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Thread: Digging Deep into Plate Discipline and Unlocking a Secret to Hitting

  1. #61
    Member PickOff's Avatar
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    Re: Digging Deep into Plate Discipline and Unlocking a Secret to Hitting

    Quote Originally Posted by Team Clark View Post
    The only factoring that I would like to see is what kind of an impact the umpire has on these scenarios and what pitching staffs are the best at keeping the HCPA lowest over a 3-4 year period. Then I'd like to see what the numbers are with all of those factors in place. Kind of like a 7 degrees but it would be fun. Great work as usual.
    It would also be interesting to see the HCPA with men on base, and in scoring position.
    Thank goodness for baseball.

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  3. #62
    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: Digging Deep into Plate Discipline and Unlocking a Secret to Hitting

    Quote Originally Posted by PickOff View Post
    It would also be interesting to see the HCPA with men on base, and in scoring position.
    Very true. I would be interested in that as well. I really want to see the umpire data. I think there are a handful that have a "noticeable" impact.
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
    Cedric 3/24/08

  4. #63
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Digging Deep into Plate Discipline and Unlocking a Secret to Hitting

    Quote Originally Posted by PickOff View Post
    It would also be interesting to see the HCPA with men on base, and in scoring position.
    This is an excellent inquiry, but unfortunately a difficult one to answer since it's a type of batting split within another batting split. Usually most of the batting count data that's easily available is split directly from the overall numbers instead of another previous split, such as runners on base or runners in scoring position. The only place I know to collect the necessary data are the Retrosheet Event Files, and that's where a Retrosheet Event File Guru would come in handy. As much as I'd like to be one of those, I have to say that I'm far from one.

    However, I did take a dive into the new 2006 Retrosheet Event Files, and I was able to find at least a partial semi-correct answer ...

    In 2006, the Reds as a team had 2,933 event-logged plate appearances with men on base, which is slightly higher than the 2,730 actual plate appearances with runners on base. Some plate appearances appear to be double-counted because of what happens to baserunners. For example, if a baserunner moves from first to second on a passed ball, that plate appearance appears to be counted twice. That's really the only explanation I can find or think of that explains the discrepancy between 2,933 event-logged plate appearances with runners on base and 2,730 actual plate appearances with runners on base.

    With that caveat in mind and knowing that the numbers may be slightly off, here's the batting count data based off those 2,933 event logged plate appearances ...
    • 1,102 of Reds plate appearances with runners on base (37.57 percent) were in a hitter's count. This is slightly better than the 37.04 percent for overall plate appearances.
    • 814 of Reds plate appearances with runners on base (27.75 percent) were in a pitcher's count. This is slightly better than the 28.99 percent for overall plate appearances.
    • 1,017 of Reds plate appearances with runners on base (34.67 percent) were in an even count. This differs slightly from 33.97 percent of plate appearances with runners on base being in an even count.

    I also extracted Adam Dunn's 2006 numbers for runners on base, and here's what I found ...
    • Dunn had 327 event-logged plate appearances with runners on base. This differs slightly from the 299 actual plate appearances with runners on base that he recorded in 2006.
    • 152 of Dunn's plate appearances with runners on base (46.48 percent) were in a hitter's count. This is slightly better than his career overall mark of 44.80 percent.
    • 76 of Dunn's plate appearances with runners on base (23.24 percent) were in a pitcher's count. This is slightly better than his career overall mark of 23.86 percent.
    • 99 of Dunn's plate appearances with runners on base (30.28 percent) were in an even count. This differs slightly from his career overall mark of 31.35 percent.

    On the surface, it appears that when runners are on base, most hitters see a small spike in the amount of HCPA and a small reduction in the amount of PCPA. That's not at all surprising considering most hitters have a higher OPS with men on base than with nobody on base. In fact, it may help explain some of the reasons why most hitters have a higher OPS with men on base than with nobody on base.

    I'll play around with the event files a bit more and see what else I can find - there's always something to find in them - though they are very much a pain to deal with in compiling and extracting data. TC, the umpires data is available somewhere in the event files, I'm sure, but I haven't quite figured out how to access exactly what you'd be looking for.

    I've attached the source text files and Excel files in case anybody gets ridiculously bored and wants to play around with them.
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 01-03-2007 at 06:44 PM.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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