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Thread: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

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  1. #1
    Member SidneySlicker's Avatar
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    Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    It would be ridiculous to trade either of them in spring training, when you're going to get nothing more than a minor league prospect(s) for them. You buy low and trade high. Neither of these players have proven that they will live up to their potential over a whole season. Why not give them the chance to play everyday prove their worth to your own team, and other teams as well. Yes, there is a chance that they could have horrible seasons, however I don't buy that their value will lower much from what it is now. They will only be one year older and still be viewed as players with potential that has been untapped. I think Kearns and Willy Mo will have solid years (if they are able to avoid injuries). I believe the risk/reward is greater giving them a season of starting for this team. The only way I do trade one of them is if they become malcontent, which shouldn't really be a problem if they are both getting consistent starts.
    Last edited by SidneySlicker; 02-24-2006 at 09:12 AM.

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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by SidneySlicker
    It would be ridiculous to trade either of them in spring training, when you're going to get nothing more than a minor league prospect(s) for them. You buy low and trade high. Neither of these players have proven that they will live up to their potential over a whole season. Why not give them the chance to play everyday prove their worth to your own team, and other teams as well. Yes, there is a chance that they could have horrible seasons, however I don't buy that their value will lower much from what it is now. They will only be one year older and still be viewed as players with potential that has been untapped. I think Kearns and Willy Mo will have solid years (if they are able to avoid injuries). I believe the risk/reward is greater giving them a season of starting for this team. The only way I do trade one of them is if they become malcontent, which shouldn't really be a problem if they are both getting consistent starts.
    Have you seen the starting rotation the past couple of seasons? We could keep Kearns and Willy Mo and still finish under .500. The only way to fix it is deal an outfielder for a pitcher or pitchers that can upgrade the staff.

    It is up to Krivsky to fix that problem. Until then keeping Kearns and Willy Mo isn't going to make this team a contender.
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Are we one starter away from a decent season? With a fairly potent offense, could we be over .500 if we added on good starting pitcher. I look for improvement out of most of our guys.

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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Because Kearns has had the Potential tag for several years, when is he going to loose that tag and live up to some of it? This is his last chance, IMO to be something more than potential. Many people will be willing to trade a SP or SP ready "With Potential" right now. If Kearns flops again, we will be lucky to get a Casey type deal done. And if he does bust out, why would we want to trade him? And as far as Pena goes, he better learn to lay off breaking pitches and play some defense. He's been playing the OF for 7 years now, how long do you need to learn to play a position? He is a little younger, so I would give him one more year to see if he can adjust, otherwise he'll never be anything more than a fast ball hitting, horrible defense playing OF.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    I'm pretty sure nobody wants to deal one of them just to deal them. However, we also realize that the staff needs an infusion of talent and we have OF depth. If somebody is willing to give us a pitcher with similar upside to one of those guys (ie. all-star potential), it would have to be strongly considered.

  6. #6
    Member SidneySlicker's Avatar
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Let me ask you this then. What are the chances that we can get a #1 or 2 starter (with mlb experience) for Kearns or Willy Mo right now? I'd say none. What's the point in adding more 3 through 5's (with mlb experience) to this team, or one or two minor league prospect that may never see their potential or the big leagues. I don't think they can get a #1 or 2 for them right now. Now if one of them has a breakout season and bats .310 with 30hr's and 100rbi's, I think their trade value significantly increases. Like I said I think the risk reward right now is greater with Kearns and Willy Mo playing full seasons with the Reds.

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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by SidneySlicker
    Let me ask you this then. What are the chances that we can get a #1 or 2 starter (with mlb experience) for Kearns or Willy Mo right now? I'd say none. What's the point in adding more 3 through 5's (with mlb experience) to this team, or one or two minor league prospect that may never see their potential or the big leagues. I don't think they can get a #1 or 2 for them right now. Now if one of them has a breakout season and bats .310 with 30hr's and 100rbi's, I think their trade value significantly increases. Like I said I think the risk reward right now is greater with Kearns and Willy Mo playing full seasons with the Reds.
    Well, the Reds could have had RHP Jake Westbrook from the Indians for Kearns and the Reds turned that down. IMO, I don't think Westbrook is that bad and he is a sinkerball pitcher which would be suited for the Reds. So, I would revisited Kearns trade talks with Cleveland but if I was Krivsky, I would shoot for Sabbathia, even if it means spicing up the deal.

    You add Sabbathia to go with Harang and Claussen and you have a solid three. As for the fourth and fifth starters, if Wilson and Milton could rebound that would be great. But then you have several young arms you can look at.
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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    Well, the Reds could have had RHP Jake Westbrook from the Indians for Kearns and the Reds turned that down. IMO, I don't think Westbrook is that bad and he is a sinkerball pitcher which would be suited for the Reds. So, I would revisited Kearns trade talks with Cleveland but if I was Krivsky, I would shoot for Sabbathia, even if it means spicing up the deal.

    You add Sabbathia to go with Harang and Claussen and you have a solid three. As for the fourth and fifth starters, if Wilson and Milton could rebound that would be great. But then you have several young arms you can look at.
    That is who I see as the target arm if I'm trading with the Indians as well. Westbrook, blech, reminds me too much of Paul Wilson.
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    Well, the Reds could have had RHP Jake Westbrook from the Indians for Kearns and the Reds turned that down. IMO, I don't think Westbrook is that bad and he is a sinkerball pitcher which would be suited for the Reds.
    trading their OF surplus for expensive(Westbrook, Clements, etc) average or slightly above starters is no way to build a winner. They need to focus on young guys so the Reds can take advantage of their cheap years. A guy like Harang is going to get expensive next year and i Claussen develops is not far behind. They need to figure out how to get a Liriano type pitcher from somebody(like the Twins did from the Giants) instead of trading for a 30ish expensive average pitcher. I think a guy like Belisle(serious GB pitcher) is a better bet than trading for a Westbrook.
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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    trading their OF surplus for expensive(Westbrook, Clements, etc) average or slightly above starters is no way to build a winner. They need to focus on young guys so the Reds can take advantage of their cheap years. A guy like Harang is going to get expensive next year and i Claussen develops is not far behind. They need to figure out how to get a Liriano type pitcher from somebody(like the Twins did from the Giants) instead of trading for a 30ish expensive average pitcher. I think a guy like Belisle(serious GB pitcher) is a better bet than trading for a Westbrook.
    But that strategy worked so well the last few years
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  11. #11
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    But that strategy worked so well the last few years
    ... DanO just wasn't given enought time.
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    trading their OF surplus for expensive(Westbrook, Clements, etc) average or slightly above starters is no way to build a winner. They need to focus on young guys so the Reds can take advantage of their cheap years. A guy like Harang is going to get expensive next year and i Claussen develops is not far behind. They need to figure out how to get a Liriano type pitcher from somebody(like the Twins did from the Giants) instead of trading for a 30ish expensive average pitcher. I think a guy like Belisle(serious GB pitcher) is a better bet than trading for a Westbrook.

    Well if Krivsky could pry RHPs Chad Billingsley and John Broxton from the Dodgers, I would rank that right up there with the trade the Twins did with the Giants.

    But if you want both of these highly regarded pitching arms, I think the Dodgers would want Dunn in return.
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  13. #13
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    Well if Krivsky could pry RHPs Chad Billingsley and John Broxton from the Dodgers, I would rank that right up there with the trade the Twins did with the Giants.

    But if you want both of these highly regarded pitching arms, I think the Dodgers would want Dunn in return.
    which means you wait. There are no simple answers. BTW, I wouldn't trade Dunn for Billingsley and Broxton.

    See the BP article dealing with pitching prospects
    http://www.baseball-analysis.com/art...articleid=4796

    Trading a proven valuable commidity for minor league pitching prospects is just getting a chance to roll the dice at the craps table.

    In the end, the Reds are likely to have to wait for the development of the likes Belisle, Germano, Gardner, Wood, Bailey, etc.

    As Archie Bunker would say "patience is a virgin".
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    Well, the Reds could have had RHP Jake Westbrook from the Indians for Kearns and the Reds turned that down. IMO, I don't think Westbrook is that bad and he is a sinkerball pitcher which would be suited for the Reds. So, I would revisited Kearns trade talks with Cleveland but if I was Krivsky, I would shoot for Sabbathia, even if it means spicing up the deal.

    You add Sabbathia to go with Harang and Claussen and you have a solid three. As for the fourth and fifth starters, if Wilson and Milton could rebound that would be great. But then you have several young arms you can look at.

    Well put.

    Harang and Claussen are realistically our only 2 starting options around which to build, and we do have a plethora of OF, so someone literally will be the odd man out. Griffey has to OK trades, and I would assume that he would only OK a trade to someone that has a high chance of winning a title. Hopefully we didn't re-up Dunn to sign and trade him, so we'll take him out of the equation. That leaves us with a collection of Kearns/Pena/Denorfia/Rhodes/McCracken/Cruz/Freel/fill in the blank. Bottomline, too many cooks in the kitchen. I've always been a fan of Westbrook, and Sabathia is a solid arm as well, so either would be great to add with Harang and Claussen and then if we had the stones go ahead and just go with a 4 man rotation, so we'd be looking at Harang/Claussen/Westbrook/4th.

    Let's thanks Aaron Boone for leaving town and Brandon Claussen taking his place. Let's thank Jose Guillen for leaving town and Aaron Harang taking his place. It's a simple formula we've established: trade away something at the deadline for something that can help us in 2 years.

  15. #15
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Why is everyone so ready to trade Kearns or Willy Mo?

    Quote Originally Posted by SidneySlicker
    Let me ask you this then. What are the chances that we can get a #1 or 2 starter (with mlb experience) for Kearns or Willy Mo right now? I'd say none.
    Truth is, even if Kearns and Pena bust out this season you may not be able to get a#1-2 type of pitcher with major league experience for them.

    Think about who's trading for these types of guys (seven figure salaries, immediate pop for the lineup). In most cases it will be a contender and contenders aren't trading those types of pitchers.

    It is possible a struggling club might want one to build around and that such a club might be willing to trade an experienced pitcher for that. Though the pitcher likely would be available because he's making, or on the cusp of making, a decent chunk of money. Kearns or Pena may prove too rich for such a team's blood. Also, Kearns only has the 2006 and 2007 seasons before he hits free agency. If the Reds wait to trade him until next offseason, he's not going to be a guy around whom a struggling club can build. Instead he'll be a one-year patch.

    Ultimately the Reds are looking at some combination of quality prospects and/or guys with major league experience who haven't put it all together yet when the they make that vaunted OF-for-pitching deal.
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