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Thread: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

  1. #271
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    His power will buy him an elevated BB rate in the future.
    so would refusing to swing at pitches bouncing in the dirt.

    There is an unbelievable power upside to WMP if he can
    1) gain control of the strike zone
    2) transition from a ground ball to a fly ball hitter
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  3. #272
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Curves down and away the easy way to get Wily Mo out.

    Also worked on Aaron Boone but he turned it on every few weeks.
    Go Gators!

  4. #273
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    so would refusing to swing at pitches bouncing in the dirt.

    There is an unbelievable power upside to WMP if he can
    1) gain control of the strike zone
    2) transition from a ground ball to a fly ball hitter
    That will come with maturity. I think what a lot of folks forget with him is that he just turned 24. He'll get better at the things he doesn't do that well at the moment (particularly the GB/FB thing). That doesn't mean he'll perfect those things -- Pena's always going to whiff a lot -- but it's a safe bet to assume his positive outcomes will increase as he moves into his late 20s.
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  5. #274
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Oh, I disagree strongly with that. Let him start jacking the ball with greater frequency (which will come with maturity and a steady gig) and pitchers will stay out of the strikezone as best they can when he steps to the plate. His power will buy him an elevated BB rate in the future.
    Actually, I have the opposite opinion, as I posted in another thread... I think his power is already feared and the book on him across MLB is already "stay out of the strikezone as best you can." And the book is a bestseller. The walks are already there and he's not taking them. In that respect, Pena's no different than any other free-swinging power-hitting youngster. He's going to (1) learn to lay off the junk, (2) prove he can hit the junk or (3) never come close to his potential. In the great continuum of adjust and counter-adjust, it's Pena's move.

    Now, a caveat: I don't get to watch the Reds play as often as most here, so my impression that the primary issue behind his awful K/BB ratio is poor plate discipline could be wrong. If the real problem is that he can't hit stuff that's thrown IN the strike zone, and pitchers freely challenge him and get away with it, that's a horse of a different color.
    Not all who wander are lost

  6. #275
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed
    Actually, I have the opposite opinion, as I posted in another thread... I think his power is already feared and the book on him across MLB is already "stay out of the strikezone as best you can." And the book is a bestseller. The walks are already there and he's not taking them. In that respect, Pena's no different than any other free-swinging power-hitting youngster. He's going to (1) learn to lay off the junk, (2) prove he can hit the junk or (3) never come close to his potential. In the great continuum of adjust and counter-adjust, it's Pena's move.

    Now, a caveat: I don't get to watch the Reds play as often as most here, so my impression that the primary issue behind his awful K/BB ratio is poor plate discipline could be wrong. If the real problem is that he can't hit stuff that's thrown IN the strike zone, and pitchers freely challenge him and get away with it, that's a horse of a different color.
    Nah, it takes years to establish widespread fear. Wily Mo's barely begun to make that kind of impression. Right now he's a kid with power that teams figure they can handle. The leap comes when teams decide you've got power they can't handle.

    I agree he's already passing up BBs. He'll pass up fewer as he gains experience. Also, no one's got complete coverage of the strikezone (well, maybe Vlad Guerrero or Ichiro Suzuki). Pena's still figuring out which strikes he likes best. The process can take years.

    I figure the way he matures is the power pops and the BA begins to creep into the .260s and .270s. Then once he hits his prime (and he doesn't enter it until 2009) and starts to do some sick damage you'll see pitchers start to run at just about the time Pena's developed the know-how to lay off the more obvious junk. Then he'll have some studly years, then when his power wanes he'll be back to many of his old bad habits.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  7. #276
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Nah, it takes years to establish widespread fear. Wily Mo's barely begun to make that kind of impression. Right now he's a kid with power that teams figure they can handle. The leap comes when teams decide you've got power they can't handle.

    I agree he's already passing up BBs. He'll pass up fewer as he gains experience. Also, no one's got complete coverage of the strikezone (well, maybe Vlad Guerrero or Ichiro Suzuki). Pena's still figuring out which strikes he likes best. The process can take years.

    I figure the way he matures is the power pops and the BA begins to creep into the .260s and .270s. Then once he hits his prime (and he doesn't enter it until 2009) and starts to do some sick damage you'll see pitchers start to run at just about the time Pena's developed the know-how to lay off the more obvious junk. Then he'll have some studly years, then when his power wanes he'll be back to many of his old bad habits.
    See: Sosa, Sammy. As soon as Sosa lost his bat speed and couldn't turn on everything in the zone, he became a poor hitter again. He never really had great contact ability or a great eye, he just became so feared that pitchers avoided him like the plague. He learned to not swing at bad pitches and suddenly started walking a lot. He still swung and missed quite a bit at pitches in the zone when he guessed wrong. However, he could sit on certain pitches that he knew he could handle well and became an awesome mistake hitter.

    To me the parallels between Sammy and Pena are numerous. Both have(had) above average speed but are/were poor fielders and baserunners. Both have prodigious power, but seemingly poor pitch recognition and contact ability on anything but what they're looking for (ie. easily fooled). There's potential for him to follow Sosa's career path -- generally speaking -- but there are a lot of things that could go wrong along the way.

  8. #277
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Consider it anything you want. The guys who do it with the greatest frequency tend to be lousy offensive players.
    ...and are frequently the ones that simply come to bat at the right time.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  9. #278
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Oh, I disagree strongly with that. Let him start jacking the ball with greater frequency (which will come with maturity and a steady gig) and pitchers will stay out of the strikezone as best they can when he steps to the plate. His power will buy him an elevated BB rate in the future.
    I'd like to think so, but WMP hasn't shown an inclination to lay off balls outside of the strike zone now, why would he develop that characteristic if he started hitting more HRs? Plate discipline is a huge issue for WMP. I do think that is something that can be improved with coaching and practice, but I don't think it will come automatically simply because pitchers become more fearful of his power. With his current plate discipline, he'd have to start getting Barry Bonds-esque pitches before he could significantly up his walk rate.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  10. #279
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    I'd like to think so, but WMP hasn't shown an inclination to lay off balls outside of the strike zone now, why would he develop that characteristic if he started hitting more HRs? Plate discipline is a huge issue for WMP. I do think that is something that can be improved with coaching and practice, but I don't think it will come automatically simply because pitchers become more fearful of his power. With his current plate discipline, he'd have to start getting Barry Bonds-esque pitches before he could significantly up his walk rate.
    Experience happens. I don't expect him to change rapidly, but I also don't think nature slapped him on the back at age 23 and froze him in his current state.

    Plate discipline will always be a huge issue for Pena, just like it was for guys like Sosa and Ron Gant. That said, as he does more damage inside the strikezone in the coming years (stress on the word "years") pitchers will be ever more wary about throwing strikes and as Wily Mo starts creeping up on 30 he'll likely become more selective.

    For 2006 his main goal should be to play a full season (because none of the above matters if he can't stay healthy), jam 35+ HR and drag that OB north of .320. It's not the OB I'd want either, but he's a guy who can be real dangerous despite a below average OB.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  11. #280
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    If WMP gets a .320 OBP, he'll be dangerous with the power he has.

    Sometimes I forget how young he is, seems like he's been around forever...
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  12. #281
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I figure the way he matures is the power pops and the BA begins to creep into the .260s and .270s. Then once he hits his prime (and he doesn't enter it until 2009) and starts to do some sick damage you'll see pitchers start to run at just about the time Pena's developed the know-how to lay off the more obvious junk.
    I like your scenario better than mine, so I'll hope your picture is the more accurate one.

    Which raises the question of whether he'll still be in Cincinnati for us to see it, but that's another thread.
    Not all who wander are lost

  13. #282
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    Sorry, but I don't buy that for guys like WMP. Dunn yes. his OBP renders the type of out he make meaningless. but when you have a guy like WMP that can't find 1B with a map, then you look at why. He K's a ton. And since He isn't going to get his walks into 100+ territory... ever, then he better hit more. That means reducing his K's, because they are the majority of his outs. Just over 1/3 of his AB's were K's, just under 1/3 for Dunn. But Dunn's OBP makes up for that. WMP's doesn't and likely never will.

    So, WMP needs to up the BA to be more effective, because he ISN't going to up his walk rate.

    Dunn's K's are not a problem. WMP's are.
    Sammy Sosa:

    1997- 642 AB: 161 H, 36 HR, 45 BB, 174 K- .251 BA/.300 OBP/.480 SLG
    1998- 643 AB: 198 H, 66 HR, 73 BB, 171 K- .308 BA/.377 OBP/.647 SLG

    In 1998, Sosa put up 28 more PA than in 1997. Not coincidentally, his BB total increased by...28.

    But those Strikeouts. Pretty much identical while Sosa's gross Hits total increased by 37- producing a BA increase of 57 points.

    So how'd that happen? Take a close look. About 7 of those additional 37 Hits can be attributed to an increased BABIP. The remainder (30) are due to the 30 additional baseballs that left the yard- all of them without a meaningful reduction in gross K's or K/AB rate. In short, Sosa's 77-point OBP increase was facilitated by his increase in power rather than a decrease in K rate.

    Now let's equalize Pena's 2005 using Sosa's 1997 AB totals and rate stats:

    642 AB: 163 H, 39 HR, 42 BB, 240 K

    240 Strikeouts. Now, with those K totals, could Pena possibly put up a 1998 Sosa type season? Let's break it down per Sosa's 643 AB "breakout" season using Pena's numbers while adjusting for Sosa's average across-the-board increase:

    641 AB: 201 H, 72 HR, 68 BB, 7 HBP, 2 SF, 236 K

    Because Pena would be acquiring fewer BB, we'd probably see a reduction of PA from the 722 Sosa put up in 1998. We'd be at about 718 PA for Pena so to equalize, let's add 4 AB to even things out. To be fair, I'm going to count all of those 4 AB as Outs. Here are the rate stats if that happened.

    645 AB (722 PA): 201 H, 72 HR, 35 2B, 68 BB, 7 HBP, 2 SF, 236 K=

    .312 BA/.383 OBP/.701 SLG- 1.084 OPS

    Well, let's see now. To do that, Pena would have the following breakdown of events:

    276 Non-Out Events
    446 Out Events
    210 Non-K Out Events

    Now, is Pena going to get 722 PA in this lineup? Nope. He's most likely going to get 650 max. So let's look at Pena's "Sosa" season in that context:

    581 AB (650 PA): 181 H, 65 HR, 32 2B, 62 BB, 6 HBP, 2 SF, 213 K

    249 Non-Out Events (38.3% of PA)
    401 Out Events (61.7% of PA)
    188 Non-K Out Events (28.6% of PA)

    For comparison, here's Dunn's 2004 when he set the MLB Strikeout record:

    264 Non-Out Events (38.8% of PA)
    417 Out Events (61.2% of PA)
    222 Non-K Out Events (32.6% of PA)

    Now, is it probable that Pena will have a Sosa 1998 "breakout" season anytime soon? Well, to count on that would be counting on the improbable. But we're really talking about a difference of 4% more K's per PA than Dunn (because the rates stay constant) if we're going to talk about it.

    As for Kearns? Really doesn't factor in considering that he's a .090-.100 Isolated Discipline guy. In short, he's the kind of guy you keep telling us not to worry about. I agree, but that has nothing to do with his K numbers.

    But really, I'd hoped this Strikeout stuff would stop after the Reds led the world in Strikeouts while leading the NL in Runs Scored in 2005. Even a Joe Randa was only truly productive when posting either solid IsoD or IsoP numbers in spurts.

    Can the Reds thrive while trading Randa for Eddie E. and Casey for more PA from both Pena and Kearns? Absolutely. In fact, they can score more Runs while doing that. The irony is that the "more Runs" projection could be set on fire by Narron if he decides that leading off a turd like Womack (who, BTW- isn't a low-K rate guy for a punch-and-judy hitter).

    Will the Reds add OBP to the team versus 2005? Excluding Womack, I'd say that Kearns represents an OBP neutral gain versus Casey. Pena represents a probable OBP loss versus Randa but at the same time also represents a big SLG gain as he develops. Encarnacion also adds solid Isolated Power while producing MLB-average Isolated Discipline at age 23.

    When the worst hitter on your team is Eddie E., you've got a real opportunity to produce 900 Runs offensively if the optimal lineup is in place most often because with a goodly number of productive "balanced" hitters (Dunn, Griffey, Kearns), additional SLG can outweigh a small OBP loss.

    And that's a real life reality with the Reds. Pena represents a 250-point Isolated Power (IsoP) performance. Eddie E. represents a a 200-point IsoP. Kearns also represents a 200-point IsoP along with a 100-point IsoD.

    And I truly hope that the 2006 Reds put up 900 Runs while posting the 7th best team BA, the 2nd best team OBP, and the best SLG in the NL. And I hope they strike out even more while doing so. Because if they do, maybe this discussion will finally end as it should have after they struck out 140 more times than did the next highest K team in the NL while leading the NL in Runs Scored.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams


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