We turned down Matt Clement for Kearns

[Falls City Beer]

Clement's only been good three years at Wrigley, a pretty pitcher friendly park. He's been mediocre to awful everywhere else he's pitched. He's no longer young, and, frankly, he's gotta touch of the Tomko in him, IMO. The guy always seems to flee somewhat from his potential.

Contreras is older, that's true. And he's an injury risk (the reasons for his bad seasons in 2003-2004.) Now, presumably, he's healthy. And he had a way better season than Clement last season. Plus, he's shown, like El Duque, he knows how to win when the games matter.

[ochre]

did Clement have many good outings after he was hit by that line drive?

[Red Leader]

did Clement have many good outings after he was hit by that line drive?

Yeah, I believe someone posted in here already that he pitched well in August last year (he was hit at the end of July) only to have a miserable September.

[redsfan30]

did Clement have many good outings after he was hit by that line drive?

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/NASApp/...725&statType=2


He made 11 starts after getting hit on July 26th.

[M2]

Wrigley's park rating for pitchers in Clement's three seasons there was 98, 99 and 105, hardly a pitcher's paradise.

I seem to remember Clement winning Game 4 of the NLCs in 1993, pitching Dontrelle Willis into the dirt in the process. Though I guess that doesn't count as stepping up. Meanwhile Contreras got pounded during the 2003 postseason, rope-a-doped the Red Sox in the ALDS last year (in a game where Clement had his wheels pop off) and then cruised up against two of the stupidest offenses you'll ever see in the postseason.

[Puffy]

Clement and Pavano are an interesting comparison. Pavano may be a better pitcher, but he's also had a healthy season only 3 times out of his 7 in the league. Pavano has spent more time on the DL in 4 of his 7 seasons than Clement has in his entire 7 year career. Although both have 3-200+ IP seasons, Clement hasn't been under 169 IP in any of his others, while Pavano has had 3 seasons of 100 IP or fewer. I don't really think it's about the small market temperament, I think it's either about real physical damage or an inability to suck it up and pitch when something's a little ouchy.

Excellent points.

My thought process though is that Milton is included. Clement and Pavano are close to the same animal, although you do correctly point out that thus far Clement has been consistently more healthy.

I am all for Clement for Kearns. I'm really just saying that Kearns and Milton for Pavano equally works for me as we get rid of Milton (who I view as being nothing more that a 5+ pitcher the rest of his contract.

[Johnny Footstool]

Pavano and Clement aren't nearly the same animal.

Pavano is a pitch-to-contact guy with low walk and low strikeout totals. The Reds are already stocked with guys who can't miss bats.

Clement has great stuff with a streak of wildness. The Reds desperately need a guy who can get 7-8 outs per game on his own without putting the ball into play.

[TheGARB]

Excellent points.

My thought process though is that Milton is included. Clement and Pavano are close to the same animal, although you do correctly point out that thus far Clement has been consistently more healthy.

I am all for Clement for Kearns. I'm really just saying that Kearns and Milton for Pavano equally works for me as we get rid of Milton (who I view as being nothing more that a 5+ pitcher the rest of his contract.

I agree that if Milton is included in one of the deals, then that's probably the deal to make. These pitchers are close, but have some slight difference that could make a difference in their success with the Reds.

Both are groundball pitchers with decent K/BB rates, though Pavano is lower on the walk rate while Clement is higher on the strikeout rate.

The big difference between 2004 and 2005 for Pavano, besides the injury, were two things. His BABIP went up from .287 in '04 to .331 in '05, due in large part to playing in front of a weaker defense. The other difference is that his HR/9 rate went from 0.65 in 2004 to 1.53 in 2005, probably a function of leaving Dolphins stadium for half his starts. Those two factors concern me if he were to pitch in front of the Reds' defense in GABP.

Clement is a little more erratic, but he misses more bats. His big change last season was a drop in his K/9 from 9.45 to 6.88. He's struck out over 9 batters per 9 innings in 2 different seasons, but he's more likely to be in the 7-8 K/9 range. That would likely be the highest for any Reds starter.

Of the two, I think Clement is more suited for the Reds current situation. I think he will be less affected by the bad defense because of his ability to go after the strikeout. Though I am concerned about his drop in K-rate, especially after the concussion, as this graph shows:



But then Pavano has his own injury issues too, which is why these guys are being discussed for Kearns and not somebody with a more successful history.

[KronoRed]

If we can get rid of Milton and get back any pitcher with a pulse I'd think we should do it.

[blumj]

Clement has great stuff with a streak of wildness.

It is a rather large streak, though.

[Johnny Footstool]

It is a rather large streak, though.

Granted, but his K/BB is still over 2, despite the drop in K/9 last season. When you strike out as many guys as Clement, that's an acceptable rate.

[captain11]

The Reds have not had problems scoring runs; however, getting people out has been a different story. If the Reds can had proven starting pitching then they have to do it. They will find a way to score (especially at home), but this team continues to be two or three arms a way from competing into July or deeper.

[Falls City Beer]

Look, I'm all for Kearns for Clement, provided the BoSox chip in some (okay, a lot of) cash. But I'd really rather just trade a few ugly salaries and pony up the cash for someone I know won't lay an egg. Psychologically, that's the last thing on earth this team needs is for Clement to come here and stink up the joint--which sits, at about a 50/50 proposition at this point, IMO--great odds if money doesn't matter; terrible odds if it does.

[Doc. Scott]

Those of you who are dragging your feet on Kearns for Clement: how do you feel about Pena for Westbrook?

[klw]

Current rumor at the Sons of Sam Horn is citing a Cleveland radio station saying discussions have Clement going to Cleveland with no Marte but the Tribe keep Clement and send Westbrook to the Reds for Kearns. But they all say this is pure rumor. So I am reporting a report of a rumor. Take it with many grains of salt.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?s...c=3104&st=1340