WWKD? (What Will Krivsky Do?)

[RedEye]

Even I'm a bit tired of monitoring the on-going Krivsky Name Poll, which by the way has the catch-all 'Other' category narrowly beating out 'Kriv' so far. Anyway, I thought I'd expand my thinking from WK's blog alias to his future stratergery with the Reds.

If what we've seen so far is any indication, this is a workaholic GM with a quick trigger finger and an impatient intelligence to go with his Terry Ryan pedigree. Judging from the tone of recent posts, Red fandom seems to be cautiously optimistic about this combination. And why not? He just signed our best player to a 3-year deal which, under DanO, seemed next to impossible.

So... what will Way-K do over the next year or two in order to point this ship in the right direction?

My best guess (and I'm clearly not stretching my brain too far for this) is that he will reconfigure the team around the extant small-market, Twins model: good pitching and defense with reasonably-priced, timely hitting. Of course, that will require working with what we already have, which is terrible pitching and bad defense with soon-to-be unreasonably-priced, untimely hitting.

Sadly, I think what this all means is that we Reds faithful will endure some uncertainty and pain over the next few years. Here are some things I see likely to happen

1) Dunn and/or Pena get traded for pitching. The unsung thing about Austin Kearns is that he is actually a fairly solid outfielder, unlike his two young buddies (is Mo his buddy?). Dunn, I think, is the most likely to go since he is already coveted by several pitching-rich franchises. I'm not sure of the timing on this, but I think it is pretty likely that a non-contending Reds team trades our friend Adam for a pair of young arms, possibly before the end of 2006. Mo's case is a bit more complicated since he has not yet posted dependable value. If he does start rocking, look for him to get traded around the deadline this year. Yes, that means that we're looking at a Denorfia-Kearns-Freel outfield. Not the star names we're used to, but perhaps a better set-up for a team trying to develop a financial emphasis on pitching contracts.

2) Lopez, LaRue, and Encarnacion become the core of the infield with Aurilia and Womack backing them up. LaRue is a solid defensive catcher (Bob Boone eat your heart out) and perhaps more importantly he is great at handling pitchers. We need him for the next few years. Lopez and Encarnacion are still a bit raw on defense, but both display flashes of the type of range you want for an infield built around fielding ground balls. If Dunn goes, I think Kriv is comfortable with Hatteberg as an interim starter until someone else (Joey Votto?) arrives to replace him.

3) Milton and Wilson end up in the bullpen. They are both clearly washed up as starters, but could have value as long relievers or spot starters. We ride out their contracts thus and then dump them promptly after 2007.

4) If they fail at landing a pitcher in a trade for Dunn/Pena, the Reds go after several free agent pitchers in the off season of 2006. However, Kriv knows better than to invest all his money in a Chan Ho Park or an Eric Milton, instead opting for young, second tier free agents who throw heavy sliders. If anyone knows some names that might qualify here, I'd be more than interested.

5) Homer Bailey is joined in the minor leagues by a slew of smart Special K draftees, many of whom arrive from well-scouted college teams or Latin American countries. They start to appear in small droves in 2007 and 2008, slowly making Reds fans forget the high scoring days of yesteryear by posting sub 4.00 ERA's. By 2009, Reds fans begin to speculate about how to get some offense to back them up.

Okay, so that last number is a bit fanciful... but what do you all think?

[Krusty]

If I was Krivsky, here is what I would do:

1. Trade Junior to the White Sox for Jose Contreras and a prospect. Reds would bolster their pitching staff and gain salary relief after the 2006 season.

2. Trade Pena and Milton to the Dodgers for lst baseman Choi and pitcher Odalis Perez. Milton might be better in Dodger Stadium and Perez needs a change of scenery. Choi is the odd man out with Garciaparra at lst and Pena fills a void in LF for the Dodgers. Dunn would shift back to left field. (Okay, the trade isn't my idea but makes some sense).

3. Trade Ryan Wagner to the Devil Rays for OF Joey Gathright.

Lineup:
1. Gathright cf
2. Freel 2b
3. Lopez ss (I think he will be an excellent number 3 hitter)
4. Dunn lf
5. Kearns rf
6. Choi lb
7. LaRue/Valentin c
8. Encarncion 3b

Starting pitchers:
Contreras rhp
Perez lhp
Harang rhp
Claussen lhp
Wilson rhp or Beisle rhp

[Highlifeman21]

1) Dunn and/or Pena get traded for pitching. The unsung thing about Austin Kearns is that he is actually a fairly solid outfielder, unlike his two young buddies (is Mo his buddy?). Dunn, I think, is the most likely to go since he is already coveted by several pitching-rich franchises. I'm not sure of the timing on this, but I think it is pretty likely that a non-contending Reds team trades our friend Adam for a pair of young arms, possibly before the end of 2006. Mo's case is a bit more complicated since he has not yet posted dependable value. If he does start rocking, look for him to get traded around the deadline this year. Yes, that means that we're looking at a Denorfia-Kearns-Freel outfield. Not the star names we're used to, but perhaps a better set-up for a team trying to develop a financial emphasis on pitching contracts.

2) Lopez, LaRue, and Encarnacion become the core of the infield with Aurilia and Womack backing them up. LaRue is a solid defensive catcher (Bob Boone eat your heart out) and perhaps more importantly he is great at handling pitchers. We need him for the next few years. Lopez and Encarnacion are still a bit raw on defense, but both display flashes of the type of range you want for an infield built around fielding ground balls. If Dunn goes, I think Kriv is comfortable with Hatteberg as an interim starter until someone else (Joey Votto?) arrives to replace him.

3) Milton and Wilson end up in the bullpen. They are both clearly washed up as starters, but could have value as long relievers or spot starters. We ride out their contracts thus and then dump them promptly after 2007.

4) If they fail at landing a pitcher in a trade for Dunn/Pena, the Reds go after several free agent pitchers in the off season of 2006. However, Kriv knows better than to invest all his money in a Chan Ho Park or an Eric Milton, instead opting for young, second tier free agents who throw heavy sliders. If anyone knows some names that might qualify here, I'd be more than interested.

5) Homer Bailey is joined in the minor leagues by a slew of smart Special K draftees, many of whom arrive from well-scouted college teams or Latin American countries. They start to appear in small droves in 2007 and 2008, slowly making Reds fans forget the high scoring days of yesteryear by posting sub 4.00 ERA's. By 2009, Reds fans begin to speculate about how to get some offense to back them up.

Okay, so that last number is a bit fanciful... but what do you all think?

Well... These are interesting from an executive standpoint and from a fan standpoint. Obvious as a fan if #1 were to become fact, I'd want Wily Mo to be Wily No Mo in the Queen City, and keep Dunn, but from an executive view, Dunn has WAY more value than Pena. The only problem with trading Dunn is the fact he's a core rebuilding guy and how do you honestly put a price on trading away a franchise type player while keeping the Redleg faithful happy? I only say this as we've recently watched a "fan favorite" traded away named Sean Casey (although not a favorite of this fan), and there wasn't ultimately that much backlash at sending him up the PA turnpike.

#2: Lopez and EE should be the future of the IF. RichA and ToWo should be back ups at BEST on any ballclub. LaRue has 2 things going for him, 1 going against him, and 1 on the fence; He's signed to a good contract for the Reds and he is a defensive asset with his arm. Going against him is his age, he's on the wrong side of 30 and as to him being great at handling pitchers, I haven't seen any convincing evidence of this, and he doesn't call a lot of the games, so do we really know how great he is at handling pitchers? Maybe a conversation with Tony Pena might help that situation. Unfortunately, we don't have a solid future C option, so we need to address that in the not so distant future.

#3: Nicely put. Milton is done. Wilson from a fan standpoint I hope he bounces back from injury, but I think these two are gonna compete for a mop up role.

#4: Wouldn't it be beautiful if we could land a great pitching coach and or develop some pitching in the minors? Another good point by you though my man.

#5: Let's hope Bailey doesn't become the next Ty Howington or Chris Gruler.



Ideally, we need Wily Mo Pena to increase his trade value, b/c I think an OF of Denorfia - Griffey - Kearns is a good option, and we've had success developing OF, so when Griffey hangs em up, we'll have someone to step in and fill that void. Unfortunately, we need to let ToWo and RichA to play everyday to make them marketable like Randa of 2004 and ship them to someone at the trade deadline and get something for essentially nothing to us. I don't see any teams out there really willing to give up good, solid young pitching unless we're willing to trade Dunn, and at the end of the day is that the best move for the Reds?

[TeamBoone]

I only say this as we've recently watched a "fan favorite" traded away named Sean Casey (although not a favorite of this fan), and there wasn't ultimately that much backlash at sending him up the PA turnpike.

This is true, but I think a lot of fan "silence" can be attributed to the fact that the trade was snuck in during the offseason.

Unfortunately, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if a whole lot of casual fans don't even know he's no longer on the team. And when they go to their first game this year, they'll just think he's not in the lineup that day.... seriously.

I've heard some really really outlandish conversations at the ballpark by people who call themselves Reds fans. Majorly unbelievable... so the above scenario is probably not that far off the money.

I just shake my head and eat another peanut.

[Mario-Rijo]

Great post, I agree wholeheartedly.

Originally posted by Team Boone

This is true, but I think a lot of fan "silence" can be attributed to the fact that the trade was snuck in during the offseason.

Unfortunately, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if a whole lot of casual fans don't even know he's no longer on the team. And when they go to their first game this year, they'll just think he's not in the lineup that day.... seriously.

I've heard some really really outlandish conversations at the ballpark by people who call themselves Reds fans. Majorly unbelievable... so the above scenario is probably not that far off the money.

I just shake my head and eat another peanut.

I will add my version of what Krivsky WILL DO on my Next Post!

[Nugget]

I like the way you think Red-Eye no use naming players that come in through a trade just the kind of players that can come.

The only differences is I think Womack is only here for this year and Bergolla will make the step up later this year or next. I think Votto is at least two years away from Major Leagues but you never know what will happen in AAA. You will probably also see K move to a position where we have guys who are serviceable in the corner outfield positions and be around the 1 million mark. There are heaps of these guys and if your on a limited budget you can spend more on pitching and less on the outfield and markedly improve the teams pitching without giving up too many runs. I don't see Homer making it to the bigs or any other home grown pitcher in the next two years.

[Mario-Rijo]

I know what I would LIKE him to do, but it's not always that cut & dry. So I will try to see the team through his eyes based on his philosophy of pitching and defense, and couple that with where everyone is on the organizational depth chart. We also have to keep in mind that the payroll will be modest this season, and likely only go up 5-10 mill over the 1st season or two. Unless of course the miracoulous happens!


Pitching: Let's face it only Harang, Claussen, Wagner and perhaps Coffey and Belisle have a reasonable chance of being our core over the next 2 years and beyond. Unless we uncover a diamond or 2 this year, the odds of that happening are somewhat slim. You have a few guys with a chance of getting to those guys levels. They are in no particular order.......

Elizardo Ramirez: Needs to polish up his pitches and learn how to expand the strike zone because his command is already very good. If he can do that he could climb into that rotation quickly and give us 3 solid starters or if you prefer a nice 3-4-5 of Harang-Claussen-Ramirez.

Justin Germano: Has the ability to get groundballs, that's great if you have solid and above defense behind him so I don't expect him to make it this year but perhaps next year he will have a shot assuming, we improve the defense.

Luke Hudson: He's running out of time, as the DFA proves. We know his story fix the command and we have got a solid #2. Also needs to stay healthy.

Mike Gosling: I am just throwing him out there because he's not a proven commodity yet, he may never be but I guess we will see.

I may be missing someone (if I am lemme know) but I think those are the arms that most likely have any chance of making a better than average impact this year.

Defense: Listing the guys who Can Be or are better than average defensively. Austin Kearns and Jason Larue are above average in many ways so they will be here the next 2 yrs. Felipe Lopez and Adam Dunn can be above average taking into consideration their athleticism. Edwin Encarnacion can be special if his bat follows (I believe it will, eventually). So what does that leave? LF, CF, 2B. I believe at some point Denorfia will be our LF and an above average one at that. Freel is solid if he can play in control at 2B but he cannot start 162 so Womack will split time with him and give us a reasonable defensive 2B most of this year. Which brings us to the most important defensive position on the field after C and SS. CF what will we do here? Well what do we have in the pipeline ughhh nothing until Jay Bruce (COF?) and/or B.J. Szymanski (Maybe not a Starter?) comes up, which I expect will be at least 2 years.

If Wily Mo is slumping look for Denorfia to get the nod and help the overall range in the OF. The tradeoff could be the offense but it would then give us that RH power off the bench. Really what it comes down to is how Wily Mo improves in all aspects, that will be a pivotal situation.

So where does that all leave us? We still would need a #1 Starter if everything panned out and that can't come via a trade or FA if we have all that money locked up in Jr. and/or Eric Milton unless of course we play way above our heads until late July. Right now those 2 are hurting us in more ways than 1. Like it or not Jr. is the key, we have to get rid of that salary even if we have to eat some of it. Lindner could have bailed us out on that one last trade deadline, way to go there Mr. Lindner. We could have had Chris Young waiting in the wings for CF real soon and could have had the dollars to p/u a solid arm in the last offseason. So my thinking is Jr. is the target to better us even if it doesn't look that way at 1st, we may not get much in return or we'll have to eat some dollars one or the other and maybe both. But it must be done, and Wayne knows it. The other targets are Milton (money) and Wily Mo (defense). Wily might be awhile.

Defense In the pipeline:
William Bergolla (Find a bat)
Miguel Perez (Find a bat)
Jay Bruce
B.J. Szymanski
Adam Rosales (3B?)

Pitching in the pipeline:
Homer Bailey
Travis Wood
Justin Germano
Travis Chick

Not alot but we have 2B, C and CF covered if these guys pan out. So even this points to cutting ties with Jr. as we have the most organizational depth at CF (w/ Denorfia, B.J. and Bruce) than any other position. Also if Votto doesn't get his defense together he will get shipped.

This is what I think Krivsky has to be thinking. Trade Jr. get a solid prospect or 2, save some cash. Couple that with Dealing Milton (a big maybe) and Wily Mo before this time next year and have a solid defensive team and decent offense and then work on the pitching with the ava. dollars. And then put alot of emphasis on finding gems via the draft, rule 4, waiver wire etc.

BTW Alex Sanchez is ava. still I think. Not a bad player for what we need if he's not on "The Juice".

[Highlifeman21]

Honestly, I see WK sitting on the roster for this year for a few reasons. 1, evaluate our "everyday" talent. 2, assess exactly how horrible our pitching is, and find a road map to fix it. 3, enter talks with some of his GM friends to see the market value of some of our players. 4, he probably doesn't want to get labeled as too trigger happy. 5, if he does make any moves, it will and probably should be just to unload Aurillia and Womack, or maybe an old reliever to a contender that may need a 30+ year old fill in.

Following what will probably be a 75 to 80 win campaign this year, expect moves to be made in the offseason and the 06 winter meetings. These are some moves I wouldn't mind seeing, and actually see the possibility of happening.

1. Trade Aurillia and or Womack and possibly Jacob Cruz to the Astros for Taylor Buchholz. Houston has issues with Bagwell and Biggio, and haven't gotten the everyday consistency out of the 4 headed monster of Burke, Ensberg, Everett or Lamb. Aurilla would give them that veteran dependable bat they are essentially losing with either Bagwell or Biggio (b/c they both can't play forever), and Womack is similar to Biggio minus leading the universe in getting hit by pitches. Buchholz is still very young and would allow us an opportunity to do the impossible: develop a young arm.

2. Trade Wily Mo to an AL team, probably the Rangers due to the fact they have an ancient Phil Nevin @ DH, and Wilkerson and Nix are their only claims to fame in the OF. Everything is bigger in Texas, and WMP would bring the kinda power to Arlington that Rangers fans haven't seen since Juan Gone in the OF. Scott Feldman or Edison Volquez are 2 young live arms to look for in return for the services of WMP. Both have age on their side and have tremendous upside, but are tortured to pitch for the Rangers (who possibly have worse pitching than the Reds).

3. Trade Eric Milton in what will be the last year of his contract for anything. Bottomline, Milton needs to be moved before the beginning of the 2007 season, and look for WK to practically give this guy away just to get rid of his salary and to allow owner Cowboy Bob the chance to more wisely spend 8 million a year. With how big contract hungry the Mets are, look for them to pick up Milton's tab since they have a history for overpaying for left handed starters.

4. After the 2006 season, be VERY active in going after Free Agents. Cowboy Bob has talked winner on the field since day 1 of his regime, so look for him to let WK go after FA arms around the winter meetings, much like the Blue Jays scooped up arms in a similar fashion this past winter meeting.

While I don't see much happening this year (although I could be completely wrong) in terms of movement, look for the offseason of 2006 before the 2007 campaign to be the time when the new Reds front office leaves their mark. For better or worse.