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Thread: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

  1. #46
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    I'll take a high K lineup everyday of the week if they score the most runs in the league.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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  3. #47
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Becasue it's one way to raise obp? And the chances of scoring a run are better when the ball is in play.
    If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there is a man on base
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  4. #48
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    Not sure if I commented another time this was posted, but "K's are not bad at the team level" is based on a strawman premise in the first place, that "A high strikeout team should score fewer runs than a low strikeout team if K's are so bad." Oversimplification of the issue.
    There is no issue, so it's pretty darn tough to oversimply anything.

    Don't make the mistake of thinking this is a debate, tr. This is me explaining to you what baseball tells us. It's that clear if you can get beyond the flawed nature of intuition and focus on what IS.

    Pythag tells us that when Runs are scored doesn't really matter.

    That link I just gave you tells us that there's no correlation between K's and Runs Scored at a team level.

    Because both of the above statements are true, you have no "issue" to discuss.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  5. #49
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R
    I don't know. Did he ground out or pop up 13% or more?
    BABIP

    Dunn 2001: .298
    Dunn 2002: .316
    Dunn 2003: .241
    Dunn 2004: .321
    Dunn 2005: .281

    Dunn Career: .294

    Dunn's lousy 2003 season was because his BABIP was lousy. His outstanding 2004 season was because his BABIP was excellent.

    Dunn's LD% was 19.3 percent in 2004 and dropped to 17.5 percent in 2005. That likely accounts for some of the 40 point drop in BABIP, but probably not all of it. I have some theories on how a hitter can maybe control his BABIP that I hope to test later on this week with some research, but I'm not prepared to make those claims yet without the data.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  6. #50
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    Reasonable statement. However, a high K lineup may be symptomatic of an overall flawed collection of players.
    point it like you pointed at earlier it has to be looked at on an individual level. Do those high K guys have a low OBPs or a low SLG%? From an offensive standpoint the best offensive skill to have is to not make outs. So an overall flawed collection of offensive players is not defined by a group with high Ks but a group with a low OBP.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  7. #51
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    How did that flawed group of players score more runs than anyone in the National League?
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  8. #52
    Dunnilicious creek14's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup
    -TOO MANY STRIKOUTS IN THE LINEUP

    -Might have to take away from the strength (offense) to improve the pitching.
    I hope those two don't equal a Dunn trade...
    Will trade this space for a #1 starter.

  9. #53
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by creek14
    I hope those two don't equal a Dunn trade...
    He wasn't asked, but I highly doubt it. He didn't act like a trade was at the top of his list of things to do. Just the feel I got.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  10. #54
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by bigredmachine1976
    I'm sure my baseball knowledge as well as Mr. Krivsky's is inferior to many of you who post here on a daily basis, but it almost sounds like the more you strike out the more runs you'll score.

    The main reason I've seen for this is that high isolated power usually correlates with more strikeouts. Its this element that drives the more strike outs more you'll score, as you stated it. Its not the strikeouts themselves, its that they seem to be a byproduct of more power. Regardless, even though there is a positive correlation between strikeouts and runs scored, its small enough that no conclusion could ever be drawn from it, other than they are not a major significance to a teams runs scored.

  11. #55
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    I don't want to argue, but I'm still confussed. There has to be a point where more strike outs leads to less runs. I'm pretty sure that could be mathmatically proven.
    If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there is a man on base
    --Dave Barry

  12. #56
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by creek14
    I hope those two don't equal a Dunn trade...
    we know why you think that. If a Dunn trade would bring a windfall of talent I would be for it. However, I don't see that happening.

    If I was the GM they easiest way to help the 2006 pitching would be to improve the defense. Having said that the defensive black holes for this team in 2005 were SS and CF. Hmmm. What to do with Lopez and Jr?
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  13. #57
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    This is a complex subject. For example, the Reds tend to play high scoring games in which their pitchers give up tons of runs. Would the Reds' run scoring prowess continue if they played tighter games with better pitching?

    After-the-fact, strikeouts are irrelevant. An out is an out.

    Before-the-fact, however, a high strikeout hitter is less likely to produce because he doesn't make contact. Swings and misses too much. Except in the rare case, like a Dunn, where a high K guy also walks a lot.

    I would rather have more guys that make contact.

    Except that on the Reds high strikeout totals are less of a problem. This is because they play in a home run stadium. So you want guys with power, even if they tend to strike out more.

    Or something.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-13-2006 at 11:33 AM.

  14. #58
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    There is no issue, so it's pretty darn tough to oversimply anything.

    Don't make the mistake of thinking this is a debate, tr. This is me explaining to you what baseball tells us. It's that clear if you can get beyond the flawed nature of intuition and focus on what IS.

    Pythag tells us that when Runs are scored doesn't really matter.

    That link I just gave you tells us that there's no correlation between K's and Runs Scored at a team level.

    Because both of the above statements are true, you have no "issue" to discuss.
    Four years of data in one league in a high strikeout, high ERA era. Case closed? I'm not sure that would meet the standard of credible scientific research (certainly wouldn't reach the level of SABR research) to prove the author's hypothesis "that low K teams should score more than high K teams."
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  15. #59
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by bigredmachine1976
    I don't want to argue, but I'm still confussed. There has to be a point where more strike outs leads to less runs. I'm pretty sure that could be mathmatically proven.
    It would be the point when OBP and SLG% start to decrease. That should tell you all you need to know.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  16. #60
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Krivsky will be on XM at 8:30

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels
    How did that flawed group of players score more runs than anyone in the National League?
    They also played defense.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em


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