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Thread: Pecota?

  1. #31
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    Since Harang has improved his numbers every year, I wonder why the drop in his numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    PECOTA are kind of a fun little frippery, but honestly, one really has to wonder what the boys over there were thinking to project WMP with a .351 OBP for last year.
    If I understand PECOTA correctly (and it's very possible that I don't), there are zero human adjustments made to the projections. It's all done by computer.

    Say the player is a 25 year old Adam Dunn. The computer finds players that were most similar to Adam Dunn up to this point in his career (for example, 25 year old players, similar height/weight, similar OPS, etc). The program then analyzes what happened to that class of players the following year. For example, 60% may have declined, 25% may have collapsed, 20% may have improved.


    It's simply a tool. Not perfect (for example, you have to look at the list of similar players and see if there are any mitigating factors... like perhaps one of the "similars" broke his leg the next year), but pretty damn impressive, if you ask me.

    While Pecota did miss on Pena in 2005, it also projected his breakout season in 2004. It projected Johnny Gomes' last year.

    Pena's four most similar players going into last year were Albert Belle 1990, Jesse Barfield 1983, Bob Watson 1969, and Dale Murphy 1979. 14 of his 20 most similar players trended upward. That's why the program projected improvement in '05. It just didn't happen.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

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  3. #32
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    275/.344/.485

    829 OPS at third.

    That would have been good enough for 6th overall in the majors last year (5th in the NL).
    At first glance, I almost thought that they'd reversed the numbers for Lopez and Encarnacion by mistake.

    I'd be thrilled if Edwin put those kind of numbers up, but I'm not too confident. Hopefully this year will be a productive year as he learns what it takes to be an everyday player in the major leagues.
    Championships Matter.
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  4. #33
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    Re: Pecota?

    IMO, the value of PECOTA is that it gives you a good team baseline. Of course it will miss on individual projections. Ryan Freel will almost certainly do better than his and Eric Milton almost certainly will do worse.

    Yet when your entire pitching staff has to trounce its PECOTAs in order for the team to compete then you've got trouble. In essence it's telling you how many cards you need to pull to a straight.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  5. #34
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    IMO, the value of PECOTA is that it gives you a good team baseline. Of course it will miss on individual projections. Ryan Freel will almost certainly do better than his and Eric Milton almost certainly will do worse.

    Yet when your entire pitching staff has to trounce its PECOTAs in order for the team to compete then you've got trouble. In essence it's telling you how many cards you need to pull to a straight.
    I agree with you.

    To play devil's advocate, a critic would say that based on PECOTA, the White Sox were supposed to allow more runs than they scored in 2005. So sometimes, even on a macro-level (a whole team), it will miss.

    As I said, I think it's a pretty damn good tool. Not perfect, but PDG.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  6. #35
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili
    I agree with you.

    To play devil's advocate, a critic would say that based on PECOTA, the White Sox were supposed to allow more runs than they scored in 2005. So sometimes, even on a macro-level (a whole team), it will miss.

    As I said, I think it's a pretty damn good tool. Not perfect, but PDG.
    It's a tool whose biases give you biased projections. It could be made better--so why isn't it?

    A good system works well in the parts as well as the whole--otherwise you got people treating an abscessed tooth with a hatchet.

    It's a cute toy, but hardly a solid predictive tool. I'd trust a number of members on this board to make solider predictions using a more compelling set of criteria/assumptions to guide said predictions.

  7. #36
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    It's a cute toy, but hardly a solid predictive tool. I'd trust a number of members on this board to make solider predictions using a more compelling set of criteria/assumptions to guide said predictions.

    Now, this is coming from someone who ten years ago would have laughed out loud at the concept of Pecota.

    But it's a tool that should to be in the toolbox of anyone making predictions. How you weigh it is up to your own predilections.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
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    Re: Pecota?

    re: WMP --the hardball annual reports that WMP was hit unlucky --they have what is a form of DIPS for hitters--i think they call it Props...anyways, that may account for Pecota's .351 obp. If his hits fall at a normal rate then maybe he ends up with a .351 obp. God i love baseball.

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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62
    Now, this is coming from someone who ten years ago would have laughed out loud at the concept of Pecota.

    But it's a tool that should to be in the toolbox of anyone making predictions. How you weigh it is up to your own predilections.
    A tool is only a tool if you understand the deepness of its limitations. Otherwise it's a block of wood.

  10. #39
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    A tool is only a tool if you understand the deepness of its limitations. Otherwise it's a block of wood.


    irony

    1. Incongruity between what might be expected and what actually occurs

    2. RFS62 arguing with Falls City the relative merits of sabermetrics and Baseball Prospectus forcasting tools.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62

    irony

    1. Incongruity between what might be expected and what actually occurs

    2. RFS62 arguing with Falls City the relative merits of sabermetrics and Baseball Prospectus forcasting tools.
    Look, I love statistics. But the real world's all about how one applies those statistics. Conclusions and applications are what separate the men from the boys.

    PECOTA's interesting. And probably applicable. But I'd like someone on my payroll who could foresee WMP's limitations (oh, like, say, woy, pedro and me?)

  12. #41
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    Look, I love statistics. But the real world's all about how one applies those statistics. Conclusions and applications are what separate the men from the boys.

    PECOTA's interesting. And probably applicable. But I'd like someone on my payroll who could foresee WMP's limitations (oh, like, say, woy, pedro and me?)


    It's just a tool. Kinda like Raisor.

    Use it at your discretion.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

  13. #42
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    Look, I love statistics. But the real world's all about how one applies those statistics. Conclusions and applications are what separate the men from the boys.

    PECOTA's interesting. And probably applicable. But I'd like someone on my payroll who could foresee WMP's limitations (oh, like, say, woy, pedro and me?)
    IIRC, you've been pretty much dead wrong about Pena to date. He's already miles better than you ever thought he'd be. You thought he'd shrivel and die in AA.

    He's only 24. He has earth-shaking power and he's only going to get mightier. Pitchers are going to stay away from the strikezone with him out of fear at some point. Will it be this year? Hard to know when that rocket launches, but when it does a .350 OB strikes me as easily achievable for the kid.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  14. #43
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    IIRC, you've been pretty much dead wrong about Pena to date. He's already miles better than you ever thought he'd be. You thought he'd shrivel and die in AA.

    He's only 24. He has earth-shaking power and he's only going to get mightier. Pitchers are going to stay away from the strikezone with him out of fear at some point. Will it be this year? Hard to know when that rocket launches, but when it does a .350 OB strikes me as easily achievable for the kid.

    From minute one, I've said he'd not get his OBP over .325 at the MLB unless his game totally changes. I've been dead right the whole time. I honestly have no idea where you got the "dead at AA" prediction. Honestly, if being a league average leftfielder means a player's "miles ahead" of my predictions, then so be it--I'm nuts.

    People were calling for longterm contracts for the guy at the All-Star break last season. Good thing no one listened.

    He may have a Guillen-esque season somewhere down the line, but it's not happened yet, and probably won't happen this year unless his game changes. At 24 (not really young anymore for an offensive player), I'm not banking on it.

    But again, my point isn't solely about Pena--it's about making predictions based upon performance and less on "comparable" players.

  15. #44
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    Re: Pecota?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    It's a tool whose biases give you biased projections. It could be made better--so why isn't it?
    I would argue that it is "made better" in the annuals, where the writers say "he'll outhit that Pecota projection because of x, y and z."
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  16. #45
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    Re: Pecota?

    Just as a point of comparison, this year's PECOTA sees Kearns OPSing at an .880 clip. I sure as hell don't see that happening. And I know for a fact that you don't either.

    We see limitations in these players that these projections aren't addressing. Legitimate concerns the metrics overlook.


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