Dunn And His Long Term Contract

[Astrobuddy]

I correct a poster who posts incorrect info and I am pushing my luck?

Please explain....

[Scrap Irony]

1) Bagwell will not play and take up a roster spot. He is done.

According to whom? Is there a secret Astro fairy that tells you these things? There's been nothing on any AP Wire or on the reputable internet sites that states unequivacably Bags is retiring. Is this wishful thinking?

2) Willy T has hit that good in the minors. In fact he skipped AAA. He will get better ans learn to manage the strike zone better. It was not a career year. It was just his 1st.

Again, are you receiving information from a higher power? Typically, athletes are either hackers or they're not. The only person over the past 20 years to have significantly improved plate discipline while playing the majors has been Sammy Sosa. Can Tavares do it? Sure, he could. Will he? History says unlikely.

3) Jason Lane.. INJURIES?? Based on what??? 2005 was his 1st full season in the bigs but not because of injuries.

In 2003 and 2004, Lane played a total of 196 games. He hit well, but only saw action in just over 2/3 of the total games played. Why? Well, it wasn't because the Astros didn't like him. And it wasn't because there was somebody in front of him either. He was hurt. Both seasons. Last season, Lane played in 145 games, the most he has ever played. Injuries two out of three years means he has shown a propensity for getting injured. He's a fine hitter, sure. But he's been injured. Twice.

4) Biggio didnt have a bad year and 2005 was Burke's 1st full year in the Bigs. Whre did he get his ample opportunity in the majors?

Read my post again. I said Biggio had a fine 2005, but his 2004 season left something to be desired. Is that 2004 a one-year aberration or is it a harbinger of things to come? He's old-- 40+-- and his best days are behind him.

As to Burke, yes, he struggled in his ample time in the majors. 318 at-bats in the major leagues is a bunch. He hit less than 250 in a home ballpark that favors hitters significantly. I still like him as a player (in fact, he's one of my favorite players at the moment, as he's a local kid who's done well), but he's had ample opportunity to shine. That he hasn't should be troublesome to you, an Astro fan.

5) Ensberg... Late bloomer that is the real deal. Had a wrist injury in the playoffs that effected his swing.

Late bloomer based on what? Again using that higher power? Ensberg's minor league numbers are good. His major league numbers, up until last season, were decent. Last season, he eclipsed his HR totals before the All Star break. That is a career year. By definition. Can he do it again? History says it's extremely unlikely. Will he? Sure, again, it's possible. Banking on it is problematic.

6) Berkman.. has never NEVER had an injury past, DO YOU JUST MAKE THIS CRAP UP? He is not just a solid All-Star, he is forging towards a HOF career. Top 5 hitter in the NL.

So the ACL thing was just a figment of my imagination? I didn't know I was that talented, being able to make "crap" up and make it true. Wow, that's a talent I'll have to use this year, too. Berkman as a Hall of Famer? Possible. However, you may want to look at his stats again. According to Baseball Reference, the four players most like Berkman before the age of 30 are Tim Salmon, Magglio Ordonez, Wally Berger, and Danny Tartabull. Good players, all. Hall of Famers, not a one.

7) Wilson.. hitting in an offensive ballpark , but his OBP will go down? I doubt it. He aint Pujols, but he will hit .270, 30, 90-100 with a .350 OBP. Thats just fine and an offensive upgrade no doubt. Here is the guy with an injury concern and you dont even mention it. UNREAL.

Wilson hit in an offensive ballpark for two and a half years. In fact, it's the best offensive ballpark EVER. Maybe you've heard of it. Mile High Stadium. his OBP in that park? Less than 330. The last time Wilson hit 270 was 2003, his career season. (See, it happens. A lot.) The last time he hit 30 home runs? Again, 2003. (There's that career season rearing its ugly head.) The last time he had an OBP over 350? 1999. Unreal is right...

8) Ausmus... great pitcher's catcher. Ausmus was signed for 1 reason, Clemens.

And what does that have to do with anything? I discussed his offensive shortcomings. Sure, he's a fine pitcher's catcher, whatever that means. As for Clemens, is he returning? Again, haven't seen that on any news wires or on the net. Is that yet another missive from the Astro Fan From the Great Beyond?

9) Everett... Not a punch and judy hitter at all. He just doesnt hit. When he does he hits for doubles.

Punch and judy hitter is a term that means a hitter has little power. Everett's career OPS is 670. That's not doubles, Astrobuddy. That's outs.

The Reds have offense but NO pitching or defense.

Well, at least we can agree on something. Of course, I wasn't discussing the Reds, but that's okay.

Oswalt and Pettitte made it thru the 2005 season without injury. Pettitte's elbow is fine and Oswalts hamstring is fixed. No worries.

Sure they did. In 2005. Let's look at the seasons before that. Pettite had elbow surgery in August of 2004. That means he was... INJURED! In 2003, Oswalt started only 21 games. Guess what? He, too, was... (wait for it) INJURED! That's two rather important injuries to two rather important pitchers in three years. Does this represent a worry? Apparently, not to you. As for me? I'd at least be concerned, especially considering the amount of IP on each of those two arms.

The bullpen is one of the best, although Lidge is a question. How will he handle it? We are all 2 months away from finding out.

Okay, pop quiz, hotshot. If Lidge is your closer and he's an admitted question on a team with no other apparent questions, wouldn't that make the entire bullpen a but suspect? And to say that Houston's pen is one of the best in baseball takes in only last season. Winning requires career years. The Astro bullpen had a ton of them. To whit:

Dan Wheeler's year was phenomenal. His career ERA before last season was over 4.50. Can he duplicate that success?

Mike Gallo's ERA dropped 2+ runs in 2005. Is that a sign of his mastery of big league hitters or of a career year?

Even Russ Springer pitched better than his career numbers would indicate, bettering his career ERA by a quater of a run.

And Lidge, perhaps the most dominant closer in baseball in 2005, choked in the post-season. Perhaps he comes back and does well. But, again, history says that's unlikely. Who replaces him if he struggles like he did in the Fall Classic? Chad Qualls? Are you really comfortable enough with your team that you see "no problems" with Chad Qualls as a possible closer candidate?

And, finally...

I wonder if you just sat down and made all that crap up or do you really believe it ? Either way, that was just sad and showed no real effort at trying to keep from looking like a very un-intelligent fan.

Sigh.

Nevermind.

[M2]

IMO, without Clemens the Astros are in a bit of trouble.

They won't fall apart, but if Roger isn't back with the team, I don't see where the pitching staff replaces him. The offense ranked 11th and 12th in the NL in most categories last season, which means the pitching has to be gangbusters for the club to win. I think Taveras can pick up his game a bit and Burke should as well. Berkman for a full year (as opposed to 132 games) will help too, but Biggio's turning 40 and Ensberg likely won't repeat last season. There doesn't look to be any way for this offense to get a lot better unless Preston Wilson goes wild. Think about it like this, the 2005 Astros had an offensive twin in Pittsburgh ... and Pittsburgh's added more offense in the offseason.

If the pitching reverts to its 2004 form, it's hard to imagine the club wins more than 85 games.

[Astrobuddy]

You are just so wrong on so many counts.

Lane wasnt hurt, he sat and thats the truth. NO propensity to getting injured. YOu equate not playing in 162 games to being injured. Tell me what his injuries were please. Call the DL fairy if you must.

Bagwell will either retire or be DL'd. He wont take up a roster spot making $17 million sitting on the bench pinch hitting. No fairy needed it is painfully obvious.

On Burke.. 318 at bats is a bunch? Hell, its only a little over 1/2 a season. He got better as the season went on as well.

Ensberg.. what history says he wont?

Berkman.. 1 injury doesnt mean he has injury issues as you implied. Thats my point. Berkman will be at 1st where he belongs. On his stats, I said he was working on a HOF career, which is still within his reach. His numbers are very, very good.


Wilson was hurt in Colorado.

It is no secret and was reported that Clemens said, "no Ausmus, No Clemens"

Pettitte and Oswalt... Once again, having been injured once doesnt equate to injury issues. Oswalt was 40-22 in 04/05 . WAIT FOR IT>>>>> I think he is healed. Pettitte made 33 starts in 2005 and had no issues with his elbow and was stronger as the year went on.... WAIT FOR IT>>>>>> I think he is healed as well.

On the bullpen.. questions dont mean negatives, they are just that questions. But even if Lidge is not as dominant, he wont suck and will still be better than most. Yes, the Astros bullpen had great years from a couple of guys, but you and this "career year" thing. Just because a guy has a great year doesnt mean that POOF he wont have another and and another.

Yes, I think you are a guy who, like most is probably a nice guy who reads alot of stats, Baseball-reference.com and such and comes up with conclusions based on black and white or gray ink. Baseball isnt on paper. Its on the field.

I am trying to tell you some things from my perspective and correct you on some things that you are just dead wrong on.

Keep this is mind... stats dont tell the whole story.

[Astrobuddy]

M2, the Astros are prepared for life without Clemens. I for one think he is returning in May. The biggest reason.. he hasnt cleaned out his locker at MMP. That may seem small, but Pettitte isnt worried either. Remember, I live here. We hear things that dont get reported on AP or by the hacks on ESPN.

Oswalt
Pettitte
Backe
??
??

The Astros have alot of young pitchers that will compete for the 4th and 5th spots. They will be alright.

I dont disagree with you on the 85 wins. That is till good enough for 2nd and the Astros and Cards will fight it out again for the division.

The offense will be better than 11th or 12th, that I can assure you. PLUS, remember.. The Astros had a deal for Tejada and HE balked, deciding he didnt want to be traded afterall or he would be the Astros SS. The Astros arent afraid of spending money and they are not done improving this team.

[M2]

M2, the Astros are prepared for life without Clemens. I for one think he is returning in May. The biggest reason.. he hasnt cleaned out his locker at MMP. That may seem small, but Pettitte isnt worried either. Remember, I live here. We hear things that dont get reported on AP or by the hacks on ESPN.

Oswalt
Pettitte
Backe
??
??

The Astros have alot of young pitchers that will compete for the 4th and 5th spots. They will be alright.

I dont disagree with you on the 85 wins. That is till good enough for 2nd and the Astros and Cards will fight it out again for the division.

The offense will be better than 11th or 12th, that I can assure you. PLUS, remember.. The Astros had a deal for Tejada and HE balked, deciding he didnt want to be traded afterall or he would be the Astros SS. The Astros arent afraid of spending money and they are not done improving this team.

Young guys competing for 4th and 5th spots don't replace Roger Clemens. For instance, if a kid comes in and pitches as well as Backe did last year in the same amount of innings Clemens logged, the Astros will be looking at 68 extra runs. This also underscores that Backe isn't a very good pitcher. IMO, getting Clemens back in May will be an essential.

Jason Hirsch is where the help will come from when it comes, but he might not be able to provide it until 2007. He probably needs a year in AAA before he's fully cooked. Outside of him, the Astros didn't have much pitching talent in the high minors last season. Maybe Carlos Hernandez or Fernando Nieve have figued something out, but I wouldn't hold out much hope for Zeke Astacio or Taylor Buchholz. That's not a lot in the way of quality. It's certainly no one I'd expect to come in and be a plus pitcher next season (and plus pitchers are what you need to make a serious playoff run).

Assure me all you like, but I don't see what makes Houston a significantly better offensive club next year. Ensberg's not getting any better, in fact he'll probably slide a bit. Lane's what he is (a relatively easy out with a little power). Everett's a #8 hitter. Ausmus is too. Biggio's not likely to do better. Berkman's awesome, but that's nothing new. So that leaves you with looking for most of your improvement from Preston Wilson and the Taveras/Burke combo. I think the kids will do a bit better and Wilson can give the club Lane-ish production. Maybe that pumps the offense up to a 725-run unit from the 693-run unit of last year (assuming Ensberg and Biggio don't slide too much and most everyone, particularly Berkman, stays healthy).

That's still a pretty bad offense. Tejada would have been a great addition. Purpura's going to need to figure something out, because he's drawn a bagel for the most part this offseason.

And 85 wins won't win squat. 85 wins shouldn't even get you third place in the division next year. The Brewers are for real. For sure, 85 wins won't put a team anywhere near the division lead. If the 'Stros are fighting with the Cardinals at the 85-win mark (and I'm guessing the Birds would be horrified to win so few games) all they're fighting for is some bragging rights for when both clubs are watching October baseball from home.

[Scrap Irony]

Statistics tell 99% of the story. Proof is usually required on this board. You've offered little to none. I've tried. I suppose we'll see by the end of the season.

[Jpup]

M2, you said that the Brewers are for real. Why do you think they are that much better than last year? Just wondering since I haven't seen them do a whole lot to improve the club. I fully expect 2006 to be a down year for the NL Central.

[M2]

M2, you said that the Brewers are for real. Why do you think they are that much better than last year? Just wondering since I haven't seen them do a whole lot to improve the club.

They've got some youth that's just going to get better anyway in Weeks and Hardy. I also think Prince Fielder's going to be a legit rookie-of-the-year candidate.

I like the Koskie pickup for that club as well. Bill Hall's a nice supersub type, but he doesn't hit RHPs that well. Koskie does.

Milwaukee made what I thought was an unnoticed great deal with the Jays. It picked up Dave Bush (who's an awfully good #4-5 starter), Zach Jackson (a pitching prospect who's probably on a 2008 timetable) and OB-savvy OF Gabe Gross. Gross hasn't clicked in the majors yet, but he should be a very good 4th OF type in 2006. Corey Hart (he wears his sunglasses at night), from the Brewers system, should also be on hand to lend OF depth.

With Gross, Hart and Hall, the Brewers have a lot of options. If there's one team in the NL that can weather some offensive injuries, it's Milwaukee.

Then there's the pitching. Ben Sheets is as good a pitcher as anyone in the NL and he should be ready for a full season in 2006 (only got 22 starts in 2005). Doug Davis and Chris Capuano are quality lefties behind him. Now add in Bush and then pick a 5th starter between Victor Santos and Tomo Ohka and Milwaukee's got one of the deepest, best rotations in the NL.

Derrick Turnbow's on hand for the closing duties. Matt Wise is a solid set up man. Jose Capellan throws lightning bolts and he'll be part of the setup crew in 2006. Keep an eye out for ex-Braves prospect Brett Evert as well -- just a gut feeling I've got on him.

Milwaukee's got a nice mix of veterans and kids. It's deep. It's got power. It's got speed. It should be able to play some decent defense. And it can pitch. The club's run differential was also three wins better than its record last year. I think that team's an excellent bet to score more and allow less.

Honestly, as of right now, I think the Brewers are the team to beat in the NL Central. I don't expect the Cardinals to roll over, just that the Brewers strike me as a club ready to bust out.

[Jpup]

They've got some youth that's just going to get better anyway in Weeks and Hardy. I also think Prince Fielder's going to be a legit rookie-of-the-year candidate.

I like the Koskie pickup for that club as well. Bill Hall's a nice supersub type, but he doesn't hit RHPs that well. Koskie does.

Milwaukee made what I thought was an unnoticed great deal with the Jays. It picked up Dave Bush (who's an awfully good #4-5 starter), Zach Jackson (a pitching prospect who's probably on a 2008 timetable) and OB-savvy OF Gabe Gross. Gross hasn't clicked in the majors yet, but he should be a very good 4th OF type in 2006. Corey Hart (he wears his sunglasses at night), from the Brewers system, should also be on hand to lend OF depth.

With Gross, Hart and Hall, the Brewers have a lot of options. If there's one team in the NL that can weather some offensive injuries, it's Milwaukee.

Then there's the pitching. Ben Sheets is as good a pitcher as anyone in the NL and he should be ready for a full season in 2006 (only got 22 starts in 2005). Doug Davis and Chris Capuano are quality lefties behind him. Now add in Bush and then pick a 5th starter between Victor Santos and Tomo Ohka and Milwaukee's got one of the deepest, best rotations in the NL.

Derrick Turnbow's on hand for the closing duties. Matt Wise is a solid set up man. Jose Capellan throws lightning bolts and he'll be part of the setup crew in 2006. Keep an eye out for ex-Braves prospect Brett Evert as well -- just a gut feeling I've got on him.

Milwaukee's got a nice mix of veterans and kids. It's deep. It's got power. It's got speed. It should be able to play some decent defense. And it can pitch. The club's run differential was also three wins better than its record last year. I think that team's an excellent bet to score more and allow less.

Honestly, as of right now, I think the Brewers are the team to beat in the NL Central. I don't expect the Cardinals to roll over, just that the Brewers strike me as a club ready to bust out.

wow. I'll be watching those guys closely to see how it turns out. I can't expect anyone to unseat St. Louis as of yet, but it will be interesting to see. After looking at the division, right now I could see them finishing 2nd depending on how the Cubs and Astros rotations pan out. If Clemens comes back to Houston in May (which I don't really think will happen, NY), then the Astros are probably at 2 for me with Milwaukee at 3 and Chicago at 4. I think Pittsburgh and the Reds could fight it out for the cellar in the central in 2006. I really don't expect the Reds to win more than 70 games this season.

[Astrobuddy]

jpup... you think Clemens will go back to the Yankees?

That I can promise you will not happen. I will buy you Reds season tickets if Clemens goes back to NY.

[Jpup]

jpup... you think Clemens will go back to the Yankees?

That I can promise you will not happen. I will buy you Reds season tickets if Clemens goes back to NY.

Do you know Clemens personally, how can you promise something like that? You would have to get me another job closer to Cincinnati as well. It could get expensive.

[Caveat Emperor]

M2, the Astros are prepared for life without Clemens. I for one think he is returning in May. The biggest reason.. he hasnt cleaned out his locker at MMP. That may seem small, but Pettitte isnt worried either. Remember, I live here. We hear things that dont get reported on AP or by the hacks on ESPN.

You don't "prepare for life without" a pitcher that tossed 211 innings at a sub 2.00 ERA. There's simply nobody you can throw into a rotation to match that kind of production.

By definition -- you get worse.

Here's what I else troubles me about Houston this year...

* Andy Pettitte started 33 games (highest since '97), threw 222 innings (highest since '97) and set career marks in ERA (2.39), and OPSA (.613). Basically, he did a full run better than his career average in ERA, and almost a full .100 better than his career average in OPSA. He also avoided a trip to the DL, something he hadn't managed to do in 2 of the previous 3 years. I'm not confident he'll put up the same lofty numbers this season.

* Backe is penciled in as the 3rd starter, but he's going to have to get better from last year if he's going to be an effective rotation member. He averaged just under 6 IP per game, and only around 90 pitches per start. That tells me they were going to get him early in ballgames, which is never a good thing when you're going to be pitching in front of two unknown commodities in the rotation. Good news on him, though, was that it was first full season of starting, so hopefully there's some room for improvement.

* Willy Taveras 103k/25bb -- that's hideous for a leadoff man no matter how many bases you steal or how fast you are. Kid needs to learn to take a walk at the plate. If you can't lay off the crap, pitchers eventually figure you out.

* Morgan Ensberg has a breakout year, but will he fall off to 2004 levels the way he did after a great season in 2003? If he isn't carrying the mail, that puts a ton of pressure on Berkman and Preston Wilson. With no Clemens, there's going to be a greater need to score runs.

[westofyou]

Bagwell will either retire or be DL'd. He wont take up a roster spot making $17 million sitting on the bench pinch hitting. No fairy needed it is painfully obvious.

"I don't know Dr. Andrews, but I'm pretty sure he's going to say, 'You have a bad shoulder, sir.' I already know that. That doesn't mean I can't play. No matter what he says, I'm still going to go to spring training to play baseball."
--Astros first baseman Jeff Bagwell, on the status of his arthritic shoulder

(Houston Chronicle)

"We're trying to get some objective information. A healthy Jeff Bagwell is what we want. If he can't be a full-time player, we have to figure out if we can collect on the insurance or not."

--Astros GM Tim Purpura, on how if Bagwell aborts his comeback and retires before January 31st, insurance will pay over $15.6 million of the $17 million he's due in 2006

"I don't blame them. But the fact is, Jeff has a contract. Whether the Astros are happy about it is not the point."

--Bagwell's agent Barry Axelrod, on Houston's attempt to avoid paying Bagwell

[Strikes Out Looking]

The real problem for the Astros and Brewers is that they don't get to play the Reds 162 times a year! If they can fix that, they'll win 120 games at a minimum, as long as DanO is around.