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View Poll Results: Where should HOmer Start in 06?

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  • Repeat Dayton (Low A)

    4 2.90%
  • Sarasota (High A)

    90 65.22%
  • Chattanooga (AA)

    38 27.54%
  • Louisville (AAA I'm feeling crazy)

    6 4.35%
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Thread: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

  1. #16
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by The_jbh
    I dont really think you can go in with the mentality with any player. What happens if Homer goes through a half season of utterly dominating Single A? You still keep him where he isn't challenged? Personally i say sarasota until atleast June. If he is doing EXTREMELY well push him... if not leave him in Sarasota for another 2 months. If he is still posting sub 4 era, i give him a month or 2 Chattanooga otherwise keep him in Sarasota.


    And I don't mind the tandem. I dont want to see any labrums or TJs on homer. We can't afford another gruler/howington/Basham/Pauly/Aramboles/etc.....
    What happens if he tears it up? You smile, pat him on the back and show some maturity by not progressing until he falls apart, that's what you do.

    If for once in a blue moon a Reds pitcher has an utterly dominating season, the organization should show the good sense to appreciate it without indulging the desperate, deep-seated, psycopathic urge to screw it up.

    Any kid who's being asked to take a baseball and throw it past hitters on a consistent basis is being challenged. He's being challenged to remain consistent. He's being challenged to stay healthy. He's being challenged to fight off fatigue as the season wears on. He's being challenged to remain dominant after the league gets a few looks at him and readies itself for what he's bringing to table.

    The job of the organization is to treat development like the long-term investment process it is and not react to every kid who does well like a lottery ticket that has to be cashed immediately.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  3. #17
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    The Reds learned nothing by the gross overpromotion of Tyler Pelland. I voted for a repeat at Dayton, as he did not dominate the Midwest League. I'm hoping Pelland repeats at Sarasota too, as he barely held his own, but showed a lot of flashes and an ability to miss bats.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #18
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    This is a no-brainer. If they start him in AA, it'll be an ill-conceived attempt to display success in building the pitching resources from within.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #19
    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Having Bailey repeat at Dayton is like having a C student repeat the fourth grade. Sure, he'll do better, but what's he really gaining?

  6. #20
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Certainly no higher than Sarasota given his control issues. That said, if he's very successful, he needs to move up to AA. We don't want him falling so in love with his stuff (because the A guys can't keep up with it) that he doesn't develop a 3rd pitch and refine his control.

  7. #21
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini
    Having Bailey repeat at Dayton is like having a C student repeat the fourth grade. Sure, he'll do better, but what's he really gaining?
    If he can't dominate the Midwest League, cut bait. I think he can, but he has to actually do it.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #22
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    Certainly no higher than Sarasota given his control issues. That said, if he's very successful, he needs to move up to AA. We don't want him falling so in love with his stuff (because the A guys can't keep up with it) that he doesn't develop a 3rd pitch and refine his control.
    That strikes me as exactly backwards. If you're developing a third pitch (not to mention trying to gain some modicum of control over the two pitches you have) aren't you more likely to throw it up against hitters who aren't as likely to mash it? In A ball a kid like Homer doesn't have to fear getting walloped for throwing a developing pitch anywhere near as much as he does in the high minors. Not only that, but he doesn't have to fear missing the strikezone with it as much either. So what if it's a free ball everytime he throws it on a given night, if he's able to dominate with his other two pitches (and that's no small if) then it gives him the leeway to work on the third pitch. In AA if he works into a hitter's count then he might not be able to trust the placement on curve as much and be forced to be too fine with his fastball. The higher the quality of the hitters you're facing, the less likely you are to throw a pitch in which you don't have a lot of confidence.

    The point of the minors is development and a big part of development is giving kids (especially pitchers) the room to grow. You don't willy-nilly promote every pitcher who's having a big season. Pitchers should have big seasons. You want them to get used to that and to work from a position of strength rather than always forcing them to catch up to the curve. The Reds have tried the other route and it's done nothing but fail. Time to chuck a bad idea and replace it with a good one.
    Last edited by M2; 01-05-2006 at 11:59 AM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #23
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    That strikes me as exactly backwards. If you're developing a third pitch (not to mention trying to gain some modicum of control over the two pitches you have) aren't you more likely to throw it up against hitters who aren't as likely to mash it? In A ball a kid like Homer doesn't have to fear getting walloped for throwing a developing pitch anywhere near as much as he does in the high minors. Not only that, but he doesn't have to fear missing the strikezone with it as much either. So what if it's a free ball everytime he throws it on a given night, if he's able to dominate with his other two pitches (and that's no small if) then it gives him the leeway to work on the third pitch. In AA if he works into a hitter's count then he might not be able to trust the placement on curve as much and be forced to be too fine with his fastball. The higher the quality of the hitters you're facing, the less likely you are to throw a pitch in which you don't have a lot of confidence.

    The point of the minors is development and a big part of development is giving kids (especially pitchers) the room to grow. You don't willy-nilly promote every pitcher who's having a big season Pitchers should have big seasons. You want them to get used to that and to work from a position of strength rather than always forcing them to catch up to the curve. The Reds have tried the other route and it's done nothing but fail. Time to chuck a bad idea and replace it with a good one.
    So true. Developing starting pitching is like cooking a pot roast. If you don't have time or patience, you can cook it a high temperature, get it done in about an hour, and have something available to eat. The problem is it will be tough as shoe leather, won't yield much juice, will still be a little bit pink inside but burnt to a crisp on the outside, and just won't taste very good. But if you put that baby in a slow cooker and cook it at a lower heat for several hours, man that baby will tender, juicy, be done just right both on the outside and on the inside. It will be some good eatin'. And the gravy, ummmm, ummmmm.

    Of course, the Reds have tried to microwave their pot roast and the thing isn't even edible. And it wouldn't matter if it was a prime cut of meat, it still cannot be nuked. I think its time to pull the crock pot out of the attic.
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  10. #24
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    If he can't dominate the Midwest League, cut bait. I think he can, but he has to actually do it.
    I'm sympathetic to the notion. I voted the same way you did, though mostly to balance out what I figured would be the inevitable rush of folks who'd want to overpromote him because they never met a pitching prospect they didn't want to destroy with their affection.

    For the record, I'd put him in Sarasota, not because I think he's particularly likely to click there (I'm on the fence regarding that point), but because it's where you can maximize his trade value. Ultimately Homer's value to the Reds might be in who he lands for the organization. Not that this is likely to happen, but say Johan Santana hit the market if the Twins unravel. The Reds could go all in with Homer, Kearns/Pena and some other stuff in that scenario.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  11. #25
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I'm sympathetic to the notion. I voted the same way you did, though mostly to balance out what I figured would be the inevitable rush of folks who'd want to overpromote him because they never met a pitching prospect they didn't want to destroy with their affection.

    For the record, I'd put him in Sarasota, not because I think he's particularly likely to click there (I'm on the fence regarding that point), but because it's where you can maximize his trade value. Ultimately Homer's value to the Reds might be in who he lands for the organization. Not that this is likely to happen, but say Johan Santana hit the market if the Twins unravel. The Reds could go all in with Homer, Kearns/Pena and some other stuff in that scenario.
    I see your point, but you made the same case for Pelland that I did for having him repeat Dayton for the same reason: If he's lights out there, it doesmaximize his trade value. If he struggles in Sarasota like Pelland did, and they seem to have similar control issues with electric arms, then all you do is hurt his value, and possibly over-promote to the point of ruining the kid.

    I can wait for Homer. In fact I can wait for who Homer might bring. But I bet he fetches more with an era below 3.00 than another 4+ job he did last year. He can miss bats on the weaker hitters, but he needs to miss bats on the good hitters at low A too.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #26
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    The point of the minors is development and a big part of development is giving kids (especially pitchers) the room to grow. You don't willy-nilly promote every pitcher who's having a big season. Pitchers should have big seasons. You want them to get used to that and to work from a position of strength rather than always forcing them to catch up to the curve. The Reds have tried the other route and it's done nothing but fail. Time to chuck a bad idea and replace it with a good one.
    So true. For so long, the Reds have had an organizational pitching philosophy all but indistinguishable from the Peter Principle. How's that been working out, guys?
    Not all who wander are lost

  13. #27
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    I see your point, but you made the same case for Pelland that I did for having him repeat Dayton for the same reason: If he's lights out there, it doesmaximize his trade value. If he struggles in Sarasota like Pelland did, and they seem to have similar control issues with electric arms, then all you do is hurt his value, and possibly over-promote to the point of ruining the kid.

    I can wait for Homer. In fact I can wait for who Homer might bring. But I bet he fetches more with an era below 3.00 than another 4+ job he did last year. He can miss bats on the weaker hitters, but he needs to miss bats on the good hitters at low A too.
    True, though Pelland bombed low A his first time there. Homer only struggled. If I were the farm director, what I'd want to hear from the people arguing for Sarasota is that they're willing to put their own butts on the line and guarantee that Homer will thrive in Sarasota, not giving a repeat performace of what we saw last season in Dayton.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  14. #28
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    agreed on that. Wasn't one of the reasons for promoting Pelland so he could work with Verne at Sarasota? I really hope he repeats High A. Pelland did do very well at Billings though, so he has at least had a taste of success. Bailey has yet to sip from that cup.

    I think if Bailey Repeats at Dayton and utterly dominates it, GM's will be beating the door down to get him.

    Which of course means the reds will make him untouchable... and wrongly so.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #29
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    I voted for High A, however I think that his spring training performance should (and will) be the context for his assignment. Let's see what shape he shows up in, and how flexible and strong his right arm is after a winter of no competition. If he's healthy, he has the stuff and the high expectations to be challenge him with a one-level promotion to high A.
    I recognize the arguments for "coddling" a pitcher, but do you think that any healthy man, especially a young competitive athlete, enjoys and thrives on "coddling"?
    I know that when I did well in sports as a youth, I wanted the recognition of that performance. I know I was not alone, because nearly all boys play baseball, but only some make HS varsity, and even fewer get drafted by a pro organization. The number of boys that tryout for a baseball team is substantially higher when they are 13, 14 than 16, 17. Why is that? Because most kids quit because they see repeatedly see recognition go to someone else.
    I'm not saying that treating some players carefully is not a good idea. I'm saying that this approach works for some players and personalities, but not for others.
    I think this approach is appropriate for Valiquette, Gonzalez, Wood and Terrell Young. I don't think it is suitable for Bailey and Bruce.
    Last edited by Betterread; 01-05-2006 at 01:40 PM.

  16. #30
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread
    I voted for High A, however I think that his spring training performance should (and will) be the context for his assignment. Let's see what shape he shows up in, and how flexible and strong his right arm is after a winter of no competition. If he's healthy, he has the stuff and the high expectations to be challenge him with a one-level promotion to high A.
    I recognize the arguments for "coddling" a pitcher, but do you think that any healthy man, especially a young competitive athlete, enjoys and thrives on "coddling"?
    I know that when I did well in sports as a youth, I wanted the recognition of that performance. I know I was not alone, because nearly all boys play baseball, but only some make HS varsity, and even fewer get drafted by a pro organization. The number of boys that tryout for a baseball team is substantially higher when they are 13, 14 than 16, 17. Why is that? Because most kids quit because they see repeatedly see recognition go to someone else.
    I'm not saying that treating some players carefully is not a good idea. I'm saying that this approach works for some players and personalities, but not for others.
    I think this approach is appropriate for Valiquette, Gonzalez, Wood and Terrell Young. I don't think it is suitable for Bailey and Bruce.
    Frankly, I think young athletes will do just fine moving one level per year while straining at the bit to move faster. Using your HS analogy, Homer's a middle schooler who won't be ready for the varsity for years. He'll just have to settle for stardom in Babe Ruth ball in the meantime (provided he achieves that). Ideally you want him walking into the majors someday feeling like he's ready to conquer the world. So far he hasn't conquered anything in the pros and that's why I don't think it would be all that outlandish to send him back to Dayton until he kicks that level in the pants, though I'm leaning Sarasota for him.

    It's fine to want recognition for when you've performed, but Homer didn't really perform that well. He teased that brighter days may be ahead, but he put too many people on base and allowed too many of them to score.

    I agree that ST should be the determining factor on his placement (though there isn't a force in the universe that could get me to place him above Sarasota). And if the judgment coming from the development staff is that you're likely to get more of the same from him in Sarasota as you got in Dayton in 2005, then I'd be all for sending him to Dayton with the message that he'll get to Sarasota after his MWL victory tour -- we'll recognize it when you do it.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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