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Thread: Best Lineup projector

  1. #16
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44
    Lopez 7th?
    my thoughts exactly. this doesn't work.
    Go BLUE!!!

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  3. #17
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    I wouldn't Bob Boone it, but I'd vary things depending on the oponent's starting pitcher and the availability of their bullpen lefties.

    If it's a righty and their bullpen has rested, quality lefties.

    1. Freel
    2. Lopez
    3. Griffey
    4. Kearns
    5. Dunn
    6. Pena
    7. Encarnacion
    8. LaRue


    Righty and quality lefthanders are spent.

    1. Freel
    2. Lopez
    3. Griffey
    4. Dunn
    5. Kearns
    6. Pena
    7. Encarnacion
    8. LaRue


    Quality lefty starter

    1. Freel
    2. Lopez
    3. Griffey
    4. Kearns (hoping WMP matures into this spot)
    5. Dunn
    6. Pena
    7. Encarnacion
    8. LaRue
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  4. #18
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    Quote Originally Posted by gonelong
    I like that well enough ... I'd do this ...

    1. Freel 2B
    2. Lopez SS
    3. Dunn 1B
    4. Griffey CF
    5. Kearns RF
    6. Pena LF
    7. Encarnacion 3B
    8. Larue C
    9. Pitcher

    /edit - meant to remove Woe-is-the-team-who-starts-me-at-2B-mack. for a pitcher.

    I agree with you. I wonder why they like Kearns at #2? He strikes out a ton, has little speed and does not add the switch hitting ability that Lopez does. I like your lineup a lot. Of course as soon as we fall in love with a set lineup things happen and we read in Sept that "the Reds' projected starting lineup has played 8 games together." So it's fun off season fodder for us to throw around but thatr's all it is.

  5. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    I guess I'm of the mind that Lopez will regress slightly this year and Kearns breaks out. I expect something like:

    Kearns - .295/.370/.510
    Lopez - .270/.340/.465

    The speed difference means basically nothing. Lopez is not a great base runner and both are able to take the extra base. If anything though, I like having the faster guy low because there is less likelihood the batters behind him will drive him naturally.

    I think Kearns will show his power more and I'd rather have my power/obp higher in the order. I don't like the idea of two fast guys at the top of the order. If I'm maximizing run production, I want OBP/SLG to get the most at bats even if it doesn't fit some perfect small ball single-sb-bunt-sac fly opening.

  6. #20
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    I like EE, Kearns in the 2 spot because they will get stuff to hit..remember lineup order goes out the window after the first time through.
    Go Gators!

  7. #21
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    I like EE, Kearns in the 2 spot because they will get stuff to hit..remember lineup order goes out the window after the first time through.
    All the more reason to insert good base running guys (who can score from first on a double and go 1st to 3rd on a RF single) who are also good OBP guys (who can walk around the bases in front of home runs from the likes of Dunn, Griffey, Kearns, Pena, etc..

    From their "05 stats:

    1. Freel - .371 OBP
    2. Lopez - .352 OBP
    3. Dunn - .387 OBP and 1 HR every 13.57AB
    4. Griffey - 1 HR every 14.03 AB
    5. Kearns - 1 HR every 21.50 AB
    6. Pena - 1 HR every 16.37 AB
    7. Encarnacion - 1 HR every 23.44 AB
    8. LaRue - 1 HR every 25.79AB*

    * Note: Valentin - 1 HR every 15.79AB

    The numbers make Dunn look like the key. There's a gradual decrease in speed but increase in power at the top of the order from Freel to Lopez to Dunn, followed by a decrease in both speed and power from Dunn to Griffey to Kearns. If you flip-flop Pena with Kearns, then the power/speed inverse relationship continues virtually from #3 to # 8 in the lineup. Either way Dunn, with his foot speed (relative to teammates), OBP, and power is at the heart of the transition in the lineup. Of course it would take some trial and error or a heck of a back-testing technology to ascertain whether or not such a batting order scores more runs.

    Managing this lineup would be contingent upon the success of the table-setters. If they get on, some Red may lead the league in RBI. If they don't get on, the chance for a Red solo HR is greatest in the person of Dunn and decreases by degree with each successive spot in the order -- noting the dilemma about Kearns/Pena at the #5 or #6 spots.

  8. #22
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    The point of this exercise was not to put the best lineup together based on last years numbers. It used a PROJECTION of 2006 numbers to make all of the recommendation. It thinks that in 2006, Kearns will be a better fit in the 2nd spot than Lopez.

    If Lopez repeats his season, I think he's a wonderful fit at #2. I just don't think we see a repeat performance, and neither did that projection system.

  9. #23
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    I'd love to see Dunn 3rd, Griff 4th and Kearnsy 5th, with freel and lopez 1 and 2.

    that means womack is on the bench with RA

  10. #24
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    I like EE, Kearns in the 2 spot because they will get stuff to hit..remember lineup order goes out the window after the first time through.
    I disagree on both counts. The lineup is important for most of the game. Until pinch hitters and double switches, etc are used it is important. In other words the #1 and #2 hitters will always hit in front of the #3 hitter...ditto for the #4 hitter etc, etc. Sure, sometimes various hitters will lead off an inning but the setup concept remains the same.

    Kearns and EE both strike out way too much to hit #2. If they cut down on their strike outs I could go along with them at #2 but I've seen very little progress in that area from any Reds' player in recent years...

  11. #25
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    Lopez k's quite a lot as well.

    As for the lineup the 1&2 guys may always be in front of number 3, but they may also be hitting with guys in base, along with being the 3rd out leading to 3-5 guys leading off.
    Go Gators!

  12. #26
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray
    Kearns and EE both strike out way too much to hit #2. If they cut down on their strike outs I could go along with them at #2 but I've seen very little progress in that area from any Reds' player in recent years...

    Better to K in the 2 slot then GIDP in the 2 slot.

    As long as a guy is OBPing 350+ in the 2 slot, I could care how he makes an out as long as it's not a DP.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  13. #27
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Lopez k's quite a lot as well.

    As for the lineup the 1&2 guys may always be in front of number 3, but they may also be hitting with guys in base, along with being the 3rd out leading to 3-5 guys leading off.
    Another reason for then having Dunn -- decent on the basepaths & great OBP -- batting and thus 3rd to lead off such an inning as you're describing and to precede Junior, who with similar (but not quite so good as Adam's) relative foot speed and OBP precedes Kearns.

  14. #28
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    Better to K in the 2 slot then GIDP in the 2 slot.

    As long as a guy is OBPing 350+ in the 2 slot, I could care how he makes an out as long as it's not a DP.
    In that respect our lineup should be improved with league leading DP guy (Casey) gone, but I don't want a 100 strike out guy in the #2 slot either.

  15. #29
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray
    In that respect our lineup should be improved with league leading DP guy (Casey) gone, but I don't want a 100 strike out guy in the #2 slot either.
    Meh. In 2005, Boston and Cincinnati led their respective leagues in Runs Scored with their 100-K Shortstops (Renteria, Lopez) routinely hitting in the #2 slots in the lineup.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  16. #30
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Best Lineup projector

    K's are just another out.

    Go Gators!


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