We turned down Matt Clement for Kearns

[traderumor]

He got hit on July 26th, so his disasterous month of July was pre-beaning. He did have a good post-beaning August, followed by a bad September.

SPLIT  ERA  W L S SvO  G GS    IP   H  R ER HR BB SO BAA 
Home   4.90 8 4 0   0 17 17 101.0 103 59 55  6 34 79 .263 
Away   4.20 5 2 0   0 15 15  90.0  89 43 42 12 34 67 .256 
April  3.90 2 0 0   0  5  5  30.0  38 14 13  1 12 24 .309 
May    2.43 4 0 0   0  6  6  40.2  29 12 11  1 14 30 .199 
June   3.94 3 1 0   0  5  5  32.0  29 14 14  4  6 28 .242 
July   8.88 1 2 0   0  5  5  25.1  32 25 25  7 10 26 .299 
Aug.   3.60 2 0 0   0  5  5  30.0  26 13 12  1 10 21 .239 
Sept   6.00 1 3 0   0  6  6  33.0  38 24 22  4 16 17 .286

Home/away splits are as expected with a high home ERA, but it must have been lobs off the Green Monster as he gave up half as many homers in Fenway.

I wonder if he had an indordinate number of home starts in that pathetic July and perhaps in September? Regardless, his performance has been commensurate with his pay and only if he was mentally affected, ala Herb Score, by the beaning is the primary risk in taking on the contract.

[KronoRed]

How much salary would want them to take on?

I'd say at least 1/3.

[redsfan30]

The more I think about it, the more I think you have to take a shot on him. Yes, it would hurt to give up your best defensive outfielder but pitching is what this team needs.

I'd vote yes.

[Ravenlord]

I wonder if he had an indordinate number of home starts in that pathetic July and perhaps in September?

July; 5 starts, 3 at home (including injury game). 0 quality starts.
August; 5 starts, 2 at home. 3 quality starts.
September; 6 starts, 2 at home. 3 quality starts.

[Red Leader]

The more I think about it, the more I think you have to take a shot on him. Yes, it would hurt to give up your best defensive outfielder but pitching is what this team needs.

I'd vote yes.

Damn is it tempting. Clement does address a problem in the rotation, but 1) you're giving up your best defensive OF 2) a player that has a lot of potential, 3) is under your control for a couple more years at a lower salary, and 4) you're giving up payroll flexibility to sign other people on your team to keep them around longer.

In the end, I just don't think it's worth it for 2 years of Clement. I want a pitcher in return that we have control over for the same amount of time we control Kearns.

[steig]

I would have done the deal for a Zito or even washburn, but not clement. he can never be more than a #3 starter. I'd rather role the dice on kearns becoming a top line player if clement is all we can get.

[lollipopcurve]

Clement is 31. As a power pitcher who relies on a very nasty slider, his best days are likely behind him. Clemens abandoned his slider. Rijo's slider took its toll and he was finished at a relatively young age. In general, you don't see many power righthanders with hard sliders keep that repertoire into their 30s (Big Unit, a lefthander, is a freak).

Kearns is 25 and at low value right now.

The Reds need to be patient and let Kearns and Wily Mo up their value.

Somebody stop Kullman from trying to prove himself here. It's just not the right time.

[redsfan30]

In the end, I just don't think it's worth it for 2 years of Clement. I want a pitcher in return that we have control over for the same amount of time we control Kearns.

At the end of the 2 years, who knows....maybe we could resign him at a cheaper rate. And by that time, if all goes well Bailey and Wood could be getting closer to Great American Ball Park. A high-ceiling prospect is never a sure thing. Austin Kearns was (and to a certain extent, still is) one himself. I just think if you're going to trade him away you have to get back someone proven.

I think it's worth the shot and at the end of his contract try to resign him (if it's worth it at the time).

[RedsManRick]

I can understand the aversion to Jake Westbrook, but why the extreme aversion to Clement. I think Clement is actually a pretty solid fit here. He misses a lot of bats (great hit/9 and k/9 rates) and keeps the ball in the park. He's averaged 192 IP per year since he came up 7 years ago. No significant pitching injuries. Obviously, his biggest problem is some wildness, but unless were looking at aces, nobody is gonna be perfect.

Given the state of our defense, I'd rather have a guy that could miss bats but walked a few more than he should than a Paul Byrd/Brad Radke type who doesn't walk anybody but needs a great defense.

Personally, I don't think trading Kearns right now makes a whole lot of sense. Given his supposed potential, I'd rather give him 3 months of healthy, uninterrupted starts to see what he does. If he's hitting .300 with 15 bombs in July, we could be players for a legitimate top prospect. Of course, it would take some real guts to trade a young, cheap guy who's producing.

IF we do trade Kearns, I think we'd be hard pressed to get better value than Clement. Of course, that's all predicated on the idea that he's healthy. Given some previous comments, it sounds like he might be damaged goods at this point.

[Ravenlord]

Clement is 31. As a power pitcher who relies on a very nasty slider, his best days are likely behind him. Clemens abandoned his slider. Rijo's slider took its toll and he was finished at a relatively young age. In general, you don't see many power righthanders with hard sliders keep that repertoire into their 30s (Big Unit, a lefthander, is a freak).

that's a very interesting point. doesn't Smoltz, Pedro, Millwood, Colon, Schmidt, Lieber kinda disprove it (all age 31 or older)?



and for those unfamilliar with Clement's career:

Age	ERA	IP	K/BB	BB/9	K/9	H/9	HR/9	WHIP	Team
23	4.61	13.2	1.86	4.61	8.56	9.88	0.00	1.65	SD
24	4.48	180.2	1.57	4.28	6.73	9.46	0.90	1.53	SD
25	5.14	205	1.36	5.49	7.46	8.52	0.97	1.56	SD
26	5.05	169.1	1.58	4.52	7.12	9.14	0.80	1.52	FLA
27	3.60	205	2.53	3.73	9.44	7.11	0.79	1.20	CHN
28	4.11	201.2	2.16	3.53	7.63	7.54	0.98	1.23	CHN
29	3.68	181	2.47	3.83	9.45	7.71	1.14	1.28	CHN
30	4.57	191	2.15	3.20	6.88	9.05	0.85	1.36	BOS
Total	4.37	1347.1	1.92	4.09	7.84	8.34	0.91	1.38	-

[lollipopcurve]

doesn't Smoltz, Pedro, Millwood, Colon, Schmidt, Lieber kinda disprove it (all age 31 or older)?

Good point, but:

Smoltz -- had to go to the pen (elbow issues)
Millwood -- injuries have been a problem (shoulder at least)
Schmidt -- injuries have been a problem (elbow & shoulder, I think)
Lieber -- injuries have been a problem (TJ surgery)
Pedro -- does he still throw a slider? I know he throws curves and changes -- if he does throw a slider, it's rare, I think.
Colon - an exception I suppose

Clement is high risk, both for age and arsenal issues, in my opinion.

[Redus]

I think you miss read it:

According to the Boston Herald, the Reds are interested in getting back into the Coco Crisp deal, making a nine-player swap a possibility.
We're still not sure of the details here, but as reported earlier, Matt Clement would likely go to Cincinnati and Austin Kearns would be sent to Cleveland. We assume Andy Marte would still go Cleveland. Also, the agreed-upon Jason Michaels-for-Arthur Rhodes swap would probably be killed off.

Rotoworld.com

Well last night they said we killed the deal last week but now today it says were interested again. Im figuring Dan O didnt like it but maybe Kullman does. I dont know how I feel. I still like Kearns buttttttttt if Clement bounces back hes a pretty damn good pitcher.

[Red Leader]

Here is contract information on Clement. He could be very expensive.

Matt Clement: signed 3-year deal worth 25.5M thru 2007 on 12/22/04- he will make 6.5M in 2005 and 9.5M in both 2006 and 2007- + he can earn a 3M raise(escalator) in both in 2006 and 2007 based on both starts and innings pitching in the prior season- +the escalators are: 25K for 31 starts, 50K for 32, 75K for 33, and 100K for 34, or a total of an additional 250K and then 50K for 200 innings, 100K for 210, 150K for 220, and 200K for 230, or an additional 500K in total+ he can earn 3M in performance bonuses in 2007, that are valued the same as the escalators, but are compensated during the season- + he can earn award bonuses: 250K for All-Star selection and 2M for the Cy Young Award and lesser amounts for 2nd-5th Cy Young finishes- + bonuses he has earned: 250K for 2005 All-Star selection Agent: Barry Axelrod

[KronoRed]

Get them to take Milton somehow, otherwise I see trouble with paying for Harang/Claussen/Dunn

[lollipopcurve]

In the hullaballo to get more pitching, I think what's getting lost is that the Reds need to figure out who their offensive core is going to be going forward. First order of business should be Castellini & Co. sitting down with Lopez's and Dunn's agents and talking LTCs. If they can't make it work -- and a contract like Clement's would certainly hamper those efforts -- then those are the guys to shop for pitching.