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Thread: Carson Palmer signs Extension

  1. #151
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Steel,

    You forgot to post the performance in Heinz Field for Carson, I suppose since it didn't fit your line of arguing. I know you are trying real hard to come to the conclusion that the Squealers are simply the better team regardless of the injury. From what I can see, about the only thing I've agreed on with you is that these are two pretty even teams (I think it was you that said that), so it would seem that putting in a mediocre QB for nearly the entire game is going to have a significant impact on the rest of the game, regardless of how you try to explain away by "Kitna did great." Yea, for a half, everyone knows that. But it was obvious he didn't have what it took in round 2. But the Squealers just won the game straight up? Unfortunately, a DLman decided to make that not possible.
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  3. #152
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    That's incredibly easy. He could have straightened his right arm and planted it on the ground to absorb his fall. Instead, he wrapped it around Palmer's leg.

    Late hit.
    Go watch the video replay again. Kimo's shoulder connected with Palmer's knee before the arm wrapped. Kimo could have put his arm straight out and that knee would have still been toast. It actually could have been worse. At that angle, with that kind of momentum, 300-pound bowling balls don't stop on a dime like that. But frankly, he shouldn't have been expected to. Kimo wasn't trying to wrap up at the knee. He targetted the area below the calf. Surely you've seen NFL pass rushers trip up a QB that way, haven't you? Guy was in a scrum. Saw the ballcarrier's ankle. Went for said ankle. Didn't get said ankle with surgical precision, but he certainly wasn't targetting the knee.

    And no. It wasn't a late hit. Kimo was not coming around the end unabated to the QB, nor do we have any reason to believe he knew that Palmer was in his follow-through instead of holding the ball. We see the same timing on QB "Knockdowns" all the time- including hits by players who, unlike Kimo, may have actually been able to stop their momentum. If that hit was late, then the NFL needs to create a new rule stating that pass rushers may only do jumping jacks in front of QB's.

    Kitna was afraid to throw into coverage, and he was generally afraid to throw to the sidelines. The schemes that were working were passes over the middle to Walter and Schobel. The Steelers took the middle away, and Kitna started panicking, holding onto the ball or forcing it (just like he did last week in KC). The Steelers made an adjustment, and Kitna couldn't handle it. Both contributed to what happened in the second half.
    And yet, not much of that had to do with the 31 points the Steelers scored. Basically, I'm seeing more than one Bengals fan demand that Carson Palmer should have been worth 17 additional points versus Jon Kitna in that game (I'm not saying you are...I hope). That's a BOLD assumption considering that said assumption implies that Palmer would have played perfect football and that Pitt would have never once adjusted to him.

    Carson Palmer is an excellent QB. But he's not infallable.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  4. #153
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    Steel,

    You forgot to post the performance in Heinz Field for Carson, I suppose since it didn't fit your line of arguing.
    From nfl.com:

    10/23/05- Carson Palmer (Heinz Field)

    22-38, 227 Yards- 3 TD, 0 INT, 101.5 Passer Rating.

    Both the performances I posted were Carson Palmer versus the Steelers in the 2005 regular season. Both the good and the bad.

    I know you are trying real hard to come to the conclusion that the Squealers are simply the better team regardless of the injury.
    Nope. Simply noting that any assumption that includes the Bengals (Palmer or no) as being an auto-win scenario is well off-base, as is any assumption that Palmer would have been as perfect as needed to be worth 17 additional points.

    From what I can see, about the only thing I've agreed on with you is that these are two pretty even teams (I think it was you that said that), so it would seem that putting in a mediocre QB for nearly the entire game is going to have a significant impact on the rest of the game, regardless of how you try to explain away by "Kitna did great." Yea, for a half, everyone knows that. But it was obvious he didn't have what it took in round 2. But the Squealers just won the game straight up? Unfortunately, a DLman decided to make that not possible.
    Again, no. I'm simply noting that while Palmer is consistently excellent, the assumption that he would have been a certainty to surpass Kitna's performance is going to fall on deaf ears. First, nothing is a certainty. Ironic that I must type that in response to you of all people. Secondly, Palmer has been both excellent and awful against Pitt this season.

    And, BTW- if I'd have jumped on the site and yelled and screamed about the thumb splint worn by Roethisberger last time they met "costing" the Steelers the game because of it turned him into a virtual copy of Jon Kitna, I'd have been lambasted as a first-order excuse-maker. Do you think the Bengals won the last regular season meeting straight-up? I do, regardless of the thumb injury. They couldn't overcome it. Them's the breaks.

    You just saw a team that had two ten-point leads, muffed a FG, and gave up big plays all over the place. You saw a better version of Ben Roethisberger as well- a guy who actually did have the kind of game people are assuming Carson Palmer would have had. Cedric Wilson beat your secondary silly.

    CEDRIC WILSON! GAH! Was that Kimo's fault as well? Kitna's? No. That was the Bengals defense being the Bengals defense. For some reason it reminds me of the Reds pitching. Hmn...
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  5. #154
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Steel,

    I guess what we come down to is that I don't think anyone believes it is a foregone conclusion that with Palmer, all things are possible. I haven't seen Bengals fans saying that. What we are saying is that there is a pretty darn good chance based on a season's worth of evidence, including two games with Pittsburgh and the way the game started out. All you can talk about is making up a margin that was all predicated on a total 180 degrees change in circumstances that likely affected both sides of the ball. That is where I see the disagreement.

    It is not all things equal on the other side of the ball either. Play down the psychological effect all you want, but that affected both sides of the ball and the home field advantage. In other words, what you would expect to happen did happen in such a situation. It would have been remarkable and historic (Earl Morral historic) if the opposite had occurred (Kitna leads the Bengals to victory as backup QB). So, my conclusion is that the win was tainted as soon as the knee popped. And just like that is a circumstance the Bengals could do nothing about, neither can the Steelers. It is also worth nothing, but it seems important to you that it be considered a fair and square win. Next time, tell your lard butt DLman to avoid steamrolling a QBs knees, including grabbing said knee just for effect.
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  6. #155
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    To suggest that Palmer would not have outperformed Kitna in any metric you throw out there is silly. Like objectively, empirically silly.

  7. #156
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Hmn. I'm not sure how a game that goes to halftime with the home team up by three was a 90/10 scenario after play two of the first half.
    I think you missed it ... I was saying it was 90/10 in favor of the Steelers after Palmer went down.
    You only need to win by 1. Like I said, it was a coin flip before Palmer went down. It was pretty much a 90/10 deal afterwards, it was only a matter of time before PIT exposed Kitna.
    The 15 or so guys at the party I was at pretty much all had the same feeling. I would have bet against the Bengals, and heavy at that point, despite their lead.

    And please note that Palmer had played just as badly (actually a little worse than Kitna's end result) versus Pitt during their first meeting this year.
    Well, you only have a 2 games sample to work with there, and the more recent game was more in line with his seasonal numbers. If we want to work on what was probable, he was more than likely to gravitate towards his seasonal numbers, IMO. (I know how much you like probabiltiies.)

    From my perspective, any "90/10" scenario would have to include the assumption that Carson Palmer would have played 100% mistake-free football all day long while leading the Bengals to their 6th highest point total this season in his first playoff start in the Bengals third game this season against a team that had already made him look bad. I'm just not sure how that assumption is any kind of reasonable.
    As noted above, I think we miscommunicated. Nothing was ever 90/10 in the Bengals favor in any scenario at any time.

    We DID see a dropoff in talent level with Palmer going out. But did we actually see a dropoff in performance level? Maybe. If so, was the performance gap a two TD+FG dropoff? That is, IMHO, a stretch.
    Well, it doesn't need to be a 17 pt swing for the Bengals. It only needed to be a 7+/7- scenario to tie the game up and I don't think thats far-fetched or unreasonable at all.

    Kitna was sacked 4 times and he holds the ball alot longer than Palmer. Kitna tossed 2 INTs in the second half - I'd take my chances that Palmer would not do that. How many less opportunities do you have on offense, and how many more opportunities does that lead to for the other team? More possessions, better field position, etc.

    Is Palmer worth a TD or more to the offense in the 2nd half? I'd say chances are darn good. Is Palmer worth enough yards, 1st downs, field position, lack of turnovers from limiting Pitts to one of their TDs? There is your debate in a nutshell. I say he reasonalby could have been.

    If things were different, they wouldn't be the same.
    Sure, otherwise we wouldn't have anything to discuss here.

    Do the Bengals win that game with Palmer at the helm? No way to know and too close to even postulate one way or another. As it is, they lost. Period. End of story.

    So, we look forward to next year.

    GL
    Last edited by gonelong; 01-10-2006 at 05:34 PM.

  8. #157
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup
    In the grand shcheme of things, all of this doesn't really matter at all. Indy would mop either one of them. I find it hard to believe that anyone would argue that.
    Here's one who doesn't believe it. Cincinatti played them tough in their previous meeting.
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  9. #158
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Quote Originally Posted by gonelong
    I think you missed it ... I was saying it was 90/10 in favor of the Steelers after Palmer went down.
    No, I did get it. I'm just saying that I don't see a 40% probability swing like that resting on the shoulders of just one player or position in this particular situation. If that's the case, then it's a fundamentally flawed team.

    Do I believe that the probabilities were altered when Kitna took the helm? Sure. But to go from a coin flip to nearly a zero percent chance to win that game? I don't see that and I sure didn't see that when the Bengals took a 3 point lead into halftime and then summarily drove down the field for what should have been a Field Goal.

    The Bengals should have- without any help whatesoever from anyone or anything- scored 20 points. Have even a decent defense and that should be enough to win you a playoff football game.

    Well, you only have a 2 games sample to work with there, and the more recent game was more in line with his seasonal numbers. If we want to work on what was probable, he was more than likely to gravitate towards his seasonal numbers, IMO. (I know how much you like probabiltiies.)
    But then we'd need to disregard an additional mitigating factor. That wasn't just any game. That was the kid's first playoff game ever. Palmer came into that game after sitting for the majority of the KC debacle and played his worst stretch of football in 2005 the three games prior. Got a little pick-happy during that stretch. Now, the nice thing is that Palmer's bad stretches tend to be better than your average QB. But his most recent performance certainly wasn't midseason Carson Palmer form.

    And when we're talking about what Palmer's most likely to do in a a single game, we're talking about a small sample size anyway.

    Carson Palmer is an excellent QB. But we're still at the point where we'd be expecting his absolute best in a pressurecooker environment against a team that's made him look bad once this season. I'm just saying that he can look bad. Would he have more probably looked good? Yeah. Ben Roethisberger good? No. And that's pretty much what he'd have had to do to affect the score by 17 points.

    Well, it doesn't need to be a 17 pt swing for the Bengals. It only needed to be a 7+/7- scenario to tie the game up and I don't think thats far-fetched or unreasonable at all.
    The Bengals had two 10 point leads and let Pitt back into the game both times. They had a shot at turning a three-point lead into six and screwed that up as well. Along the way, the Defense allowed Pittsburgh to hit all sorts of huge plays.

    This is sort of the same "coulda' woulda' shoulda'" stuff I heard from Bengals fans (not here) I know after the first meeting this year. Sure, anything could have happened differently. But it didn't.

    Is Palmer worth a TD or more to the offense in the 2nd half? I'd say chances are darn good. Is Palmer worth enough yards, 1st downs, field position, lack of turnovers from limiting Pitts to one of their TDs? There is your debate in a nutshell. I say he reasonalby could have been.
    And that is the crux of the disagreement. For a QB to have that large an effect on the game, we'd have to expect him to be perfect. That's what I feel is the unreasonable expectation here.

    Sure, otherwise we wouldn't have anything to discuss here.
    Exactly. And I don't want to discuss Dan O'Brien and the Reds offseason anymore either.

    Do the Bengals win that game with Palmer at the helm? No way to know and too close to even postulate one way or another. As it is, they lost. Period. End of story.

    So, we look forward to next year.
    And that's the thing. Contrary to what tr is saying, I don't "need" to feel that the Steelers won "even up". Personally, I don't care. I'm just happy they're still playing 'cause still playing (even against Indy) is better than not still playing.

    I'm just saying that I don't think it's right, given the amount of talent offensively, that the Bengals were so severely hamstrung without Carson Palmer that they should have had virtually no shot of winning that game with Kitna at the helm. Don't get me wrong- I know about performance dropoffs that are far more severe (Ben to Maddox) than a Palmer-to-Kitna switcheroo. But really, the main idea I took exception to was the opinion (not yours) that the game would have been a "rout" with Palmer, but ended up as a 14-point loss without him.

    No QB in the world is reasonably worth that kind of point spread over a single half of a football game. Well, except maybe Frank Reich. Once.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  10. #159
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    I'm just saying that I don't see a 40% probability swing like that resting on the shoulders of just one player or position in this particular situation. If that's the case, then it's a fundamentally flawed team
    I must say that this is true for the Bengals and Carson Palmer. Ironic that this also seems to describe the Pittsburgh Steelers as well? I think if we look at games in which Ben sat due to injury, the Steelers were a very different team and their record will show this too.

    If the Cincinnati Bengals lose Palmer in the last game of the pre-season for the year in 2005, what do they finish? 1st place in the division? No way. Playoffs? No way.

    If the Pittsburgh Steelers lose Ben in the last game of the pre-season for the year in 2005, what do they finish? 1st place in the division? No way as they didn't do it with him (in part b/c he was hurt some this year). Playoffs? No way.

    Makes me wonder what the NE Patriots do if Tom Brady faces the same fate. Or Indy with Peyton. This holds true for a lot of teams IMO. Da Bears being an exception this year.
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  11. #160
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Just to update everyone on Carson he apparently had surgery this afternoon. The surgery was done by Dr. Lonnie Paulos in Houston.

  12. #161
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    You guys still here?

    This thing's gonna last longer than Turk Schonert's career.
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  13. #162
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Fanatic
    Just to update everyone on Carson he apparently had surgery this afternoon. The surgery was done by Dr. Lonnie Paulos in Houston.
    Was it ACL replacement surgery?
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski

  14. #163
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966
    I must say that this is true for the Bengals and Carson Palmer. Ironic that this also seems to describe the Pittsburgh Steelers as well? I think if we look at games in which Ben sat due to injury, the Steelers were a very different team and their record will show this too.
    There's a much larger dropoff from Roethisberger to Tommy Maddox than there is from Palmer to Kitna. Miles difference. Pittsburgh was 2-0 with Charlie Batch replacing Roethisberger in games this season. They were 0-2 when they handed Maddox a starting nod and the guy lost the Jacksonville game all by himself. And in the grand scheme of things, Kitna > Batch > Maddox.

    Cincinnati is, offensively, more talented than Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is the more balanced team. The more balance you have, the better you're going to be able to deal with losing that one special guy regardless of whether said guy is missing for a single game or a season. But in this case we're talking specifically about a single game.

    Makes me wonder what the NE Patriots do if Tom Brady faces the same fate. Or Indy with Peyton. This holds true for a lot of teams IMO. Da Bears being an exception this year.
    Already happened with Brady and the Pats in the playoffs. 2001 AFC Championship Game no less. Versus the Steelers. On the road. Brady goes down and Drew Bledsoe came off the bench to help defeat the Steelers- who finished 13-3 in the regular season. Of course, the Pats defense allowed only 17 points that game. Hmn...
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  15. #164
    A Little to the Left Redsfaithful's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    versus a team that's allowed more than 30 points once
    Who was that that scored more than 30?

    You lost a lot of credibility by saying that Palmer couldn't have put up as good of a game as Ben. That's a joke, there's no comparison between the two. If Roethlisberger was anywhere near as good as Palmer then the Steelers wouldn't mind him throwing a little more. As it is they gameplan to make it so that he doesn't have to expose himself by throwing more than 20 times a game.

    We'll see this weekend how he does when he's the focus of the offense. It's not going to be pretty.
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  16. #165
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

    As it is they gameplan to make it so that he doesn't have to expose himself by throwing more than 20 times a game.
    I believe they led the NFL in highest percentage of running plays (57% or so?). Pretty sad when their running backs really aren't that good.


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