Moderator: J.J. Cooper will begin taking your Reds questions at 2 p.m. ET
Moderator: Hi guys, here we go, maybe a minute or two early. Fire away with your Reds queries.
Q: Trevor from Davis, Ca asks:
what kind of player do you see Joey Votto being? Is there a current major league player you would compare him to?
A: J.J. Cooper: I'll have to stick with a comp that I think John Manuel came up with first last year: Brian Daubach. Like Daubach, Votto has shown (at times) a pretty good batting eye with decent lefty pop, although Votto has a chance to have a little more power than Daubach had. There are reasons for more concern about Votto than a year ago, but the Reds have reason to hope that his FSL struggles were more of an aberration than a sign that more experienced pitchers have found holes.
Q: Rho from Korea asks:
How how of a ceiling does Bailey have? Real #1 starter? Does he compare to Beckett?
A: J.J. Cooper: The comparisons to Beckett are understandable considering they are both fireballing Texans. And their stuff at this age is pretty similar (As a 19-year-old, Beckett was 93-94 mph, touching 97 with a plus 12-6 curveball and a developing changeup). Bailey has the ceiling of being a No. 1 starter, because he has two plus pitches and the potential for a third average pitch, but to become a No. 1, he also has to develop plus command and plus makeup. As far as his command goes, it's not plus yet, but few hard-throwing 19-year-olds have plus command, it develops. As far as has makeup, the Reds love his competitive nature, but he's also made it clear that baseball isn't his entire life. That's a plus as far as being a well-rounded adult, but he'll have to show that he's willing to pay the price in terms of effort and hard work that it takes to be a major league ace. He has a chance to be the No. 1 that the Reds have been waiting years for, but it's a ways away.
Q: Joe from Long Beach, CA asks:
What happened to Chris Dickerson? I know he's not supposed to be the next big thing, but after his success at Dayton in 2004, I expected him to move forward, not regress.
A: J.J. Cooper: If we were having this chat in late June, we would have been talking about the big steps forward he made. Dickerson's season fell apart in late July. He seemed to wear down and he got too focused on hitting home runs, which actually led to his power disappearing. Dickerson's tools compare favorably with almost anyone in the organization, but he's got a slew of CFs right behind him (Szymanski and Bruce) that means he better turn those tools into production soon.
Q: Jeff Brown from Chicago asks:
I noticed that Bobby Basham pitched very well at the end of last season in Double AA for the Lookouts. Has he returned to form of a few years ago as a potential pitching prospect?
A: J.J. Cooper: He hasn't returned to the form he had before the injuries, but the Reds were encouraged, as he showed increasing arm strength while staying healthy. He was pitching at 87-88 mph for much of the season, well off of the low 90s he sat at before the labrum tear, and his slider isn't the plus-plus pitch it was before. But by the end of the season, Basham was touching 92-93 mph again, and his slider showed improvement. It's unlikely he'll ever be the pitcher he would have been pre-injury, but the Reds have some hope that he'll still be a useable major leaguer, as they expect him to show more improvement next season as he continues to build back his arm strength.
Q: Jeff Brown from Chicago asks:
Was Phil Dumatrait on your radar to make the top ten? I find it intriguing that he was left off having made the list the last few seasons. I am sure that despite his low ERA control is his limiting factor. Can we also attribute his omission to a higher quality pool of talent in the Reds farm system?
A: J.J. Cooper: Dumatrait was one of a couple of guys who just missed the top 10. You hit the nail on the head, Dumatrait's command just wasn't there this year. He did a good job of pitching out of jams and limiting the damage that all of his walks did. Also, his ERA is a little misleading, as he also gave up 13 unearned runs. A lot of times, command is the last thing to come back after Tommy John, so next season will be a big test for Dumatrait. If he can improve his command, his stuff and pitchability means he could be a useful backend of the rotation starter, but command is the key.
Q: Jeff Brown from Chicago asks:
Do you know injured pitching prospects Thomas Pauly and Richie Gardner are supposed to be healthy for the 2006 season? If healthy, which do you think has a higher ceiling?
A: J.J. Cooper: If both of them are healthy, I'd say Gardner has a slightly higher ceiling, just because of his feel for pitching. But neither of them is healthy right now. The Reds are pretty tight-lipped about exactly when the two are expected to return to the mound, so we have to do a little tea-leaf reading. Neither have been put on the 40-man roster, and Pauly was not sent to instructs after team doctor Tim Kremcheck had said he would be ready to go by instructs at the time of the surgery. I'd expect both to pitch at some point in 2006, but I wouldn't be surprised if neither of them was ready on Opening Day. And as in most shoulder surgery cases, I'd be surprised if they were back to their pre-injury form in 2006.
Q: Greg from Alex City, Al asks:
How big an upside does LeCure have and how close to the Top Ten was he? Do you consider the Reds 2005 draft an improvement over the last few drafts? Thanks, GC
A: J.J. Cooper: Sorry, phone call that I had to take led to a break there. Lecure wasn't in the top 15 consideration, but he'll make the top 30. Comparing this Reds draft to the recent drafts is somewhat of an easy curve, as the 2000, 2001 and 2002 drafts were largely black holes that left the system trying to restock. But yeah, I think that the 2004 draft and the 2005 draft have definitely been improvements. Bailey and Bruce are two top-level additions to a system in need of high ceiling talent, and Szymanski and Wood are also high-ceiling guys. In the past two drafts, the Reds have also taken chances on guys like Philippe Valiquette and Rafael Gonzalez that could end up paying off as being low-cost, high ceiling guys as well.
Q: Jon from Peoria asks:
Dayton struggled again this year record-wise and there weren't too many guys that had good statistical years. Is there anybody at that level besides Bailey and Szymanski to keep an eye on? What are your thoughts on Bobby Mosby?
A: J.J. Cooper: I think first baseman Tonys Gutierrez is a nice sleeper. He's a good defensive first baseman who has shown the ability to hit for average, draw a walk and has developing power. Adam Rosales, the shortstop during the second half was also a nice find for the Reds. He has an unconventional swing, but it seems to work, and his other tools are better than expected.
Q: Tom T from Houston asks:
What do you think Zach Ward's ceiling is? I hear he's supposed to have great stuff, but after the team shut him down post-draft he hasn't pitched a professional inning. Do they view him as a potential #1#2 guy, or is it just too early to tell?
A: J.J. Cooper: Ward doesn't project as a No. 12, but he could end up being a solid middle of the rotation guy. His delivery caused concern for some scouts, but the Reds pitching instructors looked at it and said they believed it would be OK, and he has been durable throughout his college career. He has the chance to have two plus pitches, which gives him a chance to move quickly in a Reds system that needs pitching.
Q: Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks:
J.J.: Thanks for addressing Reds' prospect Q's today. I've been following Homer Bailey since his remarkable senior year in High School. I know all about his pitching ability. My question regards his attitude (not to be assumed as negative) about playing baseball. I read the comments posted in BA last season about baseball being more of a job than a passion for Homer. I took them as light-hearted and somewhat comical. I find it difficult to believe that Homer would not have played baseball his entire life had he not enjoyed it. He wouldn't be as good as he is if he wasn't competitive. In that post Homer said he and his friends never talk about baseball. I find it hard to believe none of the players on his state championship team were his friends. I also find it hard to believe that if they were, they never discussed baseball. I took the whole thing as more of a joke. I heard him speak to Jonathan Mayo last season. He spoke very maturely and professionally about his craft and the difficulties in finding a rhythm in the tandem system. Is anybody in the Reds' organization truly concerned that Bailey does not take baseball seriously?
A: J.J. Cooper: No one in the Reds organization has raised any questions of his makeup with me in my discussions with them, and in my (very, very limited) meeting with Bailey, he was very professional. But I would say that its not an attribute that you want to promote, and while you say that you can't believe that a player would play baseball all these years if it wasn't a love of theirs, ask Jeff Kent. He's carved out a very long, and very lucrative career as a baseball player despite the fact that he admits that he only does it because its his job, and he has no interest in the game when he's not being paid to play. I'm not trying to say that Bailey has shown any signs of being unwilling to work, but I do think he meant what he said when he said that baseball was his job.
Q: Jim from Vermont asks:
What is Tyler Pelland's upside? Can he be a front of the rotation starter or is he a 4th or 5th at best? Also, any thought about making him a closer? He seems to resemble Billy Wagner quite a bit with his velocity, size and the fact he is a lefty.
A: J.J. Cooper: Have to disagree with you on a Billy Wagner comp. Pelland is significantly bigger than Wagner, and when it comes to velocity, there is no comparison. That's not a knock on Pelland, but Wagner's velocity is one of those rare, "arm touched by God" kind of things. He was sitting at 96-97 mph as a starter, and touching 100 mph when he was coming up through the minors. If you're looking for a best-case comp for Pelland, at least one scout has mentioned Mike Hampton. Pelland doesn't project right now as a front-end of the rotation starter because he doesn't have a consistent second plus pitch, he projects more as a No. 3 or No. 4, which would suit the Reds just fine if he can continue to progress.
Q: Jack Logan from Oakland, CA asks:
The Reds were once very high on Ty Howington before he boarded the team's injury train. However, I noticed he pitched at the Rookie level at the tail of last year. In your opinion does he have a chance to resurface this year?
A: J.J. Cooper: He has a chance to resurface, as he was slowly worked his way back into pitching at the very end of the year, but he's a long ways away from getting back to where he was, and we're talking about a guy who has essentially missed two entire seasons since last taking the mound. At this point, anything he can give the Reds is a bonus.
Q: Jim from Coral Gables asks:
What are your opinions on two of the more impressive prospects on the Sarasota roster, Calvin Medlock and Chris Dickerson. I know neither of them are huge prospects but both were impressive when I saw them.
A: J.J. Cooper: I've already talked about Dickerson, so to answer your question about Medlock. He did a lot of things to help his prospect status this season. In his second taste of high A, he showed a better curveball and better arm speed. As sleepers go, he's one of the more interesting guys the Reds have, although he's not a top prospect.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
Who are some of the guys from the 2005 draft that we should watch out for as far as having some breakout campaigns in 2006?
A: J.J. Cooper: Bruce and Wood are the obvious two. After them, Ward is another guy who could emerge in 2006.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
Is a Travis Wood Scott Kazmir a fair comparison; both undersized hard throwing high school lefties. Or does the fact that Kazmir has the good breaking ball and Wood lacks one knock off the comparison?
A: J.J. Cooper: Not really a fair comparison. Kazmir is a high 90s power pitcher whose fastballslider combo can be unhittable. Wood is more of a low-mid 90s fastballchangeup guy with a changeup that is rarely seen in a first-year high school guy. Wood's good, but Kazmir was considered the best high school arm coming out of his class, Wood looks to be one of the best arms to come out of his class.
Q: Don from Rosemont, IL asks:
Does Denorfia have enough ability to be a starting OF or does he project more as a utility guy?
A: J.J. Cooper: In the right situation, Denorfia is the kind of guy who could be a useful starting OF. He doesn't do anything to blow you away, but he just does everything well. He has the misfortune of being ready to play at a position that the Reds are overstocked at, but if given a chance, I think he's a guy who could put up a .290.370.450 year with good defense and speed, which is very useful.
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
Where would Bruce or Bailey rank in a good system's top ten, like the dodgers'?
A: J.J. Cooper: Hmmm, interesting question. The Dodgers are a system where the No. 15 guy looks like a pretty sure thing, so that's a tough system to break into. Bailey would make the top 3-4 in almost any system I'd say. He compares favorably with Mark Rogers, who is No. 2 in the Brewers system, which is still a pretty talented system. A guy like Bruce may drop to No. 4-5 in some other systems, simply because he's yet to play full-season ball. You'd love to be able to rank him a little lower to let him prove himself in a full-season league before he sits at No. 2, but his tools compare favorably with most outfield prospects.
Q: Steve from Owltown asks:
Where does Rice alum Paul Janish fit in the mix? There was discussion about his fielding being ready for the big time? He was hurt last year but seemed to be getting traction?
A: J.J. Cooper: Janish is a great fielder, although he has to rehab his arm after Tommy John surgery. The T.J. will not help his rise through the system, but its his bat that will determine his ceiling. He's got the glove to be a major leaguer, he just needs to prove he's strong enough at the plate to move up.
Q: Steve from Yellow Jacket Alley, Texas asks:
Is Steven Kelly ranked in the top 30? What role do you see for him?
A: J.J. Cooper: Little know Baseball America fact, editor-in-chief John Manuel has Steve Kelly's cap from a visit he made to the Rusty C when he was our college maven. If Kelly hadn't been shutdown with elbow problems, he would have made a run at the top 30. As it is, he's a potential No. 5 starter with fringy stuff but a feel for pitching. Guys like that need to have the breaks line up for them to make it to the majors and stick, but it does happen.
Q: Scott Grauel from cleveland asks:
i would like to hear your thoughts on dane sardinha and dustin mosely. do they project as major league regulars or not? it looks as though you feel miguel perez has much more upside then dane? and if you do feel they will contribute, when?
A: J.J. Cooper: Catchers often take longer to develop offensively than other positions because of the demands of working behind the plate. But that said, the time for Sardinha to show he can develop offensively is starting to run out. He'll be 27 just a couple of days after Opening Day, and he's put up a .300+ OBP only once in five minor league seasons. Perez is as good as Sardinha behind the plate, with a better arm, and with more of a chance to improve offensively to a point where he could be a No. 1 catcher. Mosley's no longer in the system, as the Angels picked him up in the Ramon Ortiz trade before the 2005 season.
Q: Nate from Denver asks:
Hi JJ, thanks for doing the chat. Has the minor league system as a whole improved under Dan O'Brien? What changes do you think have improved the farm, and what changes do you think still need to be made(aside from cutting down on injuries)?
A: J.J. Cooper: I do think the system has shown signs of improvement over the last two years, although it still has a ways to go. I happen to have a 2003 prospect handbook here, and if you compare the top 10 from that year (Gruler, Basham, Pena, Encarnacion, Moseley, Howington, Aramboles, Larson, Hall, Schramek) this one matches up pretty well. The decision to go to a tandem-starter system in the lower minors is a case of trying to do something to fix the injury problem. It hasn't always worked, but it is a sign of being proactive to try to fix a glaring problem. A couple of years ago, the Reds were continually hamstrung by budget problems when the draft rolled around. They still aren't going to go way over slot for guys, but the willingness to sign Bailey and Bruce in the past couple of years is a clear sign that the team is putting more emphasis on bringing in high-ceiling talents.
Q: Nate from Denver asks:
Travis Wood seems to be a lot better than most, including Baseball America, thought he would be coming out of the draft. If he can develope that 3rd pitch, what do you see as his ceiling? Does he have front line stuff?
A: J.J. Cooper: Reports going into the draft that we had said he has was a fastball pitcher with a decent changeup. The change is a lot better than that, which gives him a higher ceiling. Lefties with fastballs and changeups can go a long ways, he's a long way off, but he has the chance to be a solid No. 2 if he develops over the next 3-4 years.
Q: Nate from Denver asks:
The Reds seem to have a pretty good top 3, but after that, does the list drop off talent wise? It sounds like BJ has a good ceiling, but to only have a little over 250 professional at bats, and be ranked number 4? Does that reflect weakness in the Reds system?
A: J.J. Cooper: I think your assesment is pretty fair as far as where a drop-off occurs. The Reds number of low-risk, high ceiling guys falls off pretty quick. After No. 3 the list is a combination of high-risk, high-reward guys (Szymanski and Gonzalez for example) and some lower risk, lower-reward guys (Chick and Denorfia for example). Denorfia almost assuredly will be a major leaguer, although he's unlikely to be an all-star. Gonzalez could be a No. 2 on a big league staff, but he also could never make it out of Double-A.
Q: Josh from Phoenix asks:
What about Carlos Guevara & David Shafer - who were both left off the list. It seems to be that both could be quick moving relivers who could rocket thru the system next year if given the right chance. I know Guevara tends to be a one trick pony with his screwball, but he's put up impressive numbers for two straight years. Shafer seemed lights up before his promotion to AA.
A: J.J. Cooper: It's a copout by me, but I want to see Guevera do it at Double-A. His KIP has been very nice for two years now, but there are a number of one-pitch, trick pitch guys who have dominated lower levels and then hit a wall in Double-A. One that comes to mind is Todd Pennington, an Indians reliever who dominated in low-A and high A but has seemed to hit a wall up to now in Double-A. Shafer will make the top 30, but his move to the bullpen full time means he has a lower ceiling than a year ago, when he still projected as a starter.
Q: Josh from Phoenix asks:
Calvin Medlock has put up numbers for the last two seasons that suggest he could be one of the Reds best pitching prospects yet he is not included. Any particular reason why?
A: J.J. Cooper: Medlock will make the top 30, but the list of successful righty avg fastballplus-changeup guys in the majors isn't very long, which worked against him in the rankings. He'll need to continue refining his curveball if he's going to make it to the majors. He does have an advanced feel for pitching.
Q: Josh from Phoenix asks:
Rafael Gonzales in the Top 10? Is the inclusion of an overweight pitcher who has a career 1.50WHIP in 100+ pro innings a commentary on how bad the Reds system is or is there more that meets the eye with him?
A: J.J. Cooper: There is some more than meets the eye, which in the case of a guy Rafael's size, is saying something. Gonzalez makes the top 10 on projection. His stuff could end up being only a notch below Bailey's if he gets in better shape and improves his command. Admittedly he's a high-risk ranking, but stuff like his is relatively rare.
Q: Seamus from the woods of New England asks:
What happened to William Bergolla? He was on the list last year, goes to AAA and hits .292 at age 22 with solid defense and speed, and drops lower on the prospect ladder? Has the system improved, or did he show a critical weakness?
A: J.J. Cooper: Bergolla just barely missed the top 10. No critical weakness, just a sign that he's a defensespeed second baseman has a somewhat limited ceiling. His bat could develop, as he's still young for a guy on the cusp of the majors, but right now he doesn't hit for power or get on-base much, which limits him to a bottom of the order guy.
Q: Scott Lindsey from Phoenix, Arizona asks:
How close did Kevin Howard come to the list? Does he just project as a utility guy, a regular, or the new breed of uber utitility player (i.e. Chone Figgins)? Does he have the power to eventually hit 20 homers, or more of 10-15?
A: J.J. Cooper: Howard does project as a bat-first utility guy, which is an unusual role. He doesn't really stand out anywhere defensively, but his line-drive swing could make him a useful .290 hitter with 10-15 homers at the major league level one day, if a team will live with below-average defense.