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Thread: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

  1. #16
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I'm looking at Williams to have a 5.00+ ERA. Same with Milton, though obviously anything under 6.00 would mark improvement for him.
    I have to agree, neither of these guys will provide us anything other then 1 out of 12 decent starts and the rest of the time they will be getting beat all over the place and putting an already bad bullpen to work more.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    Harang 3.93
    Claussen 4.17
    Williams 4.74
    Milton 4.92

  4. #18
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    The Reds averaged 4.63 Runs in support of Harang, who had the fourth lowest Quality Start ratio of NL pitchers who produced a 3.83 or lower ERA.


    If Harang wants to record more Wins, he needs to pitch better more often.
    4.63 runs per game is still 0.43 less than the team averaged per game. He didnt get the support that his fellow starters got(just a guess, didnt actually look for the numbers). I agree he will need to pitch better to get more wins, but he did seem to be the unlucky pitcher of the staff who got less from the team than most others did.

  5. #19
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    I'll believe the Reds will be without a starter with an ERA over 5.00 when it happens and not a momment before. Too many ducks in the pond to not get shot IMO.
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  6. #20
    Member Gainesville Red's Avatar
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    Ruhle's still the pitching coach right? It seems like (and my lack of intrest in finding stats is about to show) after he and Narron arrived the pitching got a little better for the most part last year.

  7. #21
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    gainesville, I brought that up in a different post and some on here claimed that the veterans(Milton and Ortiz) just decided to pitch better then and it was not really anything Ruhle had to do with. I disagree with that idea.

  8. #22
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    Quote Originally Posted by Gainesville Red
    Ruhle's still the pitching coach right? It seems like (and my lack of intrest in finding stats is about to show) after he and Narron arrived the pitching got a little better for the most part last year.
    Most teams that start off horrible in pitching wind up throwing better in the second half, main reason being that many of the main offenders are either gone or have gotten their acts somewhat cleaned up in order to stick around. The Reds have pitched better in the second half than the first in each of the past four seasons. It also happened in 1999 and 2000. In 2001 and 2002 the team finished on a (relatively) high note in September. It's created a situation where many proclaim the pitching staff fixed or headed in the right direction prior to every season when nothing could be farther from the truth.
    Last edited by M2; 02-15-2006 at 01:39 PM.
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  9. #23
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    if the starters are better than the relievers, then it'll be because the relievers are worse than godawful. Which, I agree, is possible
    That's my fear too.
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  10. #24
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsMan3203
    I hope baby Wags shows up this year.....
    What was his deal last year? I know he had some sorta injury where he missed the bulk of the 2nd half, but he had a ridculous soph. slump by any standards. He was once tabbed as the closer of the future and was impressive around his debut, but now he's not even mentioned in the same breath of the closer by committee argument.

  11. #25
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    Re: Fearless Prediction: Starters Will Out-Perform Relievers in '06

    Quote Originally Posted by Gainesville Red
    Ruhle's still the pitching coach right? It seems like (and my lack of intrest in finding stats is about to show) after he and Narron arrived the pitching got a little better for the most part last year.
    Here's each pitcher and how they pitched under each pitching coach:
    Code:
                        Under Gullett         Under Ruhle
                     -------------------     -------------------
    Pitcher          Runs      IP    R/9     Runs      IP    R/9    Change
    Matt Belisle       25    45.0   5.00       24    40.2   5.31     +0.31
    Brandon Claussen   28    53.2   4.70       61   113.0   4.86     +0.16
    Todd Coffey        10    19.2   4.58       23    38.1   5.40     +0.82
    Aaron Harang       41    90.1   4.09       52   121.1   3.86     -0.23
    Luke Hudson        10    16.0   5.63       52    68.2   6.82     +1.19
    Randy Keisler      13    19.2   5.95       32    36.1   7.93     +1.98
    Kent Mercker       12    30.0   3.60       15    31.2   4.26     +0.66
    Eric Milton        76    81.2   8.38       65   104.2   5.59     -2.79
    Ramon Ortiz        41    56.2   6.51       69   114.2   5.42     -1.09
    Elizardo Ramirez   15    18.2   7.23        7     3.2  17.17     +9.94
    Ricky Stone        13    22.0   5.32       11     8.2  11.42     +6.10
    Joe Valentine      13    11.1  10.33        2     3.0   6.00     -4.33
    Ryan Wagner        25    37.1   6.03        8     8.1   8.64     +2.61
    David Weathers     19    36.2   4.66       17    41.0   3.73     -0.93
    Danny Graves       18    18.1   8.84                  
    Ben Weber          11    12.1   8.03                    
    Paul Wilson        41    46.1   7.96                  
    Chris Booker                                8     2.0  36.00
    Josh Hancock                                4    14.0   2.57
    Brian Shackelford                           9    29.2   2.73
    Allan Simpson                               5     6.2   6.75
    Standridge                                 14    31.0   4.06
    The only pitchers that pitched a significant amount of innings and improved were Harang (0.23 R/9), Milton (2.79 R/9), Ortiz (1.09 R/9), and Weathers (0.93 R/9) but then Ortiz and Milton were horrible in the first half and any improvement could just be them returning to a bit more of their norm. Everyone else declined under Ruhle from what they put up under Gullett. However, as a group, those that pitched under both coaches put up better R/9 results going 5.7 R/9 under Gullett while posting a 5.37 R/9 under Ruhle. I'm not certain, but I think both of those numbers still stink.

    The other thing you'll notice from the list is that the 3 pitchers who only pitched under Gullett were awful while Hancock, Shackelford, and Standridge all pitched pretty well under Ruhle, though both Booker and Simspon struggled. I don't know if this is because Ruhle had been working with these guys in the minors, so they were didn't have to unlearn Gullett or if it was just luck but all of the pitchers' peripherals hint at luck.

    Either way, I don't think there is any defentitive evidence based on 93 games last season that Vern Ruhle is going to make magic with this pitching staff. Perhaps one or two pitchers will pitch over their head in 2006, but if the talent isn't there, it's pretty hard for a pitching coach to make much out of what he's given.
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