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Thread: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

  1. #61
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Yeah, he might advance faster, but that doesnt mean he is better.
    Nor does it mean Wood's better. All it means is that Wood's not as unique as you positioned him.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    He was supposed to detonate low A ball at his age. I think Ryan Braun is real good. But he did exactly what he was supposed to do being a first round pick in low A ball.
    Jay Bruce didn't detonate A ball as a first round pick. He hasn't risen that high. Homer Bailey didn't detonate A ball last year and he was a first-round pick from the year before.

    Though once again the point you claimed that Bruce was unique. I love him, cyberdrafted him, I was the first person to mention his name on this board, but much as I like him as a prospect I'm not so obtuse as to think he's unique.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    All over baseball? What teams have an 18 year old lefty who hits 94mph and has a plus change up? Of those teams that do, who has an 18 year old outfielder with good plate discipline, good power, plus fielding and a plus arm?
    You simply cant compare college kids in low minors to high school kids in low minors. Its an unfair comparison as far as determining the kids actual talent. Who will be MLB ready sooner, odds are its the college drafted kid, but who is going to be the better talent in the end doesnt come down to a 21 year old doing well in the low minors.
    A) Yes, all over baseball. You're just too lazy to look. Either that or you don't want to burst this bubble you've created for yourself that the Reds have done something unique and wonderful.

    B) The world is full of kids who hit 94 with another pitch. I went to high school with one. Unfortunately most never pitch in the majors.

    C) Outfielders who can hit and field a bit aren't anything that just got invented by Jay Bruce.

    D) You're right, you simply can't compare more advanced players to less advanced players. More advanced are worth a lot more.

    E) Who is going to be a better talent in the long run is something that most no one does a good job of determining. The usual argument for prep arms, for instance, is based on ignorance. BA provides a classic example every year. Their failure rate on highly projected teenage hurlers makes for good comedy, but that's about it. Ryan Anderson is all too typical of the pitfalls inherent in "projectibility." Fans always think their system's prospects are more projectible. You don't know who's going to be a better talent in the end. You're just insisting the scenario that works best for the team you root for happens to be the operating intelligence at work here. It's not. You're grasping.
    Last edited by M2; 02-10-2006 at 12:35 AM.
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  3. #62
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    On stats -- Homer's got some nice peripherals (k/9. HRs against, BA against) for a 19-year-old in the Midwest League. You gotta look at those to evaluate his performance, too.
    And I do. He'd still be lucky to make a top 100 RHPs even with those numbers if you were doing a purely statistical evaluation.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    More advanced are worth a lot more.
    To what degree?

    For example, who would you rather have, Chris Lambert or Homer Bailey? Abe Alvarez or Travis Wood? Danny Putnam or Jay Bruce? The former guys, simply because they're older?
    I'll take the latter in every case.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    He'd still be lucky to make a top 100 RHPs even with those numbers if you were doing a purely statistical evaluation.
    Depends on how the values for k/9, HR rate, BA against and age (a stat) are weighted.
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  6. #65
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Statistically he'd do well to make a top 100 for RHP


    91. Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds, Age 21
    Acquired: 1st round, 2004, La Grange HS (La Grange, TX)

    Another in a long lineage of raw, fire-balling Texas right-handers, Bailey sports a mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve that wows scouts. The problem right now (as it is with most young hard throwers) is that his off-speed stuff leaves much to be desired. He's going to need that third pitch if he's to succeed as a starter at the highest level. The Reds are handling him carefully in terms of workload, which is a point in his favor, but he struggled badly with his control last season in the Midwest League. If Bailey stays healthy, harnesses his stuff and cultivates a deeper repertoire, he'll be a special pitcher. But those are a lot of "ifs."

    Wow somebody who ranked Homer in the top 100 of all prospects this year didn't take that long to find either. Courtesy of Fox sports

  7. #66
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    To what degree?

    For example, who would you rather have, Chris Lambert or Homer Bailey? Abe Alvarez or Travis Wood? Danny Putnam or Jay Bruce? The former guys, simply because they're older?
    I'll take the latter in every case.
    I'd rather have Thomas Diamond that Homer Bailey, that's for sure.

    Convenient pick on Abe Alvarez. I choose Jon Papelbon.

    Who's worth more, Jeremy Hermida or Jay Bruce? Bruce is cut from the Hermida mold. He could be every bit as good or better. Yet who's worth more and why? Not really a hard answer when you get right down to it.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #67
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5
    Statistically he'd do well to make a top 100 for RHP


    91. Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds, Age 21
    Acquired: 1st round, 2004, La Grange HS (La Grange, TX)

    Another in a long lineage of raw, fire-balling Texas right-handers, Bailey sports a mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve that wows scouts. The problem right now (as it is with most young hard throwers) is that his off-speed stuff leaves much to be desired. He's going to need that third pitch if he's to succeed as a starter at the highest level. The Reds are handling him carefully in terms of workload, which is a point in his favor, but he struggled badly with his control last season in the Midwest League. If Bailey stays healthy, harnesses his stuff and cultivates a deeper repertoire, he'll be a special pitcher. But those are a lot of "ifs."

    Wow somebody who ranked Homer in the top 100 of all prospects this year didn't take that long to find either. Courtesy of Fox sports

    Wow, totally based on projectibles and not stats. In fact, Fox doesn't mention a single sat in its summation.
    Last edited by M2; 02-09-2006 at 04:42 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #68
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    Depends on how the values for k/9, HR rate, BA against and age (a stat) are weighted.
    Weighted? More like slanted. Those are peripherals. You have to ignore WHIP and ERA to make a case that Bailey was a statistically good pitcher last year. Bailey was a kid who struggled, but left open the possibility that he'll deliver better in the future. Though a fair assessment of his work isn't what you're after here.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  10. #69
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Nor does it mean Wood's better. All it means is that Wood's not as unique as you positioned him.
    Never said it did.

    Jay Bruce didn't detonate A ball as a first round pick. He has risen that high. Homer Bailey didn't detonate A ball last year and he was a first-round pick from the year before.
    I agree. The difference being that Ryan Braun, the example you provided came from college to play well in A ball, where as Bruce came from high school to play in A ball. Braun is older, more physically mature, and has faced better competition to that point. He should be more polished than Bruce. But what will Bruce do in A ball in 3 years when he is 21? Odds are we wont know becuase he will be playing in Chattanooga or Louisville.

    Though once again the point you claimed that Bruce was unique. I love him, cyberdrafted him, I was the first person to mention his name on this board, but much as I like him as a prospect I'm not so obtuse as to think he's unique.
    No, I am claiming the combo of both Bruce and Wood being in the Reds low minors as being unique that most teams dont have two 18 year olds putting up the numbers that those two have is something that most other teams didnt have. Which was in response to SteelSD claiming that Bruce, Bailey and Wood werent anything special because every team has a draft every year and every team gets a guy just like them.


    A) Yes, all over baseball. You're just too lazy to look. Either that or you don't want to burst this bubble you've created for yourself that the Reds have done something unique and wonderful.
    There are a bunch of 18 year olds who averaged a home run more often than Bruce did? A bunch with 18 year olds who had slugging percentages near his? There are a bunch of 18 year old pitchers with the statlines that Travis Wood had? No there arent. Not on one team. Yeah Colby Rasmus hit well, and Chris volstad pitched pretty well...there are some guys who performed pretty well, but not two such guys from one such organization. Not on every team thats for sure.

    B) The world is full of kids who hit 94 with another pitch. I went to high school with one. Unfortunately most never pitch in the majors.
    The world is definately not full of 18 year old lefties who his 94mph, who have a polished secondary pitch.


    D) You're right, you simply can't compare more advanced players to less advanced players. More advanced are worth a lot more.
    Then why would you try to do it to disprove me, if you also think you cant compare the two?

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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Though a fair assessment of his work isn't what you're after here.
    Sure it is.

    You're not.
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  12. #71
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Wow, totally based on projectibles and not stats. In fact, Fox doesn't mention a single sat in its summation.

    Baseball America and Fox project prospects on a number of variables including stats. By the way Baseball America ranked Bailey 48th in 2005.

  13. #72
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    The difference being that Ryan Braun, the example you provided came from college to play well in A ball, where as Bruce came from high school to play in A ball. Braun is older, more physically mature, and has faced better competition to that point. He should be more polished than Bruce. But what will Bruce do in A ball in 3 years when he is 21? Odds are we wont know becuase he will be playing in Chattanooga or Louisville.
    Maybe, maybe not. Braun will be in AA at age 22 (bank on it). I'll be happy if Wood can make it to 22 without major surgery.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    No, I am claiming the combo of both Bruce and Wood being in the Reds low minors as being unique that most teams dont have two 18 year olds putting up the numbers that those two have is something that most other teams didnt have. Which was in response to SteelSD claiming that Bruce, Bailey and Wood werent anything special because every team has a draft every year and every team gets a guy just like them.
    To be honest, a lot of teams do better than Bruce, Bailey and Wood over two drafts. Anyway, you seem to think there's something magical about age 18. There isn't.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    There are a bunch of 18 year olds who averaged a home run more often than Bruce did? A bunch with 18 year olds who had slugging percentages near his? There are a bunch of 18 year old pitchers with the statlines that Travis Wood had? No there arent. Not on one team. Yeah Colby Rasmus hit well, and Chris volstad pitched pretty well...there are some guys who performed pretty well, but not two such guys from one such organization. Not on every team thats for sure.
    Again, if you want to fall in love with his age that's your mistake. A .484 SLG isn't exactly earth-shattering. Colby Rasmus, from what you claim is an inferior Cardinals system, had a .514 SLG playing tougher overall competition and without the benefit of a Pioneer League power boost.

    Kyle Blanks, in what you claim was the supposedly inferior Padres system was a prep player who posted a .291/.420/.500 line in the AZL. Joseph Dickerson, Royals AZL, 18, .294/.371/..491. The Royals also an 18-year-old named Jeff Bianchi go .408/.484/.745, but you'll claim he doesn't count because he's just a SS. Junior Contreras, Mets GCL 1B, 18, went .291/.401/.500. Josh Flores, 19, Astros, finished in A ball, .331/.380/.511.

    That's five organizations you claimed the Reds could dust with teenage bats that slugged better than Jay Bruce.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Then why would you try to do it to disprove me, if you also think you cant compare the two?
    You just don't catch on. If more advanced players are worth more then the Reds' less advanced players are worth less, meaning the system should rank lower.
    Last edited by M2; 02-09-2006 at 06:19 PM.
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Convenient pick on Abe Alvarez. I choose Jon Papelbon.

    Who's worth more, Jeremy Hermida or Jay Bruce? Bruce is cut from the Hermida mold. He could be every bit as good or better. Yet who's worth more and why? Not really a hard answer when you get right down to it.
    I chose Alvarez because he's a lefty, like Wood. If older prospects are "a lot" more valuable than younger ones, I figure it's fair to ask if you'd prefer a once-hot but still not-old AAA guy vs. an 18-year-old who hasn't risen above short-season ball. Seems like you'd take Wood, too.

    What I'm getting at here is that statements like "more advanced are worth more" strikes me as lacking enough subtlety to truly evaluate and compare prospects. If you really believe that "more advanced is worth A LOT MORE than less advanced," then I think you will take Lambert over Bailey and Alvarez over Wood. But what I think you truly believe is that "elite and more advanced" is worth a lot more than "elite and less advanced." (I agree, too.) That's what allows you to compare Bruce and Hermida, and Papelbon and Wood, but reject as somehow unfair the comparison of Wood and Alvarez.

    Just admitting that you have a problem calling Bailey and Wood elite is the first step to recovery.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Kyle Blanks, in what you claim was the supposedly inferior Padres system was a prep player
    Kyle Blanks was a JUCO draftee. He played on the same team as Milton Loo.
    Not that it messes with your argument much...
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  16. #75
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    Re: Baseball America ranks Reds farm system 29th out of 30 teams

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    Sure it is.

    You're not.
    So explain how a pitcher with a 4.43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.73 H/9, 5.38 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, 10.85 K/9 counts as anything other than "a kid who struggled, but left open the possibility that he'll deliver better in the future."

    You're the one who tossed out the puffery that his stats could somehow land him in a pitching prospects top 10 list. It's totally indefensible.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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