People want a quick fix and there just isn't such a thing in baseball. You build your team and farm systems pitching through the draft and by trading topshelf players (something Kearns and Pena at this time are not), not by trading young players who have had injury problems and hit .250 or .269 for their career.
Originally Posted by flyer85
Well if Krivsky could pry RHPs Chad Billingsley and John Broxton from the Dodgers, I would rank that right up there with the trade the Twins did with the Giants.
But if you want both of these highly regarded pitching arms, I think the Dodgers would want Dunn in return.
If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.
Just look how Billy Beane does it in Oakland and you get the hint. You have to have a strong farm system but at the same time you need to wheel and deal at the major league level. Beane trades Hudson and Mulder for younger arms but at the same time he trades for veteran LHP Joe Kennedy and signs RHP Estaban Loaiza as a free agent. He brings in veterans like Jay Payton, Jason Kendall, Milton Bradley and Kotsay but at the same time has parted with Tejeda, Giambi and others.
It is all about knowing how to wheel and deal at the major league level and at the same time building through the farm system.......which former Reds GM Dan O'Brien was deficient at.
If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.
which means you wait. There are no simple answers. BTW, I wouldn't trade Dunn for Billingsley and Broxton.
See the BP article dealing with pitching prospects
http://www.baseball-analysis.com/art...articleid=4796
Trading a proven valuable commidity for minor league pitching prospects is just getting a chance to roll the dice at the craps table.
In the end, the Reds are likely to have to wait for the development of the likes Belisle, Germano, Gardner, Wood, Bailey, etc.
As Archie Bunker would say "patience is a virgin".
Agreed and I would add that you have to look at what you have to deal. Oakland had brought players through there farm system initially that turned into star players such as Hudson, Moulder, Tejada, etc. They bought cheap and sold high. It is absolutely imperative that the Reds have a string of successful drafts and quality teaching of those players so that you can one day trade those elite players to help restock your team. This is why there is no quick fix it takes years to build up your farm system.
Truth is, even if Kearns and Pena bust out this season you may not be able to get a#1-2 type of pitcher with major league experience for them.
Think about who's trading for these types of guys (seven figure salaries, immediate pop for the lineup). In most cases it will be a contender and contenders aren't trading those types of pitchers.
It is possible a struggling club might want one to build around and that such a club might be willing to trade an experienced pitcher for that. Though the pitcher likely would be available because he's making, or on the cusp of making, a decent chunk of money. Kearns or Pena may prove too rich for such a team's blood. Also, Kearns only has the 2006 and 2007 seasons before he hits free agency. If the Reds wait to trade him until next offseason, he's not going to be a guy around whom a struggling club can build. Instead he'll be a one-year patch.
Ultimately the Reds are looking at some combination of quality prospects and/or guys with major league experience who haven't put it all together yet when the they make that vaunted OF-for-pitching deal.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
The Reds should have their farm system stocked by now after 5 straight losing seasons. That means their fair share of top 10 picks in each round, yet the farm system is barren. And folks wonder why the fans who have been following these developments closely are skeptical and bitter with a new regime. Of course, it took six years for Krivsky's mentor to turn the Twins into what they are now, and they went through 8 straight losing seasons before that, so hopefully we don't have to endure that, but it is possible.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
I wouldn't give up Dunn and Kearns for much at this point.
You are right they may never be worth a #1 or 2 starter in fact there aren't alot of players out there that would bright that in return. Like I said before it's all risk reward.
Keeping them
Risk- I'd say is very minimal. There isn't much I believe they can do to decrease their value to the Reds or another team.
Reward- you might find you have a player you will keep around that could turn into a solid or very good player. This in-turn increases trade value for what you currently get for them.
Trading them
Risk- You get a prospect or two who may never turn into a quality major league player.
Reward- You may get lucky and find a diamond in the rough and get a guy that will be a very good or solid mlb player.
To me the risk involved in trading them at this time is greater than what it would be to keep them. Buy low, trade high.
Though there is the additional risk of not addressing an epidemic pitching problem that you can't fix with what you've got on hand inside the organization.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
My point is what you would get in return for either player right now is minimal. If they can play and increase their value you will get more for them.
My thing is, this isn't the NFL.
all the Reds would need to do to get quality pitching is... (drumroll) pay for it.
But we are a small market team. That means the GM has to play this game on "expert level," which better than the Devil Rays ("poitless level") I guess.
If it takes 8 years or however long, its only because of our salary cap handicap.
"Its easy to love a winner like LeafGuard." -Marty Brennaman commenting on the Reds pitching staff.
Theoretically, but that's assuming they will play better. IMO, you trade them when you can get a return you like for them. Though few teams that lack offensive skills seem capable of projecting talent. If they were, they'd be able to land Kearns or Pena for 60-70 cents on the dollar, still providing the Reds with a decent return, but saving themselves the expense of trading for guys like these after they've popped.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Using their age as an idicator there is certainly a strong probablility that they will in the next year or two.
My fear is Kearns will have another injury-plagued season and his value will be rock bottom. As I said before, he hasn't been the same since Ray King sat on his shoulder.
If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.
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