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Thread: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

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    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Well, the Baseball America's Prospect Handbook arrived today in the mail - and as a little spring training primer, I've brought a taste here for everyone to enjoy.

    Although I do recommend picking up the book if you are a fan of the minor leagues or are a fantasy baseball player who plays in keeper leagues. I've found it invaluable and reference it often since I bought my first one three years ago.

    Anyway, on with the goods - You may recognize the first 10 from earlier in the winter when BA came out with the Reds Top 10. I've typed in a few of the 11-30 ranked Reds prospects, mostly for future reference here on the boards. I'lll add a couple of others in the next few days, but essentially - if you want to read all the rest go buy the book.

    Baseball America Ranks the Top 30 players in Each organization, along with a full rundown of they consider to be the depth chart for the team from top to bottom.

    First up, System Report Card

    Strength: Outfield. Unfortunately, that's also the team's strength in Cincy.
    Weakness: Infield. None of the Reds' infielders projects as an above average regular.
    Next the Draft Report Card

    2004 - B - Homer Bailey and BJ Syzmanski are two of the few bright spots in one of baseball's worst systems, and even they haven't done much. The Reds also have high hopes for Rafael Gonzalez, Paul Janish and Philippe Valiquette.
    2003 - D - This group looked promising a year ago. But then RHPs Ryan Wagner, Thomas Pauly and Richie Gardner all got hurt in 2005, leaving OF Chris Dickerson as the best healthy prospect.
    2002 - D - Both first round picks Chris Gruler and Mark Schramek aren't going to make it, with injuries playing a role in Gruler's demise. Joey Votto went backward in 05, so Chris Denorfia might be as good as it gets. Failing to sign Nick Markakis was a blunder.
    2001 - F - The Reds spent their first rounder on Jeremy Sowers and made no attempts to sign him. Bobby Basham is the best signee, and his stuff has slipped.
    The depth chart

    C
    Miguel Perez
    Dane Sardinha
    Craig Tatum
    Justin Tordi
    John Purdom
    Javier Rumbos

    1B
    Joey Votto
    Tonys Gutierrez

    2B
    William Bergolla
    Drew Anderson
    Mayker Sandoval

    SS
    Paul Janish
    Adam Rosales

    3B
    Michael Jones
    Brad Key
    Ronny Delgado
    Hablieto Hernandez

    LF
    Jeremiah Piepkorn

    CF
    BJ Syzmanski
    Chris Denorfia
    Brandon Roberts
    Chris Dickerson
    Javon Moran

    RF
    Jay Bruce
    Cody Strait
    Kenny Kelly

    Starters - RHP
    Homer Bailey
    Rafael Gonzales
    Travis Chick
    Zach Ward
    Richie Gardner
    Justin Germano
    James Avery
    Sam LeCure
    Bobby Basham
    Elizardo Ramirez
    Steve Kelly
    Jeff Stevens
    Chris Gruler

    Relievers - RHP
    Thomas Pauly
    David Shafer
    Mike Burns
    Carlos Guevara
    Abe Woody
    Allan Simpson
    Bubba Nelson
    Terrell Young
    Bo Lainer
    Jose Rojas

    Starters - LHP
    Travis Wood
    Tyler Pelland
    Phil Dumatrait
    Philippe Valiquette

    Relievers - LHP
    Omar Segovia
    Top 30 Prospects

    1. Homer Bailey - RHP
    Bailey has been pitching in pressure games since before he started shaving. He outdueled Ryan Wagner in the Texas 3-A state championship game as a freshman, and capped his high school career with a second state title as a senior. He ranked No. 1 on this list a year ago after signing for a $2.3 million bonus as the seventh overall pick in 2004, when he was also named BA’s High School Player of the Year. The Reds are exercising extreme caution with him, hoping he can avoid the injury bug that has claimed so many of their best pitching prospects in recent years. He pitched just 12 innings after signing in 2004, and was limited by a tandem-starter system with a strict 75-pitch limit in 2005. He worked six innings in a start only once all season and went as many as five innings in just five other outings, yet still managed to claim the title of top pitching prospect in the low Class A Midwest League. He was sidelined for a couple of weeks in April as he worked back from minor knee surgery, a problem that had nagged him since high school. While his first full season was unremarkable statistically, he showed glimpses of his promise in the final month with a pair of scoreless five-inning outings, including an 11-strikeout two-hitter. Bailey has front-of-the-rotation stuff. He’s armed with two plus pitches—a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96-97 with good life, and a hard 12-to-6 curveball with potential to be a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He pounds the bottom of the strike zone and usually hits his spots. His control will be another plus. Though he did issue more than his share of walks in 2005, the Reds attribute that to their insistence that he work on his secondary pitches. A former basketball player, Bailey is a natural athlete with an effortless arm action and clean delivery that bode well for future projection. He should get stronger, as there’s room to pack more weight on his 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame. Bailey’s changeup always will lag behind his two knockout pitches. It’s presently a below-average pitch with just a little sink. He did make it a point to throw the changeup more in 2005, and he did a better job of delivering it with the same arm speed he uses with his fastball. Bailey doesn’t always stay on top of his curveball. He also needs to improve his consistency and show that he can pitch effectively on nights where he doesn’t have his best stuff. Like many dominant high school starters, he didn’t have to work on such nuances as holding runners and quickening his move to the plate. He has made steady improvement in both areas, and he has addressed his rhythm and tempo on the mound. Bailey has admitted that baseball is more of a job than a passion. To achieve his potential as an ace, he’ll have to stay focused as he moves up the ladder. While the Reds have yet to turn Bailey loose, they may challenge him with a jump to Double-A Chattanooga in 2006. Though he’s not on the 40-man roster, he has been invited to big league camp to get a taste of what awaits him. He could be poised for a breakthrough season.

    2. Jay Bruce - OF
    Bruce went from unknown to prospect during the summer of 2004, and his surge continued last spring as he emerged as the cream of a quality crop of Texas high school outfielders. He went No. 12 to the Reds and signed for $1.8 million. He ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the Rookie-level Pioneer League in his debut. Bruce draws comparisons to Larry Walker and Jeremy Hermida for his sweet stroke, above-average arm and athleticism. He profiles as a power-hitting right fielder, but the Reds intend to keep him in center until he grows out of the position. He can turn on a fastball, but he also has shown the ability to use the entire field with good bat speed. He has plus speed and good overall instincts. Like many young players, Bruce needs to work on the finer aspects of the game, such as reading pitchers and honing his basestealing technique. He occasionally gets antsy at the plate instead of sitting back and waiting on pitches to drive. Bruce will make his full-season debut at low Class A Dayton. A five-tool talent, his bat will dictate how rapidly he advances.

    3. Travis Wood - LHP
    Background: Wood is the highest-drafted Arkansas high school pitcher since the Reds took Dustin Moseley in 1999’s supplemental first round. Wood intrigued teams by reaching 95 mph with his fastball as the draft approached, and he dominated two Rookie leagues after signing for $600,000. Wood’s changeup drops off the table and already rates as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He fools hitters by repeating the same arm speed and motion as when he throws his fastball. He regularly hit 93-94 mph and threw to both sides of the plate with good life during the summer. He also features a cutter. Wood’s curveball isn’t as developed as his other pitches. The Reds have made refining his curve a point of emphasis, and they promoted him to Rookie-level Billings to work with curveball specialist Butch Henry. Wood has some effort in his delivery. Wood aced his introduction to pro ball and seems more than ready for low Class A. He has considerable upside, though coming up with a reliable breaking ball will be crucial.

    4. B.J. Szymanski - OF
    A two-sport star at Princeton, Szymanski was the football team’s leading receiver and led the baseball team to the Ivy League title as a junior in 2003-04. Already lacking experience thanks to his dual-sport commitment, he has been hampered by injuries as a pro. A quadriceps injury shortened his 2004 debut, and he missed time in 2005 because of arthroscopic knee surgery and a broken hand. When healthy, Szymanski showcases three impact tools, including explosive raw power from both sides of the plate. He has 30-homer potential in the majors. A chiseled athlete, he can fly around the bases and cover the gaps in center field. His arm is average. Szymanski’s swing gets long, and strikeouts and a lower batting average will be a tradeoff for his power. He’s still raw and must improve in the fine points of the game, such as getting jumps and running the bases. Injuries have limited him to just 272 pro at-bats. Coming into 2005, Szymanski looked poised for a breakout season. Ticketed for high Class A Sarasota, he’s again a prime candidate if he can stay in the lineup.

    5. Chris Denorfia - OF
    With his September callup, Denorfia ensured his title as the top male athlete in Wheaton (Mass.) College history. He earned Division III all-America honors in 2002, when he batted .467. He doesn’t have overwhelming tools, but Denorfia has surprised scouts with his improved hitting and power the last two seasons. He displays a good feel for the strike zone and works counts in his favor. He’s a solid runner with enough range to play center field. He’s average defensively in center field and he has enough arm strength to play right. Denorfia doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses. He doesn’t have exceptional bat speed and his swing doesn’t naturally produce loft power. He’s already getting everything out of his ability, so there isn’t much projection left to him. Denorfia is ready to contribute in Cincinnati after a strong Arizona Fall League performance. He may not be more than a fourth outfielder, especially with the Reds’ position depth.

    6. Rafael Gonzalez - RHP
    Gonzalez signed with the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic in 2003, but that deal was voided because he was a U.S. citizen who had played at Manhattan’s George Washington High before moving to the Dominican as a junior. After signing for $315,000 as a fourth-round pick in 2004, he disappointed the Reds by showing up out of shape for spring training, leaving him unprepared to handle low Class A. His stuff is just a tick behind Homer Bailey’s for the best in the system. Gonzalez throws 92-94 mph and peaks at 97, and he also shows a plus curveball and an average changeup at times. Gonzalez has a soft, thick lower half and struggles to keep his weight under control. His stamina and stuff suffered in 2005 until he dedicated more time to cardiovascular work. His secondary pitches and control are very inconsistent. The Reds hope Gonzalez learned his lesson and will be better equipped to succeed in low Class A in 2006. He flashes top-of-the-rotation stuff but must dedicate himself to realize his potential.

    7. Miguel Perez - C
    Though he has hit just .240 above Rookie ball, Perez made his big league debut before he turned 22 in September. His defensive ability has helped him land jobs in the Venezuela Winter League the past two offseasons. Perez is the organization’s best defensive catcher, with well above-average throwing and receiving skills. He erased 44 percent of basestealers in 2005 and likes to pick off runners with snap throws to first base. He handles pitchers well and runs well for a catcher. Perez’ bat hasn’t caught up with his catch-and-throw skills and may relegate him to a backup role. He has limited power (nine homers in five pro seasons) and plate discipline, though the Reds think he could hit 10-15 homers annually. When he keeps his hands back, he does a better job of driving the ball. After his short September audition, Perez will go to Double-A in 2006. With the productive tandem of Jason LaRue and Javier Valentin, the Reds don’t need to rush Perez.

    8. Tyler Pelland - LHP
    Background: Cincinnati acquired lefties Phil Dumatrait and Pelland from the Red Sox for Scott Williamson at the July 2003 trade deadline. While Dumatrait has been waylaid by Tommy John surgery, Pelland quickly emerged as the top lefty in the Reds system. After posting an 8.66 ERA in low Class A in 2004, he made a successful transition to full-season ball, jumping to high Class A, in 2005. Pelland throws his four-seam fastball at 92-93 mph and can dial it up to 95 at times, and he also has a lively two-seamer. He commands his fastball well, and shows the ability to spin a plus curveball. He’s a good athlete who has dominated in spurts. Pelland’s curve is inconsistent. When it’s not on, hitters can sit on his fastball because his circle changeup is below average and hasn’t developed as expected. At 22, he’s still far from a refined product, as his control numbers suggest, although as a Northeastern pitcher, he doesn’t have many innings on his arm. Pelland has a fresh arm, but needs to take a significant step forward as he approaches Double-A. If he can’t improve his secondary pitches, a future in the bullpen awaits him.

    9. Joey Votto - 1B
    The Reds tried to cut costs in the 2002 draft with disastrous results, as Denorfia and Votto are the lone bright spots from that crop. After establishing himself as the system’s best power prospect, he had a disappointing 2005 and continued to struggle in the Arizona Fall League. Votto can launch balls out of sight in batting practice. He drew 90 walks in 2004, showing a disciplined, mature approach. For a big man and former catcher, Votto runs the bases well, and he has grown into a solid defensive first baseman with an above-average arm for the position. Votto lacks plus bat speed and his swing lengthened in 2005. Perhaps too passive in the past, he seemed to start guessing, finding himself behind fastballs and ahead of offspeed offerings. He especially struggled against lefties, hitting .193 with a .315 slugging percentage. Votto’s prospect stock has taken a hit, though he’s still the top first-base prospect in the system. He needs to rediscover his short stroke and trust his natural hitting instincts in Double-A in 2006.

    10. Travis Chick - RHP
    Background: Four years into his pro career, Chick has played for three organizations. A little-known Marlins prospect when he was traded for Ismael Valdez in 2004, he quickly blossomed for the Padres and was one of the surprises of spring training in 2005. After he stalled in Double-A, San Diego sent him and Justin Germano to Cincinnati for Joe Randa last July. Though Chick’s velocity was down in 2005, he still had a 91-92 mph fastball that touched 94. His hard slider has good bite and is an average pitch with above-average potential. Chick has a solid pitcher’s frame. After dominating low Class A in 2004, Chick couldn’t handle jumping to Double-A. He was a victim of big innings all season, unable to get out of jams. His slider was inconsistent, while his changeup remained below-average. He’s more of a thrower than a pitcher. Chick has to hone his slider and maintain his mechanics to get back on track. He’ll probably repeat Double-A in 2006. Unless his changeup develops, he projects as a power middle reliever.

    11. William Bergolla - 2B

    12. Philip Dumatrait - LHP

    13. Zach Ward - RHP
    Ward hardly attracted a second look coming out of high school, but jumped from a mid 80s project as an incoming freshman to a mid-90s fireballer in the course of one year after Gardner-Webb coaches worked on developing his arm strength. He dominated the Cape Code league in 2004 and became Gardner-Webb's highest drafted player ever as a third rounder in 2005. After being used heavily in the spring, Ward didn't pitch in the minors after signing for $420k. When he did take the mound during instructional league, the Reds were impressed with his 93-94 mph fastball and his plus slider, which sits around 86-87 mph. His changeup has a long way to go, though it could become a usable third pitch. The concerns about Ward stem from his mechanics. Ward has a "bow-and-arrow" delivery in which he simply rears back and fires. He also short arms the ball, reminding some scouts of Red Sox reliever Keith Foulke. Despite that, Ward was durable in college and has a strong frame. The Reds plan to see if he can develop into a middle of the rotation starter. If that doesn't work, his fastball/slider combo could make him a closer or late inning setup man. He'll probably make his pro debut in low Class A.

    14. Paul Janish - SS

    15. Adam Rosales - SS
    Rosales was the Reds first-day find of the 2005 draft. Area scout Rick Sellers was adamant that the Western Michigan senior was being sold short, and Cincinnati was able to take Rosales in the 12th round. Rosales made Sellers look wise, batting .325 with 14 homers and a system best .946OPS in his pro debut after hitting .309 with six homers as a college senior. Some area scouts questioned whether Rosales would hit with wood bats, but he showed the ability to center the ball and hit for power. He has solid bat speed and his swing is compact, but it isn't pretty. He swings on a downward plane, yet is able to loft the ball when needed. He also has average speed and plus arm strength. Rosales' range at SS could be a question as he gets older and bigger, but he has good hands and currently covers enough ground. He far exceeded expectations in his first pro year, which should earn him a promotion to high Class A.

    16. Richie Gardner - RHP

    17. Thomas Pauly - RHP

    18. Brandon Roberts - OF

    19. Chris Dickerson - OF

    20. Philippe Valiquette - LHP

    21. Justin Germano - RHP

    22. James Avery - RHP

    23. Sam LeCure - RHP

    24. Bobby Basham - RHP
    Among the several Cincinnati pitching prospects who have been hampered by injuries, Basham has had the quickest rise and fall. After his dominating performance in low Class A in 2002, several Reds officials considered him the system's top pitching prospect. But his velocity and his once-dominating slider disappeared in 2003. An MRI found no damage, though eventually he was diagnosed with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He had surgery to repair that tear and to remove bone spurs, sidelining him for the entire 2004 season. When he returned to the mound last year, the former Richmond backup QB showed steady progress. He built up arm strength, working at 87-90 mph for most of the season and touching 92-93 mph in his later starts. He had a 90-93 mph fastball before he got hurt. His slider wasn't as nasty as it once was, but it was showing signs of being at least an average pitch. His changeup is usable, and he threw strikes with his usual ease. Basham pitched well in Double-A in the 2nd half, earning his first shot at AAA in 2006.

    25. Javon Moran - OF

    26. David Shafer - RHP
    Shafer pitched with Oakland's Rich Harden at Central Arizona Junior College in 2001, then was a part of a junior college World Series Championship in 2002 before signing as a draft and follow. He got off to a quick start last year, not allowing a run in 10 high Class A outings to earn a promotion to AA, where he held his own. He was effective as a part-time closer, but his 88-92 mph fastball, average slider and improving changeup mean that he profiles as a setup man or middle releiver. Shafer keeps the ball down and did a good job of throwing strikes before he got to AA. He has a resilient arm that has stood up well to the rigors of bullpen work. Shafer doesn't have a high ceiling, but the Reds need relief help and he could contribute in the near future.

    27. Mike Burns - RHP

    28. Calvin Medlock - RHP
    Few pitchers in the system made more strides in 2005 than Medlock. In his first taste of high Class A the year before, he struggled to keep the ball down and showed little feel for his curveball. In his return trip, he dominated batters with a live 88-92 mph fastball that seemed to jump on hitters. He showed added arm speed and tweaked his arm angle. That allowed him to get more downward plane on his fastball, always a challenge for the 5-10 righthander. His curveball returned to effectiveness, his changeup improved and he threw more strikes than ever. Used mostly as a starter, Medlock better fits the profile of a middle reliever. But he has earned the right to remain in the rotation as he advances to AA.

    29. Tonys Gutierrez - 1B

    30. Elizardo Ramirez - RHP
    Ramirez is one of the rare pitchers who may throw too many strikes. Picked up with Javon Moran and Joe Wilson from the Phillies in the Cory Lidle deal, he has earned short stints in the majors during each of the past two seasons. The results haven't been pretty, primarily because big leaguers have discovered that he's always around the plate with hittable stuff. He currently lacks an out pitch, and he doesn't do a good job of expanding the zone to get batters to chase pitches. He especially has troubles against lefties, who hit .386 off him in the majors and .303 in AAA in 2005. But Ramirez does have three very usable pitches: an 88-92 mph fastball, an average curveball and an average changeup. He throws all of them with a loose and easy motion and nearly flawless mechanics. He's working on adding a cutter or developing some sink to his fastball. He'll work on refining his stuff in AAA to begin the season.

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  3. #2
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Thanks for posting this JM

    Boy those 2001-2003 drafts are ugly.
    Go Gators!

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Great post, glad you posted it. Going to have to be sure to check out the handbook soon.

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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    RF
    Jay Bruce
    Cody Strait
    Kenny Kelly
    I thought he was DFA'd and taken by Washington?
    Championships Matter.
    24 Years and Counting...

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    If Bailey starts in AA I'm torn between whether it lines him up for TJ surgery or whether his rotator cuff goes kerplooey.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    M2, I would say no way Bailey starts in Chattanooga. He could be promoted there this year, but it just doesnt seem that they would just skip Sarasota, because Bailey still needs work.

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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Well it looks like Bailey wants to start in AA this year...so maybe I am wrong.

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    If Bailey starts in AA I'm torn between whether it lines him up for TJ surgery or whether his rotator cuff goes kerplooey.
    Or both.

    Do the Reds ever learn on stuff like this?
    Go Gators!

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Or both.

    Do the Reds ever learn on stuff like this?
    They must kill the things they love.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    M2, I would say no way Bailey starts in Chattanooga. He could be promoted there this year, but it just doesnt seem that they would just skip Sarasota, because Bailey still needs work.
    When you've been in the desert, water tastes like wine. I wouldn't be surprised to see them overpromote Bailey. I think the kid's talented and has a great competitive mentality, but even if he survives for awhile he'll eventually hit a major roadblock, whether it be injury or getting hammered consistently -- and then all bets are off. The organization needs patience here, but that's not what Castellini is selling.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Thanks for posting this JM

    Boy those 2001-2003 drafts are ugly.
    2004 is only a arm injury or two away(like happened last year to the 2003 class) from being just as bad.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    When you've been in the desert, water tastes like wine. I wouldn't be surprised to see them overpromote Bailey. I think the kid's talented and has a great competitive mentality, but even if he survives for awhile he'll eventually hit a major roadblock, whether it be injury or getting hammered consistently -- and then all bets are off. The organization needs patience here, but that's not what Castellini is selling.
    That is so true curve, but lets pray that they dont put him anywhere except where they think he has the best chance to develop rather than where he thinks he should be, or where it will put him on a fast track to the bigs.

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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    When you've been in the desert, water tastes like wine. I wouldn't be surprised to see them overpromote Bailey.
    I don't think the Reds are going to overpromote Bailey for one simple reason. If you promote Bailey it shows that O'Brien isn't as incompetent as everyone makes him out to be. If Castellini/Krivsky keep Bailey in the lower levels and he blows out his arm then that can be used as further proof that Lindner/O'Brien couldn't do anything correct.

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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Quote Originally Posted by harangatang
    I don't think the Reds are going to overpromote Bailey for one simple reason. If you promote Bailey it shows that O'Brien isn't as incompetent as everyone makes him out to be. If Castellini/Krivsky keep Bailey in the lower levels and he blows out his arm then that can be used as further proof that Lindner/O'Brien couldn't do anything correct.
    That's like taking a shotgun to your forehead to prove your parents were idiots to have children.
    Championships Matter.
    24 Years and Counting...

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds BA Top 30 Prospects, Org Depth Chart & Scouting Reports

    Here is a question....if the Reds promote Bailey to Chattanooga and he hurts his arm, wouldnt he in all likelihood have hurt his arm pitching in Sarasota?


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