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View Poll Results: Where should HOmer Start in 06?

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  • Repeat Dayton (Low A)

    4 2.90%
  • Sarasota (High A)

    90 65.22%
  • Chattanooga (AA)

    38 27.54%
  • Louisville (AAA I'm feeling crazy)

    6 4.35%
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Thread: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

  1. #31
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    M2, I think you overlooked my conditional. Homer should only move up to AA during 2006 IF he's dominating high A. This doesn't mean another 4.00 ERA. This means a 4-1 K/BB ratio, 10+ K/IP, and a 2.50 ERA -- you get the idea. I doubt that will happen.

    My point was that we don't want him developing a 3rd pitch and simultaneously losing the refined edge on his fastball and curve because he can do whatever he wants with them. You don't want to push him so fast that he loses confidence, but letting him cruise completely at high A while he's working on a change seems a bit like a wasted year.

    I honestly think he should be in high A the whole year and be armed with a solid 3rd pitch to take to Chatanooga in 2007. But if in July he's dominating high A and showing great control, I don't think he needs to stay there just because he's working on that changeup. I agree that you don't just promote somebody just b/c of a big year. Brian Reith agrees with you as well. However, if a prospect isn't being challenged, he's also likely not developing as much as he could be and very well could be developing bad habits. We don't want Bailey thinking he can get by on 95 mph heaters down the middle everytime he's in a bad spot just because his A ball counterparts can't catch up to it. I realize he's not there yet -- but he's got such great stuff, that it could happen very quickly.

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  3. #32
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    M2, I think you overlooked my conditional. Homer should only move up to AA during 2006 IF he's dominating high A. This doesn't mean another 4.00 ERA. This means a 4-1 K/BB ratio, 10+ K/IP, and a 2.50 ERA -- you get the idea. I doubt that will happen.

    My point was that we don't want him developing a 3rd pitch and simultaneously losing the refined edge on his fastball and curve because he can do whatever he wants with them. You don't want to push him so fast that he loses confidence, but letting him cruise completely at high A while he's working on a change seems a bit like a wasted year.

    I honestly think he should be in high A the whole year and be armed with a solid 3rd pitch to take to Chatanooga in 2007. But if in July he's dominating high A and showing great control, I don't think he needs to stay there just because he's working on that changeup. I agree that you don't just promote somebody just b/c of a big year. Brian Reith agrees with you as well. However, if a prospect isn't being challenged, he's also likely not developing as much as he could be and very well could be developing bad habits. We don't want Bailey thinking he can get by on 95 mph heaters down the middle everytime he's in a bad spot just because his A ball counterparts can't catch up to it. I realize he's not there yet -- but he's got such great stuff, that it could happen very quickly.
    Oh, I caught your conditional. I just don't buy into it. Like I said earlier in this thread, you're developing every time they stick a ball in your hand and send you to the mound. Consistency, health, fatigue, hitters who've got a book on you now, that's all there if a dominating pitcher sticks around to finish out the season in the league where he started.

    I also don't worry about great pitches developing into bad habits. The key is to throw the great pitch where you want it. If you can dominate hitters in the middle of the zone, that also gives you leeway to refine your control around the edges, to experiment with different ways of working hitters.

    Plus, you know what happens if a pitcher eats a league alive for a full season? His trade value shoots through the roof and he gives the entire systems a flattering spotlight. I'm not saying the Reds should be looking to trade Bailey no matter what, but options are a nice to have. We've seen what no options and constantly undercutting your prospects' trade value nets you.

    To me, the urge to promote a dominating young pitcher in midseason is kind of like finding a gorgeous woman who's intelligent, funny and a good person and then you go looking for an upgrade. Allow something good to happen for once and see where it takes you.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  4. #33
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    A little off of the subject but...

    In my earlier post from the Top 100 prospects list, Homer was number 91. That is kind of scary looking back on it since he is considered by some to be our number 1 or 2 best prospect. Does that mean we can expect one more guy in the top 100? If so we really are in trouble aren't we?

    Anyone want to guess who the top ones will be?
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  5. #34
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Oh, I caught your conditional. I just don't buy into it. Like I said earlier in this thread, you're developing every time they stick a ball in your hand and send you to the mound. Consistency, health, fatigue, hitters who've got a book on you now, that's all there if a dominating pitcher sticks around to finish out the season in the league where he started.

    I also don't worry about great pitches developing into bad habits. The key is to throw the great pitch where you want it. If you can dominate hitters in the middle of the zone, that also gives you leeway to refine your control around the edges, to experiment with different ways of working hitters.

    Plus, you know what happens if a pitcher eats a league alive for a full season? His trade value shoots through the roof and he gives the entire systems a flattering spotlight. I'm not saying the Reds should be looking to trade Bailey no matter what, but options are a nice to have. We've seen what no options and constantly undercutting your prospects' trade value nets you.

    To me, the urge to promote a dominating young pitcher in midseason is kind of like finding a gorgeous woman who's intelligent, funny and a good person and then you go looking for an upgrade. Allow something good to happen for once and see where it takes you.

    Fair enough. In Bailey's case I really agree with your assessment. At his age and experience level, a full year in high A is certainly called for. I suppose my thought is more with that guy who's say 22-23 and not going to gain anything by blowing away his competition.

  6. #35
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    Fair enough. In Bailey's case I really agree with your assessment. At his age and experience level, a full year in high A is certainly called for. I suppose my thought is more with that guy who's say 22-23 and not going to gain anything by blowing away his competition.
    In that case, I'd agree with you. Age and experience are critical factors in this mix.
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  7. #36
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    I'd say if you're sweating the details of a jump between low-A and high-A, then you probably don't have much of a prospect to begin with. Prospects kick doors down.

    I'm with M2, polish this turd up and use him for trade bait before he's worthless.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 01-05-2006 at 05:22 PM.

  8. #37
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    I'd say if you're sweating the details of a jump between low-A and high-A, then you probably don't have much of a prospect to begin with. Prospects kick doors down.

    I'm with M2, polish this turd up and use him for trade bait before he's worthless.
    And I think the polish will shine brighter blowing away guys in the Midwest league.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #38
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    And I think the polish will shine brighter blowing away guys in the Midwest league.
    I'd like the guy to blow anyone away. I suppose the odds are better that he'd do that at low-A.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 01-05-2006 at 06:26 PM.

  10. #39
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by fourrunhomer
    I say Sarasota to start out. If he is progressing well, Then move him to AA mid season. Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Do not move this kid up too quickly and ruin him just because there is noone else. How often have the Reds done that the past 10 years?!
    Probably never.

    I can't think of one stud pitcher we've moved too quickly.

    I can't think of too many stud pitchers we've had to be honest.

  11. #40
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    Probably never.

    I can't think of one stud pitcher we've moved too quickly.

    I can't think of too many stud pitchers we've had to be honest.
    Ty Howington got two promotions in 2001 at age 21. He was well-regarded at the time and then he blew up. Ricardo Aramboles was pitching in AA at age 20. Dustin Moseley got mid-season promotions in 2002, 2003 and 2004. Josh Hall got 44 IP in high A before he got yanked up to AA. Chris Gruler went from high school to A ball with only a quick stop in Billings. Ryan Wagner was in the majors the year he got drafted. Richie Gardner was in AA his first season in pro ball. Tyler Pelland's been overpromoted twice. If someone can explain to me what business Rafael Gonzalez and Philippe Valiquette had in Dayton last year I'm all ears. Calvin Medlock did well in Dayton in early 2004 and he got promoted. That's just off the top of my head.

    Pretty much every top arm the Reds have had in recent years has been overpromoted. Were any of them studs in the making? Probably not, but overzealous promotions certainly didn't help. For sure it eroded their trade value, preventing the Reds from cashing them in.
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  12. #41
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Ty Howington got two promotions in 2001 at age 21. He was well-regarded at the time and then he blew up. Ricardo Aramboles was pitching in AA at age 20. Dustin Moseley got mid-season promotions in 2002, 2003 and 2004. Josh Hall got 44 IP in high A before he got yanked up to AA. Chris Gruler went from high school to A ball with only a quick stop in Billings. Ryan Wagner was in the majors the year he got drafted. Richie Gardner was in AA his first season in pro ball. Tyler Pelland's been overpromoted twice. If someone can explain to me what business Rafael Gonzalez and Philippe Valiquette had in Dayton last year I'm all ears. Calvin Medlock did well in Dayton in early 2004 and he got promoted. That's just off the top of my head.

    Pretty much every top arm the Reds have had in recent years has been overpromoted. Were any of them studs in the making? Probably not, but overzealous promotions certainly didn't help. For sure it eroded their trade value, preventing the Reds from cashing them in.

    I would agree with most of your post M2, but why add Richie Gardner? He performed very well in high A, then continued to perform well in AA, and basically followed the career path of most polished college pitchers. Yea, he did get injured this year, but I would think it is a tough argument to make that he was injured because he was overpromoted.

  13. #42
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    I would agree with most of your post M2, but why add Richie Gardner? He performed very well in high A, then continued to perform well in AA, and basically followed the career path of most polished college pitchers. Yea, he did get injured this year, but I would think it is a tough argument to make that he was injured because he was overpromoted.
    Maybe he was, maybe he wasn't. When you break it down to individual cases the cause and effect of overpromotion and injury is always a question mark. Yet we know what the organizational practice has been and we know about the injuries.

    Thom Pauly wasn't promoted in 2004 and he blew up too. Clearly not promoting a guy isn't a panacea. Gardner's promotion bothered me less than others though I still thought it was unnecessary. Think about it, you take a kid just as he's approaching the 100 IP wall and you "challenge" him. Gardner was entering virgin territory in terms of his workload, that should have been challenge enough. Did he tweak himself digging for something extra to get out a higher level of hitter when he was feeling the strain of 156 IP season? We'll never know. My take is why risk it in the first place?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  14. #43
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Maybe he was, maybe he wasn't. When you break it down to individual cases the cause and effect of overpromotion and injury is always a question mark. Yet we know what the organizational practice has been and we know about the injuries.

    Thom Pauly wasn't promoted in 2004 and he blew up too. Clearly not promoting a guy isn't a panacea. Gardner's promotion bothered me less than others though I still thought it was unnecessary. Think about it, you take a kid just as he's approaching the 100 IP wall and you "challenge" him. Gardner was entering virgin territory in terms of his workload, that should have been challenge enough. Did he tweak himself digging for something extra to get out a higher level of hitter when he was feeling the strain of 156 IP season? We'll never know. My take is why risk it in the first place?
    Why risk it in the first place? To see what you have. In the case of a polished college pitcher, It is difficult to see what the organization has until they reach AA. Anytime a player moves up a league, there is risk, whether mid-season or the next year.

    I'm not trying to disagree with your thesis here. I have no problem with giving a player a full year and working on things, and in the case of Homer, it is important that he does have a full year in high A to work on his control and third pitch. I am just not sure if the problem with Reds pitching prospects in the past has been that they were being promoted. Other organizations are far more aggressive, but their pitchers don't seem to get injured. The Twins organization does this very well. They have a good track record at keeping pitchers healthy, as of late, but they also are pretty aggressive promoting players, Liriano for one. The key seems to be that they are able to develop and teach their pitchers. Also they are good at identifying talent, and knowing their personel. Something the Reds are not known for.
    Last edited by rdiersin; 01-06-2006 at 01:45 PM.

  15. #44
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    No need to rush....we not going anywhere this year...maybe not even next year. If we are patient we might finally have the ACE we need in about 3 years. You gotta love the fact that he only gave up 5HR's in 100+IP.

  16. #45
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where Should Homer Start in 2006?

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    Why risk it in the first place? To see what you have. In the case of a polished college pitcher, It is difficult to see what the organization has until they reach AA. Anytime a player moves up a league, there is risk, whether mid-season or the next year.

    I'm not trying to disagree with your thesis here. I have no problem with giving a player a full year and working on things, and in the case of Homer, it is important that he does have a full year in high A to work on his control and third pitch. I am just not sure if the problem with Reds pitching prospects in the past has been that they were being promoted. Other organizations are far more aggressive, but their pitchers don't seem to get injured. The Twins organization does this very well. They have a good track record at keeping pitchers healthy, as of late, but they also are pretty aggressive promoting players, Liriano for one. The key seems to be that they are able to develop and teach their pitchers. Also they are good at identifying talent, and knowing their personel. Something the Reds are not known for.
    You know what you have. It's not like Gardner was going to change when you sent him to AA. And you needing him to succeed at AA shouldn't be the controlling issue. It's not like he was ticketed for the majors in 2005, so you can afford a little patience.

    You mentioned knowing your personnel and I think that's a key. Organizations that I see doing things right take some time to get to know their pitchers before they start in with the promotions. They only move the superhumans quickly (e.g. Dontrelle Willis). The Braves tend to let pitchers spend a whole year in low A and a whole year in high A. Then they get agressive. Now, they tend to start with younger pitchers and that certainly has something to do with it, but they also reap the benefits of that patient approach as they've always got some hot kid arms to deal. The Twins have been a little willy-nilly for my tastes. I think they pushed J.D. Durbin too fast and Francisco Liriano probably needs a year or two to catch up to his promise. Meanwhile, they're on the verge of having something special with Adam Harben who's been moving slowly. To their credit, they've kept their arms mostly healthy.

    Now, does overpromotion directly cause arm injuries? It can't help. We know that young pitchers try to reach back for pitches their bodies aren't built to throw when they get in tight spots. I submit one of the reasons the Reds seem to have been hit extra hard with the arm injury bug is because they wildly overpromote. First off, they haven't had any megatalents. No Reds prospect has walked in and just owned opposing hitters for the get-go (perhaps Travis Wood will change that, but we won't know until this summer). Second, more than other organizations the Reds seem to seek out a pitcher's drowning point. Gardner's a mild case, but some of the others I mentioned were just insane. I remember in 2003 when Ty Howington put together a good month in Potomac and then started to show some signs of fatigue (struggling after longer outings), the Reds yanked him up to Chattanooga where he got starched and then his arm blew up. That pretty much finished him. He's thrown all of five live innings since then (in the GCL last season). You look back on it now and it's hard to imagine what they could have been thinking at the time. So I think it's been a case of taking kids who needed protection and pushing them way too far, way too often.

    It's not something you can ever prove since we don't have microbots in a pitcher's arm relaying us information about exactly when the contraption goes kerplooey, but when your results have been as bad as the Reds I think it's fair to assert that a wholesale change in your approach is in order.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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