Quote Originally Posted by traderumor

No one is trying to suck your fun out of being a fan. But it is funny to watch someone go on and on about how bad a pick this was but then say "I'm not an expert" in the same breath. It isn't about no armchair QBing allowed here, but at some point it is healthy to admit that perhaps, perhaps, the folks that have done a little (ok a lot) more legwork than reading publications and done went and made a draft pick that didn't fit inside some neat little "moneyball pick" box (which just like in high school, when all the non-conformists dressed alike ) might find an exception to a rule. Or they may be the same devil we just got rid of.
I think we're at that point of both of us saying virtually the same thing every post using different words. You keep talking about how the guys making the decision have done a lot more legwork and have experience doing this. I come back saying they had the same experience and did the same amount of legwork when they drafted Gruler and Howington, etc... You come back with perhaps they see something different. I respond by agreeing that it's possibility, but not one I'd be willing to give $2 - $3MM to. You find it funny that a non-expert feels so strongly about this. I find it funny that folks can give their loyal nod of approval simply because "experts" must know what they're doing. And so on a so forth.

But just so we can agree on something, I will gladly cede the point that "perhaps, perhaps" Bailey will develop into everything these scouts thought he could be. It might sound like I'm arguing against that point, but I never meant to. I sure hope he turns into a perennial 20 game winner, and it's possible he will. But we're both aware of the odds. Can we agree on that?

One last thing, my opinion on this matter was formed long before the release of Moneyball. Moneyball has nothing to do with my opinions on drafting high school pitchers. Henceforth, anyone saying the belief against drafting high school pitchers in the first round with large signing bonuses attached is based on Moneyball will be slapped with a large trout.