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Thread: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

  1. #91
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    I also think you guys critize for the way BA evaluates their talent too much. They have said time and time again that they try their best to blend stats with tools and projectability. Which is why you see Gonzalez so high on this list. Ba openly states their evaluation philosphy and they still get ragged on. Take it for what its worth, but there's no need to get upset about the way they evaluate prospects.
    Here's the problem...

    If you read that chat transcript closely, you'll see blatant methodology contradictions.

    Perez makes the list because of his defense even though he's got a limited upside. Bergolla misses the list while skilled defensively because Cooper claims he has a limited upside.

    Szymanski (college player) hasn't done much in the system and can't stay healthy, yet makes the top 10 list (at #4 no less) based on upside, yet Adam Rosales (college player) needs to "prove it" to Cooper over a "full season". That's funny to me because Rosales (297 PA) has an almost identical minor league experience level at this point versus Szymanski (302 PA) AT THE SAME LEVELS.

    And a huge head-scratcher regarding Rosales is Cooper's demand that he prove he can stay at Short when Rosales would be a top 10 guy in anyone's system at ANY position should he continue to put up the same offensive numbers as he climbs through the system. That was just a mind-blowingly dumb thing for Cooper to say and a great example of how completely arbitrary the thinking is. College middle infielder joins the system, puts up the same number of minor league PA as College outfielder, dusts College outfielder offensively, and leads his first minor league in Fielding Percentage and Double Plays, but needs to "prove it" while College outfielder ends up at #4 on the top prospect list.

    Here's another pretty good example of Cooper's fractured thought process:

    Cooper: "Admittedly, performance does matter, but when you are talking about guys still in A ball, projection still matters as much, if not more."

    Yeah...see...the thing is that "performance" and "projection" are NOT mutually exclusive concepts. If BA would figure that out, they'd do a much better job.

    And I wouldn't mind Baseball America so much if they'd actually find a consistent methodology and stick to it. It's quite obvious that they're a "tools-first" publication. Ok. Fine. Then put together a list of best tools in an organization and leave it at that. But don't insult folks who actually do care about whether or not a player can do it on the field by acting as if you're somehow "incorporating" performance data into an evaluation that is, in the end, a subjective determination based on an entirely different methodology.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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  3. #92
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    Do you have anything substantive to say about each 2004 draftee's merits? Or are you just relying on a dubious appeal to authority? I would have expected better from you.
    I think the 2004 draftees in rounds 1,2,4,5,7 have all displayed the potential that got them drafted by the Reds. Many times, draftees don't adjust to proball and don't show the potential they showed in amateur ball, for whatever reason. So in the first 2 years after the draft my modest expectations are that the draftees maintain their athleticism (i.e. don't get injured or display quick rehabilitative powers) and show their abilities frequently enough to inspire hope. In addition, the round 10 draftee - Terrell Young - was not expected to provide much the first full year in pro ball. In 2006, if this guy makes a full season club, he has the stuff to really emerge. That means that I hold out hope that these 6 players plus any others which may emerge may eventually help the ML club.

  4. #93
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Terrell Young! I'm drooling right now...

    What a freaking arm! He was hitting 97MPH in the gulf coast this season. Tag that along with a wicked curve and this guy has one of the top two or three arms in the system.

  5. #94
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Excellent points Steel.

    I was really impressed by John Sickels going back to review how his top prospects projections panned out. BA's greatest fault is that it never audits itself. It takes no responsibility for its bad projections or investigates what caused those bad projections in the hopes of avoiding similar ones in the future.

    But I came to the conclusion a number of years back that what it's doing isn't trying to determine who the actual best prospects in a system are. It's publishing the values of baseball's futures market.

    What BA just told us isn't that Homer Bailey is the Reds' best prospect. It told us that he's the Reds' most valuable prospect. Guys who seem overvalued like Szymanski, Perez and Pelland probably are the prospects the Reds should be looking to put into deals this winter.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #95
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Excellent points Steel.

    I was really impressed by John Sickels going back to review how his top prospects projections panned out. BA's greatest fault is that it never audits itself. It takes no responsibility for its bad projections or investigates what caused those bad projections in the hopes of avoiding similar ones in the future.
    Sickels impresses me as well. The very fact that he's willing to have a mock amateur draft with us dumb fans is a real big deal to me. Rather than being stand-offish, Sickels is engaging and introspective. More than anything else, that allows him to not spend half his time trying to figure out how to excuse away his misses.

    But I came to the conclusion a number of years back that what it's doing isn't trying to determine who the actual best prospects in a system are. It's publishing the values of baseball's futures market. What BA just told us isn't that Homer Bailey is the Reds' best prospect. It told us that he's the Reds' most valuable prospect.
    Oh, no doubt. I just wish they'd use this disclaimer:

    "Baseball America does not specialize in ranking prospects based on probability. That is, we have no idea whether any of the players on our lists will ever manifest their skills in a way that would allow them to actually hit, play defense, or acquire Outs for their MLB ballclub in the future. We do, however, like their physical tools and think they look hot in jeans."

    Guys who seem overvalued like Szymanski, Perez and Pelland probably are the prospects the Reds should be looking to put into deals this winter.
    There will always be a market for players whose tools outweigh their baseball skill because there are always going to be some number of teams who value the potential of tools over the projectibility of performance. Unfortunately, the current Reds front office makes them one of those teams.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  7. #96
    Stats are misleading!
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Geez Steel, you mean...you....mean you...actually....agree with me? This is weird, and I don't know what to think?!?


    -----------

    The only way you could ever "judge" whether a player is ever going to crack a big league roster is to watch them play and evaluate the success rate between what they are supposed to do, told to do, trying to do, what they are doing, and whether or not they succeeded.

    And if they fail, know why....the stats and numbers just don't tell you that. Sorry, but it's true.

    And a deep knowledge of mechanics and strategy doesn't hurt.

    That's why you see some rook making his ML debut, go 3 for 6, or hit a home run in consecutive at bats and yet the team will turn around and send him back down to the minors, meanwhile another player will get the call go 0-7 and stick around.

    And it's not just their defense....

    It's their gameplan, and approach at the plate. No matter what the success, you have to be able to play the game right. You have to know what you are doing at all times.

    -------------------------------------

    Besides, I say stats are misleading and not a very accurate barometer to a player's value. But I don't believe they are completely meaningless, they have a place in baseball, if you take them with a grain of salt and know what to, and not to, read in them.

    ------------------------------------

    As far as elaborating on Mr. Cooper, and Baseball America, or MLB experts in general, I definitely think they fall under the "old" ideology of judging the "look" of a player. And I think they are "looking" at the wrong things.

    This pitcher is a true prospect because he hit's 95 mph on the gun, and this one needs more seasoning because he can't get it over 90 consistently?!?

    Tell that to Greg Maddux, or Mark Buerhle, or Jamie Moyer, or on and on and on......

    Who cares if they are drafted in the first round or look good on the mound, or in the batters box. Who cares if a player weighs 350 lbs, or a team drafts 3 Leprachauns in a row. Or dwarves for that matter. All that matters is if they can execute a gameplan with any level of success.

    I mean be honest, how many of you here actually predicted the call ups of players like Chris Denorfia, or Jason Standridge, or Brian Shackelford?

    I know on another message board I was on this season alot of people were shocked and appalled that Standridge and Shackelford got the call over Booker.
    And the numbers don't back up the move, but, there you go.......a perfect example.

    These guys, Cooper, BA, etc...are definitely trying to select who is going to be on the next $6,000 rookie card, or poster child or prime time teen idol on WB.

    Give it up, just watch them play, and try and determine who plays the game right....forget the bells and whistles....and stop trying to blow smoke up our @#$$.......

    Not to mention they are being paid for their opinions and they have to sell papers, so to speak. Doesn't make them right.

  8. #97
    Stats are misleading!
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    80% warned?!?

    Doesn't look like I am going to stick around long enough to get my -50.....oh well.


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