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Thread: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

  1. #16
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Ricardo Cabesa
    yes, especially with the inclusion of Perez and Gonzalez.
    I was a little stumped by Gonzalez, but BA has been pretty enamoured with Perez' catch and throw skills.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
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  3. #17
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by ochre
    Yep. I was just thinking the same about Medlock particularly. They must think he's too short.

    I believe BA has seen Rosales as a fluke. I think its based on how they rated him coming out of college.
    Leaving Rosales off that list is a crime.

    Freakin' guy posts .998 and .918 OPS seasons in his last two college seasons then just keeps on trucking while advancing up the minor league food chain. Didn't miss a beat, led Pioneer League Shortstops in Fielding Percentage (.983) and DP's (29) while smacking the cover off the ball and then only got better offensively at Sarasota. Even if he doesn't end up at SS (we all know how that goes), the guy has "fast track" written all over him if he continutes to hit.

    Medlock is a guy who scouts keep saying doesn't have the pure stuff to get folks out but then just keeps getting folks out. At less than 6'0" tall, I can see where someone would project him down a list, but to float names like Perez and Chick instead of Medlock at this point is pretty silly.

    BA's schtick has been to routinely hype guys they've hyped in the past. It's convenient, but stupid.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  4. #18
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Partially, though I'm more surprised by the absence of Medlock and Rosales.
    I'm asking here, because I don't know, but isn't 23 a little old to be pitching in high A ball?
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  5. #19
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2
    I'm asking here, because I don't know, but isn't 23 a little old to be pitching in high A ball?
    He turned 23 on November 8th, 2005 according to thebaseballcube.com.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  6. #20
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2
    I'm asking here, because I don't know, but isn't 23 a little old to be pitching in high A ball?
    You mean Guevara, right?

    Yeah, it's about a year older than the norm, but it's not wantonly out of line.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  7. #21
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan
    I was actually trying to make the point that the cavalry won't be arriving any time soon because there is no cavalry.

    Period.
    You don't think Baily, Wood, or Perez have serious ML potential?

    Why not?

    Now that Bowden-hurry-up-and-get-here-if-your-arm-doesn't-blow-out is gone, they have a chance to develop at a higher percentage pace....

  8. #22
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    He turned 23 on November 8th, 2005 according to thebaseballcube.com.
    Thanks Steel. For some reason I thought his birthday was early in the year.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  9. #23
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    You mean Guevara, right?

    Yeah, it's about a year older than the norm, but it's not wantonly out of line.

    I was refering to Medlock. Didn't he spend the year at Sarasota? But as Steel pointed out, he wasn't as old as I gave him credit for being. My bad for relying on memory and not looking it up first.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  10. #24
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Milezinni
    You don't think Baily, Wood, or Perez have serious ML potential?

    Why not?

    Now that Bowden-hurry-up-and-get-here-if-your-arm-doesn't-blow-out is gone, they have a chance to develop at a higher percentage pace....
    Perez isn't a pitcher ... though his chances might be better if he were because he's from the Dan Sardinha school of hitting.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #25
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    He's having a pretty good winter. Whatever that's worth
    .289/.357/.421 (Perez)
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  12. #26
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2
    I was refering to Medlock. Didn't he spend the year at Sarasota? But as Steel pointed out, he wasn't as old as I gave him credit for being. My bad for relying on memory and not looking it up first.
    Yeah, that threw me for a moment. Medlock's actually on a pretty good track. Say he does well in AA next year and then in AAA in 2007. In that case he'd probably debut in the majors in late 2007 at age 24. Aaron Harang just got over the hump at age 27. Brandon Claussen's hoping to follow in his footsteps at age 27. Medlock could be in his first full major league season at age 25 if he progresses on schedule. Though his GB/FB ratio concerns me.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  13. #27
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Leaving Rosales off that list is a crime.

    Freakin' guy posts .998 and .918 OPS seasons in his last two college seasons then just keeps on trucking while advancing up the minor league food chain. Didn't miss a beat, led Pioneer League Shortstops in Fielding Percentage (.983) and DP's (29) while smacking the cover off the ball and then only got better offensively at Sarasota. Even if he doesn't end up at SS (we all know how that goes), the guy has "fast track" written all over him if he continutes to hit.

    Medlock is a guy who scouts keep saying doesn't have the pure stuff to get folks out but then just keeps getting folks out. At less than 6'0" tall, I can see where someone would project him down a list, but to float names like Perez and Chick instead of Medlock at this point is pretty silly.

    BA's schtick has been to routinely hype guys they've hyped in the past. It's convenient, but stupid.
    I'd probably have both in my top 6 or so. The reasons I listed were the only things I could think of as far as reasons (poor) to leave them off.
    4009



  14. #28
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Yeah, that threw me for a moment. Medlock's actually on a pretty good track. Say he does well in AA next year and then in AAA in 2007. In that case he'd probably debut in the majors in late 2007 at age 24. Aaron Harang just got over the hump at age 27. Brandon Claussen's hoping to follow in his footsteps at age 27. Medlock could be in his first full major league season at age 25 if he progresses on schedule. Though his GB/FB ratio concerns me.

    Why does his GB/FB concern you? Don't get me wrong, I know its below 1, and that is a concern, but I am not sure how much of one. While there is some correlation between HR and GB/FB, the magnitude of the correlation coefficient is on the order of .35 or so (for the majors). Not particularly substantial. I guess, what I am trying to get at is that he has had good HR/9, I think in both of his years. Once in a hitters park and the other in a pitchers league. I guess the telling year will be the next when he has to adjust to AA.

    Also, are there any studies relating GB/FB ratio in the minors? I am not aware of any. I am just a little suspect of it, at least in the minors. It just seems that in the lower minors there are lower GB/FB ratios to me. I haven't looked at it totally yet, so this is why I guess I am asking. Just a quick look is all that I have given it. It seems to me that superior pitchers in the minors may get more pop ups than as they progress, thereby making the GB/FB ratio difficult to predict as a player moves up.

  15. #29
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Yeah, that threw me for a moment.

    Though his GB/FB ratio concerns me.

    If people could only read my mind (or I could could type my thoughts more clearly), my life would be so much easier.

    These are the career numbers for Medlock. No wonder you like this guy.
    K/9 - 9.18
    K/BB - 3.91
    WHIP - 1.14

    Doesn't look like he has a problem missing bats.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  16. #30
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    Why does his GB/FB concern you? Don't get me wrong, I know its below 1, and that is a concern, but I am not sure how much of one. While there is some correlation between HR and GB/FB, the magnitude of the correlation coefficient is on the order of .35 or so (for the majors). Not particularly substantial. I guess, what I am trying to get at is that he has had good HR/9, I think in both of his years. Once in a hitters park and the other in a pitchers league. I guess the telling year will be the next when he has to adjust to AA.

    Also, are there any studies relating GB/FB ratio in the minors? I am not aware of any. I am just a little suspect of it, at least in the minors. It just seems that in the lower minors there are lower GB/FB ratios to me. I haven't looked at it totally yet, so this is why I guess I am asking. Just a quick look is all that I have given it. It seems to me that superior pitchers in the minors may get more pop ups than as they progress, thereby making the GB/FB ratio difficult to predict as a player moves up.
    I don't know about studies, but it's always seemed to me that the upper minors (and the California League) is where previously successful flyball pitchers tend to encounter longball problems. Once they run into more mature hitters those flyballs start to travel a little farther and trouble can ensue. In general, I'm down on flyball pitchers these days. Oh, I wouldn't mind Curt Schilling or John Smoltz, but the Reds have bitten into too much electrified flyball cheese of late. Medlock had a 0.7 ratio last year. It's not a death sentence by any means, but it does cause me some concern that it could lead to a steep increase in his homer totals. The good news is that he's had no problem in that area up until now (except for his brief stint in Potomac and that may have been the result of being advanced too quickly). Hopefully Medlock follows the Ryan Madson path, where no one loves him too much and he can learn from a year-long stop at every level.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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