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Thread: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

  1. #31
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    This list makes me sad.
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
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  3. #32
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord
    i just have this weird feeling the Reds (read as O'Brien) are ignoring him because Baseball America is ignoring him.
    Actually, it usually works the other way around. For the team-by-team prospect lists, BBA relies pretty heavilly on the teams internal assessment of their prospects. That often leads to productive guys getting left off of the list because the parent organization doesn't think they have a great 'ceiling'.

  4. #33
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook
    Actually, it usually works the other way around. For the team-by-team prospect lists, BBA relies pretty heavilly on the teams internal assessment of their prospects. That often leads to productive guys getting left off of the list because the parent organization doesn't think they have a great 'ceiling'.
    Exactly. Part of what that list tells you is where the Reds' minds are at.
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  5. #34
    Stats are misleading!
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Reds "minds" are about to change heads. Hopefully.

  6. #35
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I don't know about studies, but it's always seemed to me that the upper minors (and the California League) is where previously successful flyball pitchers tend to encounter longball problems.
    For my purposes, I tend to look at HR/H ratio for pitchers in the low minors rather than straight HR/9IP.

    Some guys put up ridiculous H/IP pitch numbers in single-A and that really skews their HR/IP rate. With inexperienced pitchers, I am more concerned with the quality of contact they allow when they fail to miss bats rather than the gross results over 9IP. Bruce Chen was always a guy who put up acceptable HR/9IP ratios in the minors but once he stopped missing bats his HR/9IP rate jumped because he couldn't maintain his crazy minor league H/IP rates.

    I don't know where to slot Medlock just yet. His HR rate in his first exposure to high-A was pretty ugly, but he rebounded nicely this year in the FSL. Of course, the FSL also has a reputation as being one of the most pitcher friendly leagues in professional ball. The big question is can he hold onto the gains he made this year, or will he regress when he steps up to the Southern League.

  7. #36
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook
    For my purposes, I tend to look at HR/H ratio for pitchers in the low minors rather than straight HR/9IP.

    Some guys put up ridiculous H/IP pitch numbers in single-A and that really skews their HR/IP rate. With inexperienced pitchers, I am more concerned with the quality of contact they allow when they fail to miss bats rather than the gross results over 9IP. Bruce Chen was always a guy who put up acceptable HR/9IP ratios in the minors but once he stopped missing bats his HR/9IP rate jumped because he couldn't maintain his crazy minor league H/IP rates.

    I don't know where to slot Medlock just yet. His HR rate in his first exposure to high-A was pretty ugly, but he rebounded nicely this year in the FSL. Of course, the FSL also has a reputation as being one of the most pitcher friendly leagues in professional ball. The big question is can he hold onto the gains he made this year, or will he regress when he steps up to the Southern League.
    Great way to slice that bread. I'm using HR/H on a regular basis from here on out.

    The Southern League can be pretty pitcher friendly too, so Medlock, assuming he keeps maturing, might not run into any longball demons until Indianapolis.

    FWIW, I love what he's done to date, it's just that one proclivity that makes me a little nervous.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #37
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Great way to slice that bread. I'm using HR/H on a regular basis from here on out.

    The Southern League can be pretty pitcher friendly too, so Medlock, assuming he keeps maturing, might not run into any longball demons until Indianapolis.

    FWIW, I love what he's done to date, it's just that one proclivity that makes me a little nervous.
    All the more reason to be pimping him hard. Shine him up as a top 2-3 prospect and use him in a trade.
    4009



  9. #38
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Not me,

    I like to watch the pitcher in a game. See what kind of stuff he has overall, and see how he uses it to get batters to hit into the various defensive alignments based on the various situations that come up.

    See how he pitches to situational baseball. Because in my mind, that's all that matters.

    I factor in what I know about the strategic tendencies of the Coach, and then try to come away with an impression of whether or not he could succeed under the coaches strategy, or was it a case of being in the wrong "system".

    One of the reasons Coaches get fired is because they can't utilize the strengths of his players into a strategy that works.

    Is that the pitchers fault?

    I mean, if he is pitching into the strategy devised by the coaching staff, and get's rocked unmercilessly, is that the fault of the pitcher?

    Or is the pitcher missing his spots? And just can't work in anyone's system? Is his stuff "off" today?

    90+% of the pitchers in baseball do not call their own game, so, who is a good pitcher, and who isn't?

  10. #39
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Puffy
    This list makes me sad.
    why? rock bottom is only barely above us

  11. #40
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    why? rock bottom is only barely above us
    Just curious on your thoughts about the BA rankings since you've been known to make a Reds top prospects list every now and then. I haven't been able to muster a list in months. I get lost somewhere around number three and figure there's no way I'll make it to ten.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  12. #41
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Farm system 2003-2005 reminds me of 1994-1997 except that they can't blame Marge

  13. #42
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    Farm system 2003-2005 reminds me of 1994-1997 except that they can't blame Marge
    That's basically my take too.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  14. #43
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    Farm system 2003-2005 reminds me of 1994-1997 except that they can't blame Marge
    This list makes me sad.
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
    - - Rowdy Roddy Piper

    "It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
    - - Fletch

  15. #44
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    Farm system 2003-2005 reminds me of 1994-1997 except that they can't blame Marge
    Does that mean that you believe Wily Mo Pena, Edwin Encarnacion and Brandon Claussen will turn out to be less successful than Jason LaRue, Aaron Boone and Brett Tomko? (all six players mentioned were prospects that were given significant roles for the ML team)
    Or are you talking about the drafts for those years? For the sake of comparison, I think the bad years for Reds drafts were 1999-2002 (only yielding Ben Broussard- with hope for Joey Votto and Chris Denorfia). 2003 has turned out badly, but 2004 and 2005 still hold promise.

  16. #45
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America rates Reds top 10 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook
    For my purposes, I tend to look at HR/H ratio for pitchers in the low minors rather than straight HR/9IP.

    Some guys put up ridiculous H/IP pitch numbers in single-A and that really skews their HR/IP rate. With inexperienced pitchers, I am more concerned with the quality of contact they allow when they fail to miss bats rather than the gross results over 9IP.
    The GB/FB doesn't give you a cause for concern then? It seems to me that this would be of paramount importance, especially if a pitcher began to miss bats. I'm asking, because GB/FB is the first thing I look at. It's troublesome to me if a pitcher is getting most of his non strikeout outs, on fly balls.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.


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