Fair statement. Yet, I don't think it bears a whole lot on the HS vs college draft debate. Given that all players entering pro ball get 6 years in the minors before free agency, your HS player will hit that 3-4 year window in the majors at about 26-27 years old, if he's been promoted one-level-at-a-time. By that time, the organization will know all it needs to know (and the player will not have hit peak, unlike a college player, therefore making the player less expensive to keep, perhaps). The key is that the organization needs to have patience with high schoolers, but patience has gone fishin.for a modern scout, great is what a player does when he's cheap-- the first 3-4 major league years.
After that, performance is completely to the credit or fault of the the GM, as he's got to decide whether to pay or to deal