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Thread: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

  1. #16
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    nope. demonstrating they have value. And after last year, all they showed was ????
    Just answering the question. I don't see any one player's fortunes, good or bad, being a large contributor to making a difference between a good or bad season for the team. The Reds are not a team of unfulfilled potential, they are a team lacking one of the game's most important components--pitching. It's like a football team with an overall poor defense, whereby one guy "stepping up" will have little impact on the big picture. Perhaps I'm just reading the question in too vague of a way, I don't know.
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  3. #17
    Member PickOff's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Dave Williams. If Claussen continues to improve, Harang maintains, and Dave Williams blossoms, then the Reds can trade for a one our two next year, and Milton can fill out the rotation. With H,C,W producing, that gives the Reds three sure fire starters in their mid-twenties, gives you something to work from. If Williams fails to step up, however, it is hard to see how the Reds can be competitive in the next couple years, needing to find 2 starters, instead of one. (We are stuck with Milton, but he can't possibly be as bad as last year, and I think he'll manage a sub 5.00 era the next two years.)
    Thank goodness for baseball.

  4. #18
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Both Milton Claussen and in the pen Wagner

  5. #19
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Pena,Kearns,Claussen and Wagner. Time for the young talent to jell.

  6. #20
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    He's already there.

    This team needs other players to jump up to the tier below that.

    Code:
    SEASON
    2005
    RBI >= 100
    RUNS >= 100
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    EXTRA BASE HITS                 EBH      RBI       R      RC/G      AGE    
    1    Derrek Lee                   99      107      120     5.68       29   
    2    David Ortiz                  88      148      119     4.07       29   
    3    Mark Teixeira                87      144      112     3.02       25   
    4    Jason Bay                    82      101      110     3.72       26   
    T5   Alfonso Soriano              81      104      102     1.03       29   
    T5   Albert Pujols                81      117      129     4.89       25   
    T7   Alex Rodriguez               78      130      124     5.33       29   
    T7   Miguel Cabrera               78      116      106     2.70       22   
    9    Adam Dunn                    77      101      107     2.66       25   
    10   Manny Ramirez                76      144      112     3.12       33   
    11   Hideki Matsui                71      116      108     1.64       31   
    12   Jeff Kent                    65      105      100     1.65       37   
    13   Bobby Abreu                  62      102      104     2.47       31   
    14   Gary Sheffield               61      123      104     2.42       36
    It appears that the table you supplied to support your argument shows that Dunn in 9th in MLB for EBH and he is the 8th in this group of 14 names in RC/G

    By a quick scan of the runs/RBI leaders he is 21st in MLB(10th in the NL) in runs produced. That is not in an elite class, to me. ELite class would be in the top 10 in MLB for 3 years. It does put him in the NL league leaders, which is obviously a good thing and an accomplishment. I think Dunn can produce even more, based on the potential he has shown.

    I appreciate the table you put together but it did not support your argument that he is an elite run producer. I am sorry you wasted your time.

  7. #21
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    IMO Dunn's RBI's would have been higher had he not spend a huge amount of time batting behind Mr.DP Sean Casey.
    Go Gators!

  8. #22
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    I appreciate the table you put together but it did not support your argument that he is an elite run producer. I am sorry you wasted your time.
    RBI's?

    Now who's wasting their time?
    Best Reds under 25 in OPS vs the league in team history.

    Code:
     CINCINNATI REDS
    CAREER
    AGE <= 25
    AT BATS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    EXTRA BASE HITS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    OPS                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     AB       EBH     RC/G    
    1    Frank Robinson             .195     .946     .750     3286      158     2.99   
    2    Adam Dunn                  .131     .901     .771     2271       82     2.14   
    3    Bug Holliday               .126     .811     .684     2125       61     2.30   
    4    Johnny Bench               .104     .814     .710     3444      112     1.05   
    5    Vada Pinson                .100     .833     .734     3899      120     1.55   
    6    Dan Driessen               .058     .783     .725     1801       16     0.90   
    7    Pete Rose                  .044     .754     .711     2463        5     0.76   
    8    Doc Hoblitzell             .034     .727     .693     3172       26     0.35   
    9    Harry Steinfeldt           .006     .706     .700     2504       50     -.28   
    10   Tommy Harper              -.009     .703     .712     1947      -25     0.23

  9. #23
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    Code:
    Dunn Win Shares
    
    2001: 10
    2002: 21
    2003: 13
    2004: 32
    2005: 28
    
    Career WS/162: 25.49
    List of Hall of Fame 1B and/or LF that threw up a 24-27 win shares mark per 162 games: Carl Yastrzemski, Tim Raines (he'll make it), Willie Stargell, Billy Williams, Joe Medwick, Goose Goslin, Ralph Kiner, Zack Wheat, Harmon Killebrew and Willie McCovey

    I'd say those guys above were all pretty elite. Counting only 2004 and 2005, Dunn's averaged 30 win shares per 162 games. That list of hitters reaches legendary.
    My hope is that Dunn produce more runs - are win shares a calculation of how many runs Dunn produces?

  10. #24
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    RBI's?

    Now who's wasting their time?
    Best Reds under 25 in OPS vs the league in team history.

    Code:
     CINCINNATI REDS
    CAREER
    AGE <= 25
    AT BATS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    EXTRA BASE HITS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    OPS                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     AB       EBH     RC/G    
    1    Frank Robinson             .195     .946     .750     3286      158     2.99   
    2    Adam Dunn                  .131     .901     .771     2271       82     2.14   
    3    Bug Holliday               .126     .811     .684     2125       61     2.30   
    4    Johnny Bench               .104     .814     .710     3444      112     1.05   
    5    Vada Pinson                .100     .833     .734     3899      120     1.55   
    6    Dan Driessen               .058     .783     .725     1801       16     0.90   
    7    Pete Rose                  .044     .754     .711     2463        5     0.76   
    8    Doc Hoblitzell             .034     .727     .693     3172       26     0.35   
    9    Harry Steinfeldt           .006     .706     .700     2504       50     -.28   
    10   Tommy Harper              -.009     .703     .712     1947      -25     0.23
    You are assuming that I think that I am critisizing Dunn. I am not. I think he has not reached his runproducing potential. You are not providing any countering information. You're saying you think Dunn is good. Good for you. Guess what, I'm a Reds fan and I think he's good too.

  11. #25
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    No, I'm assuming you're using RBI's as a measuring device and in turn I'll contend that as a tool RBI's is the sort of thing that can make one dump Frank Robinson because you have Deron Johnson.

    But hey if you think Dunn needs to "step up" to make this team win then have at it.

  12. #26
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread
    My hope is that Dunn produce more runs - are win shares a calculation of how many runs Dunn produces?
    Win shares is a calculation of a player's total worth, including offensive run production. It is a tool that is far more accurate than the heavily teammate dependent RBI.
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  13. #27
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Both Milton Claussen and in the pen Wagner
    Pena,Kearns,Claussen and Wagner. Time for the young talent to jell.
    Am I missing something? The question is what one player...
    Can't win with 'em

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  14. #28
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    I think this is a make or break season from Kearns. This is the year that he either steps it up and becomes what some think he can be or proves that the one good half of baseball he played was an aberration not the norm
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  15. #29
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    Win shares is a calculation of a player's total worth, including offensive run production. It is a tool that is far more accurate than the heavily teammate dependent RBI.
    Runs produced are the sum of runs scored and runs batted in MINUS home runs (because they produce one run, not two).
    May I ask that people who wish to comment on a post, actually read the post, not merely extrapolate something else that they wish to discuss. Comprehension must come before analysis, otherwise the analysis comes across as didactic (if it is done with articulation -as your post was) or simply irrelevant (if it is done crudely).
    I do appreciate a discussion, its why I read the board and your points are very valuable, I will retain them (as much as my memory allows). Thanks for the info.

  16. #30
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the one player that needs to step up the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread
    My hope is that Dunn produce more runs - are win shares a calculation of how many runs Dunn produces?
    Unlike RBIs, Win Shares actually use the RC formula.

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread
    Runs produced are the sum of runs scored and runs batted in MINUS home runs (because they produce one run, not two).
    That's a decent way of figuring out how much a given player was involved in your team's offense, but it's a deployment metric more than a performance metric. I can tell you without hesitation that Dunn would have scored and driven in more runs had he spent the whole season in the #3 and #4 slots.

    Even so, Dunn's been over 160 two years in a row on that metric. You've got to go back to Dave Parker in 1985-86 to find the last Reds player to do that.

    Others who've done it since then:

    Eric Davis 1987
    Reggie Sanders 1995 (Larkin and Gant may have joined him had the club played a full season)
    Barry Larkin 1996
    Barry Larkin 1999
    Sean Casey 1999
    Greg Vaughn 1999
    Ken Griffey Jr. 2000
    Sean Casey 2004
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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