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Thread: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

  1. #46
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Dreaded double-post.
    Last edited by M2; 02-09-2006 at 12:46 PM.
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  3. #47
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    SteelSD and Caveat Emprorer, you guys didnt seem to get the simple fact that I was answering the question of why I think the Reds have a better system than the Cardinals.
    And, as usual, your reasoning is all over the place.

    The Reds have a better system than the Cardinals because of the presence of three A-Ballers? Their #2 prospect (Bruce) has fewer than 200 professional AB. Their #3 prospect (Wood) has less than 50 professional IP in his short, fragile career.

    Those two guys combined don't come close to equalling the value of a high-level MLB-ready pitching prospect like Anthony Reyes. Ditto if you swap one of those guys out and insert one Mr. David Bailey. You don't seem to understand simple player valuation outside of a vacuum- i.e. that performers higher up on the food chain are worth geometrically more than performers further down.

    And after the third prospect on your list, the system falls off a cliff excepting Adam Rosales who we both feel BA dramatically undervalued. But, like the top three, he's going to have to move up the minor league ladder (and quickly considering his age) before we can look to the Reds farm system and proclaim that it's better than really anyone else's.

    I wasnt trying to convince anyone that Those three guys are the saving grace of this franchise. Just a simple arguement on my behalf to the idiotic comment of "every team has the same players because every teamhas a draft each year". Every team does have a draft each year, but every team didnt have guys that performed at the levels that Bruce and Wood, especially guys who we drafted in the first two rounds and played against "bad competition". If that were the case, which other second round picks had a 1.20 ERA? How many first round picks hit 9 home runs last season? Not every team had one, much less two guys like that.
    If you haven't figured this out, one seasons best 19-year old Rookie or low A-Ball pitcher usually isn't next season's best low or high A-Ball pitcher. The #1 guy (Bailey) has morphed his description from "polished" to "project" in the span of 1.5 minor league seasons. The #2 guy has 200-odd PA. The #3 guy is overmatching hitters with guile rather than pure stuff way down on the farm.

    None projects to really help anytime soon- if ever.

    That's a crappy CRAPPY list of prospects right now. However, if those same prospects start moving UP the ladder while being high-level performers, you know what happens? Yep. The system starts moving up the ranking list because those players will be more valuable.

    It appears that your real problem is that you think low sample-size performers at the bottom of the minor leagues will undoubtedly continue to be performers as they move up the ladder. Of course, that's not how it works for if it was, the Reds would have multiple guys in the mid to high minors who would be replicating their lower-level performances from previous seasons.

    But instead we see injury and failure and the Reds end up backfilling the low minors by attending amateur drafts each season and for some reason you seem to think that should allow them to move up in the minor league system rankings- and ahead of teams who actually HAVE impact guys who've moved up.

    Right now, they don't have that. Right now they have nothing but low-level maybes and a top 10 list that's heavy on low-quality low-level maybes. That doesn't put them in front of anyone- including the St. Louis Cardinals.
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  4. #48
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    SteelSD, here is what you dont understand.

    You said that every team has what the Reds have a #2,3 and Miguel Perez becuase they have a draft every year.

    I disagreed, becuase if they did, then where are they? I cant say I know for a fact that no other team had two guys perform at the levels that Wood and Bruce did....but I know for sure that every team didnt.

    You always make these long drawn out posts that cover 15 different points in the arguement or response to just one simple point someone else makes.

  5. #49
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Colby Rasmus only hit 7 HR. Though he had a higher BA, OB and SLG than Bruce without ever dipping a toe into the GCL/AZL level. Nick Webber annhilated short-season ball with a 1.87 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
    Rasmus and Bruce both played Rookie league ball. I missed Nick Webber, but Nick Webber also came straight from College.

    Ryan Braun hit 10 HR in his debut and Will Inman pitched every bit as well as Wood did in Pioneer League.
    Ryan Braun is 4 years older than Jay Bruce is. Will Inman performed well. I wasnt argueing that the Reds system was better than the Brewers, who have one of the best in all of baseball.

    So, there you go, first two teams I looked at had guys who debuted every bit as well as Bruce and Wood PLUS they've got lots of other stuff.

    That doesn't even get into the insanity of building your case for organizational strength around kids in rookie ball.
    You also put out college kids compared to high school kids and went out and picked one of the best systems in all of baseball(Brewers) and tried to disprove my point that the Reds have a better system than some.

  6. #50
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Every team does have a draft each year, but every team didnt have guys that performed at the levels that Bruce and Wood, especially guys who we drafted in the first two rounds and played against "bad competition". If that were the case, which other second round picks had a 1.20 ERA? How many first round picks hit 9 home runs last season? Not every team had one, much less two guys like that.
    Milwaukee had Prince Fielder (7th pick, 2002 draft) who hit 28 home runs in AAA Nashville last year. He performed well against better competition at a higher level of the minor leagues. He has been able to replicate his numbers at every stop in the minors, and now he is ready to contribute to his major league club THIS YEAR. That makes him exponentially more valuable than Jay Bruce, who had a good year, but has not shown the ability to produce consistently year after year (due to his age) and is not close to helping the major league club (due to his inexperience).

    Players like Prince Fielder -- advanced in their system -- are the reason why other teams have Farm Systems that are ahead of the Reds. If the Reds had a player like Fielder, they'd be in prime position to be trading for pitching right now, because players closer to the show are WORTH more in real-world value (all ranking numbers aside) than players buried down in the system. The Reds have nothing in the high minors, which is why they're going to head into the season with Dave Williams, Matt Belisle and Luke Hudson battling for a 5th starter spot instead of acquiring someone of value to place in that spot. Instead, the Reds have botched drafts in the past and failed to acquire plus prospects in the trades they've made, preferring to acquire middling-talent pitchers like Elizardo Ramirez and Josh Hancock instead of trying to stock their system with MORE younger talent and playing the numbers game.

    And, in addition to advanced players like Fielder, the Berwers also have players who perform at a high level in the low minors as well. They drafted Brendan Katin in the 23rd round out of the University of Miami last year, and he OPSd over 1.000 in the Pioneer League, hitting 8 home runs along the way to a promotion into single-A midseason. By your standards (and by BA's standards), he'd immediately be a top-5 prospect on the Cincinnati Reds. And yeah, he came from college -- but why hold smart drafting against him?
    Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 02-09-2006 at 01:17 PM.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
    Milwaukee had Prince Fielder (7th pick, 2002 draft) who hit 28 home runs in AAA Nashville last year. He performed well against better competition at a higher level of the minor leagues. He has been able to replicate his numbers at every stop in the minors, and now he is ready to contribute to his major league club THIS YEAR. That makes him exponentially more valuable than Jay Bruce, who had a good year, but has not shown the ability to produce consistently year after year (due to his age) and is not close to helping the major league club (due to his inexperience).

    Players like Prince Fielder -- advanced in their system -- are the reason why other teams have Farm Systems that are ahead of the Reds. If the Reds had a player like Fielder, they'd be in prime position to be trading for pitching right now, because players closer to the show are WORTH more in real-world value (all ranking numbers aside) than players buried down in the system. The Reds have nothing in the high minors, which is why they're going to head into the season with Dave Williams, Matt Belisle and Luke Hudson battling for a 5th starter spot instead of acquiring someone of value to place in that spot.

    And, in addition to advanced players like Fielder, the Berwers also have players who perform at a high level in the low minors as well. They drafted Brendan Katin in the 23rd round out of the University of Miami last year, and he OPSd over 1.000 in the Pioneer League, hitting 8 home runs along the way to a promotion into single-A midseason. By your standards (and by BA's standards), he'd immediately be a top-5 prospect on the Cincinnati Reds. And yeah, he came from college -- but why hold smart drafting against him?

    Where did anyone say the Reds had a better system than the Brewers? The Brewers have the best system in all of baseball except for probably the Dodgers.

    No one with any knowledge of baseball would say the Reds have a better system than the Brewers. The same cant be said of the Nationals, Cardinals, Astros, Mets....

    And Im not holding anything against him, but a guy who performed well in the low minors as a 21 or 22 year old college product isnt the same as a high school kid who is 18 producing at the same levels.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 02-09-2006 at 01:22 PM.

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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    The #3 guy is overmatching hitters with guile rather than pure stuff way down on the farm.
    Very poor characterization of Travis Wood, in my opinion. Mid-90s fastball, a cutter, and a changeup that has been ranked 70 on the 20-80 scale. That's pure stuff, not guile.

    The #1 guy (Bailey) has morphed his description from "polished" to "project" in the span of 1.5 minor league seasons.
    Hardly. Bailey just needs innings and some work on his off-speed stuff. The fastball and curve are there. The mechanics are there. In my view, "projects" are guys with big arms but no real secondary pitch, zero command and/or poor mechanics. The Colt Griffins and Jason Neighborgalls of the world. Bailey doesn't need anything resembling an overhaul or an epiphany. He was ranked the #2 prospect and best pitcher in the Midwest League by BA, and that bestows a fairly significant value on him in the industry, I think.

    I'm not going to debate the Reds system vs any other system. But I am far more optimistic about what will emerge from the last two drafts than many here.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    lollipopcurve, I am right there with you with the assessment you just made.

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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Rasmus and Bruce both played Rookie league ball. I missed Nick Webber, but Nick Webber also came straight from College.
    So what if Webber came from college. That just means he's likely to advance faster.


    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Ryan Braun is 4 years older than Jay Bruce is. Will Inman performed well. I wasnt argueing that the Reds system was better than the Brewers, who have one of the best in all of baseball.

    You also put out college kids compared to high school kids and went out and picked one of the best systems in all of baseball(Brewers) and tried to disprove my point that the Reds have a better system than some.
    A) Braun also detonated Low A and will either start in AA or be there by the All-Star break. So what if he's four years older, he's damn good.

    B) Your point, such as it was, was this "If that were the case, which other second round picks had a 1.20 ERA? How many first round picks hit 9 home runs last season? Not every team had one, much less two guys like that."

    I went out and grabbed the Cardinals and Brewers out of a hat (two teams the Reds need to catch up to someday if they ever want to win anything) and lo and behold it turns out that find Bruce and Wood are hardly uncommon animals. I'll leaving the yes-buts to you since it's all you've got, but the point is that THE ABSOLUTE BEST THING THE REDS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR IT AT THIS MOMENT IS SOMETHING THAT YOU CAN FIND ALL OVER THE GAME OF BASEBALL.

    Sidenote on Miguel Perez: He may not need to hit to be a good catcher, but he damn sure needs to hit to be a good player. Right now he'd be lucky to have the career of Terry McGriff.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    Hardly. Bailey just needs innings and some work on his off-speed stuff. The fastball and curve are there. The mechanics are there. In my view, "projects" are guys with big arms but no real secondary pitch, zero command and/or poor mechanics. The Colt Griffins and Jason Neighborgalls of the world. Bailey doesn't need anything resembling an overhaul or an epiphany. He was ranked the #2 prospect and best pitcher in the Midwest League by BA, and that bestows a fairly significant value on him in the industry, I think.
    Bailey's mechanics aren't there. If they were he'd find the strikezone with better frequency and not be feast or famine out on the mound. His mechanics are the opposite of there. He's got some stuff, but he's extremely spotty.

    I don't disagree that Bailey has value at the moment (one of the reasons why the Reds ought to be willing to trade him in the right deal) or that he could get a lot better, but he needs more than innings and better off-speed stuff. His ace and deuce need work too.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Bailey's mechanics aren't there. If they were he'd find the strikezone with better frequency and not be feast or famine out on the mound. His mechanics are the opposite of there. He's got some stuff, but he's extremely spotty.

    I don't disagree that Bailey has value at the moment (one of the reasons why the Reds ought to be willing to trade him in the right deal) or that he could get a lot better, but he needs more than innings and better off-speed stuff. His ace and deuce need work too.
    We'll just have to disagree. This guy's got one of the smoothest deliveries I've ever seen. His fastball has the requisite velocity and movement. His curveball has the requisite pace and break. Those pitches do not need "development," at least not in my lexicon. What he needs, at least according to what I've read, are innings so that he can develop consistency with his off-speed stuff (remember that he was mandated to throw his change a certain # or % of the time last year, possibly resulting in some of his BB issues) and to work on stuff like holding runners and fielding his position. They want him to get stronger, too, which should come naturally with time.

    You can point to his ERA and say he's a mediocre prospect. That's one way of looking at him. But in my view, there is enough other evidence, statistical and anecdotal, that says Bailey is a premium prospect, perhaps one of the 10 best pitching prospects in the minors. That said, he should not be rushed, and I think we agree there.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    So what if Webber came from college. That just means he's likely to advance faster.
    Yeah, he might advance faster, but that doesnt mean he is better.



    A) Braun also detonated Low A and will either start in AA or be there by the All-Star break. So what if he's four years older, he's damn good.
    He was supposed to detonate low A ball at his age. I think Ryan Braun is real good. But he did exactly what he was supposed to do being a first round pick in low A ball.

    B) Your point, such as it was, was this "If that were the case, which other second round picks had a 1.20 ERA? How many first round picks hit 9 home runs last season? Not every team had one, much less two guys like that."

    I went out and grabbed the Cardinals and Brewers out of a hat (two teams the Reds need to catch up to someday if they ever want to win anything) and lo and behold it turns out that find Bruce and Wood are hardly uncommon animals. I'll leaving the yes-buts to you since it's all you've got, but the point is that THE ABSOLUTE BEST THING THE REDS SYSTEM HAS GOING FOR IT AT THIS MOMENT IS SOMETHING THAT YOU CAN FIND ALL OVER THE GAME OF BASEBALL.
    All over baseball? What teams have an 18 year old lefty who hits 94mph and has a plus change up? Of those teams that do, who has an 18 year old outfielder with good plate discipline, good power, plus fielding and a plus arm?
    You simply cant compare college kids in low minors to high school kids in low minors. Its an unfair comparison as far as determining the kids actual talent. Who will be MLB ready sooner, odds are its the college drafted kid, but who is going to be the better talent in the end doesnt come down to a 21 year old doing well in the low minors.

  14. #58
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    The Reds farm system is not very good, no way around that. Is there some talent? Yes, but it is a long way from the majors.

    I was unhappy with the drafting of Bailey and Bruce(preferred Diamond and Carillo). Wanted Suzuki instead of BJ.

    The other problem is that the Reds don't have enough marketable affordable talent at the major league level to replenish their upper minors. They really have no choice except hope some guys really start to develop and don't get injured.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    We'll just have to disagree. This guy's got one of the smoothest deliveries I've ever seen. His fastball has the requisite velocity and movement. His curveball has the requisite pace and break. Those pitches do not need "development," at least not in my lexicon. What he needs, at least according to what I've read, are innings so that he can develop consistency with his off-speed stuff (remember that he was mandated to throw his change a certain # or % of the time last year, possibly resulting in some of his BB issues) and to work on stuff like holding runners and fielding his position. They want him to get stronger, too, which should come naturally with time.

    You can point to his ERA and say he's a mediocre prospect. That's one way of looking at him. But in my view, there is enough other evidence, statistical and anecdotal, that says Bailey is a premium prospect, perhaps one of the 10 best pitching prospects in the minors. That said, he should not be rushed, and I think we agree there.

    Smooth doesn't mean to much to me when it can't find it's mark.

    FWIW, I'm not saying Homer's a mediocre prospect. However, what I am saying and what I've always said (and what Steel pointed out earlier) is that he's a project. The kid's not a ready-made. That's not his fault, almost no one his age is. As for one of the 10 best pitching prospects in the minors, BA (which loves Bailey) didn't rank him that high last year and it sure as shooting won't do it this year. Statistically he'd do well to make a top 100 for RHPs.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    FWIW, I'm not saying Homer's a mediocre prospect. However, what I am saying and what I've always said (and what Steel pointed out earlier) is that he's a project. The kid's not a ready-made. That's not his fault, almost no one his age is. As for one of the 10 best pitching prospects in the minors, BA (which loves Bailey) didn't rank him that high last year and it sure as shooting won't do it this year. Statistically he'd do well to make a top 100 for RHPs.
    What I'm saying, and what I've said since the day he was drafted, is that the kid appears to have ace-level talent, and for that reason I've always been glad he's in the system. 2005 did absolutely nothing to dissuade me from that opinion. Just as I feel you and Steel and others undervalue the guy, I'm sure many feel I overvalue him. No biggie.
    On stats -- Homer's got some nice peripherals (k/9. HRs against, BA against) for a 19-year-old in the Midwest League. You gotta look at those to evaluate his performance, too.
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