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Thread: 2004 Draft thread

  1. #61
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19
    I agree on a strategy to make the best decision to move forward.

    But you ignore recent history at your own peril.

    4 of the last 8 picks the Reds have made in the first round have been HS arms.

    Not a single one of those picks have yet to throw an inning above AA ball for the Reds.

    Something to think about.
    Wait..... I agree with you. I don't believe a team as poor in the pitching department as the Reds need to go with high leverage what-ifs over lower risk players who are ahead in age, development and body growth.

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  3. #62
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Weaver to the Cardinals?

  4. #63
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    Wait..... I agree with you. I don't believe a team as poor in the pitching department as the Reds need to go with high leverage what-ifs over lower risk players who are ahead in age, development and body growth.
    In the end, it's all a crapshoot anyway.

    I say we just put all the players names in a hat and let each team pull out a slip of paper. You'd have about the same amount of luck.

  5. #64
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    How many people stayed home from work for this?

    I did.

    That, and yesterday's game and subsequent sunburn.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  6. #65
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19
    In the end, it's all a crapshoot anyway.

    I say we just put all the players names in a hat and let each team pull out a slip of paper. You'd have about the same amount of luck.
    Good point. While I had problems with many of their drafts, the Bengals are a prime example of this. The years they drafted wilkinson and carter, those were no-brainer picks that anybody else in the league would have likely taken in that situation. We all know how those turned out. Add to that the fact that the MLB draft is even more nebulous than the NFL draft and it really does look like a crapshoot.

  7. #66
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19
    In the end, it's all a crapshoot anyway
    IMO it's a card game, the odds shift in favor to those who can count the cards that have come up in the past and factor that in when the game starts at their table.

    Scouts are the guys that find the games with the bigger payoff.

  8. #67
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    CNNSI's Mike Fish

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ras/index.html

    Old guard baseball owners cringe at the mere mention of ex-union boss Marvin Miller. Well, the Lords of the Realm have similar antipathy for Scott Boras, too, especially when the amateur draft rolls around every June.

    Some have dubbed Boras "baseball's most hated man.'' Forget that he has negotiated mega-million dollar deals for Alex Rodriguez and a galaxy of major league stars. What bugs baseball's bean counters most is the way Boras has used holdouts and stints in semipro ball to wreack havoc with the draft system and engineer a huge spike in signing bonuses.

    As the amateur draft begins Monday, Boras again will be a major player, serving as the "advisor'' to a handful of top draftees, including Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew and Long Beach State right-hander Jered Weaver -- both of whom have been mentioned as the possible No. 1 overall pick by San Diego. Clubs already know they'll have to play hardball if they draft either, with Boras boldly suggesting the 6-foot-7 Weaver is one of those rare, ready-for-the-majors draftees who should be treated as a free-agent.

    Boras' representation often has prompted teams to steer clear of his clients in the draft. It will be interesting to see if that is the case again with Drew and Weaver.

    "It is a factor because of what it is going to take [to sign a draft pick], and obviously the track record of his clients being willing to sit out,'' said Kansas City Royals general manager Allard Baird.

    Whether they appreciate his tactics, most baseball executives respect that Boras does his homework and routinely aligns himself with top players. Boras typically has no more than a handful of players in a draft. And as for impact, his firm claims that from 1983-98 all 29 of the college players represented made it to the majors as well as 19 of 24 clients drafted out of high school.

    Scott Chiamparino, a top Boras assistant, rattles off a string of firsts and mind-numbing dollar figures: more than 50 first-round picks; the first $1 million player in the draft [Ben McDonald]; more than $100 million in draft contracts.

    The firm's attention to detail hasn't gone unnoticed by the Commissioner's office. Boras has worked out a remedy with baseball for paragraph 17-B of the standard minor-league player contract for his clients -- which is prime evidence of why young athletes need a trained hand. The fine print in the clause permits clubs to terminate the contract within 90 days -- and retrieve their signing bonus in full -- as a result of a defect uncovered in physical, psychiatric, psychological and/or dental examination.

    "Yeah, he's done good for the players,'' an American League club official said. "If I were a player I'd get him.''

    So why is Boras considered such a thorn in baseball's side? Because he ruined a good thing. By instituting the amateur draft in 1965, the owners kept themselves from bidding up the value of top prospects. Draft picks had no representation from the union and a scant few had an agent/advisor until Boras entered the picture in the early 1980s.

    Rick Reichart landed a $205,000 signing bonus from the California Angels in 1964, the last year before the draft. Yet it remained the fattest contract until the Mets signed Darryl Strawberry for $210,000 in 1980.

    Not long after, Boras came along jabbing at the system and advising players to reject deals. When the Mariners refused to meet catcher Jason Varitek's asking price in 1994, the first-round pick played with the St. Paul Saints of the independent Northern League until the Mariners came around with a better offer. In 1997, Boras told first-round pick J.D. Drew to reject a $3 million offer from the Phillies. After a year in semi-pro ball, Drew re-entered the draft and bagged an $8 million deal from the Cardinals.

    "People say what we're doing is holding out when in reality the teams are trying to crush the draft market because they don't want to pay fair market value,'' Boras argues.

    It's this in-your-face attitude coupled with innovative maneuvering that burns scouts and makes Boras a hated name in some circles, especially when you consider the average signing bonus for last year's first-round picks topped $1.75 million.

    "You're going to hear everything people write, saying you're going to drop in the draft and this and that,'' said J.D. Drew, recalling his controversial holdout. "You hear, 'Hey, this guy is this and that.' But Scott understands that he's going to have to be the bad guy sometimes, and he takes a lot of the heat.''

    Boras claims the bad-mouthing by clubs, specifically local scouts, is actionable and, at its height in the mid-1990s, cost his firm clients.

    "We could file a lawsuit against major league teams,'' Boras contends. "Every year these local scouts come in and say, 'This Boras is a bad guy. He's money hungry.' The traditional scout wants the guy to sign right away, get him going.''

    Until the kid signs, Boras is nothing more than an advisor, holding the family's hand as it negotiates with the club. The tactic is used to circumvent an NCAA rule that costs an athlete his eligibility for signing with an agent, which is an important distinction since most draftees are either high school seniors or college juniors.

    Boras says teenage prospects shouldn't even be messing with pro ball unless they're A-Rod. Or unless clubs are willing to guarantee the kid's future.

    "I don't think high school players should be drafted unless clubs are required to pay the guys over $5 million,'' said Boras, without a hint of laughter. "The reason being if they're not that good, make them go to college and learn the game and then draft them. But if you draft a high school player you have to guarantee his future. And if the player is not that good the team won't take the risk. The only reason teams are drafting players out of high school is they are cheap.''

    Only not as cheap as they used to be.

  9. #68
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Under an hour to go...

  10. #69
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    IMO it's a card game.
    batter versus pitcher. Hit .300 and you could lead the league. Slug .550 and you're a star

  11. #70
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    M2,
    3 out of the last 5? Disagree -- what I said was that when you have a shot at the top HS arm in the draft, you have to consider it seriously. I'll give you Gruler. But Howington was not the #1 HS arm, nor was Sowers (and we all know the Reds had NO intention of signing whoever they chose that year).
    Hey, I'm for drafting Sowers or Nelson. But bottom line is I'm against coming out staunchly opposed to the #1 HS arm in the country. The thinking is too rigid, in my opinion.
    Well, they had to have Howington in their top four HS arms in 1999, probably top three as the Expos took a reach with Josh Girdley. Sowers would have had to be top six, but I'd hazard a guess that they liked him better than Kris Honel and Dan Denham, possibly as much as Mike Jones and Colt Griffin.

    And here's a list of the top HS arm taken in every draft of the '90s:

    1999 - Josh Beckett
    1998 - J.M. Gold
    1997 - Geoff Goetz
    1996 - John Patterson
    1995 - Kerry Wood
    1994 - Doug Million
    1993 - Kirk Presley
    1992 - Jim Pittsley
    1991 - Brien Taylor
    1990 - Kurt Miller

    Important to remember that Becket, Wood and Taylor were considered extraordinary arms, far better than just the average top HS arm on the board. Homer Bailey hasn't been given that kind of pedigree. In fact, he may not ever be the first HS pitcher selected (unthinkable in the cases of Beckett, Wood and Taylor).


    Quote Originally Posted by WVRed
    We didnt have an inconsistent drafting sociopath as a GM either. We picked one high school arm(Chris Gruler) over the top lefty prospect in the Mets organization.(Scott Kazmir).

    I understand the prospect of college arms helping sooner rather than later, but thats not necessarily the case. Most of the top pitching prospects or current pitchers in the game are high schoolers(see lollipopcurves list).

    Best example-The Pirates wanted a college arm with the first overall pick in 2002. They took Bryan Bullington, who wasnt rated near as well as some of the other picks. Bullington may be 4th on the Pirates farm system, while two of the other picks(BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir) are top 25 prospects in baseball.
    First off, Bowden gave his scouting directors a lot of leeway. Second, a bad idea is still a bad idea no matter who had it.

    As for the 2002 draft, Kazmir's currently banged up and struggling (6.23 ERa in High A). Bullington been coming around in AA, 3.93 ERA. The other top two college arms from that draft were Jeff Francis (2.12 ERA in AA and probably the best pitcher in the minors right now) and Bobby Brownlie (3.12 ERA in AA). Of course you've touched upon a larger point here. Forget about the HS vs. college arm debate if a guy like B.J. Upton's on the board. One might be for the Reds. His name is Chris Nelson. That's the pick you make if you want to banish risk from the equation.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  12. #71
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    2004 MLB Draft Blog
    By the Staff of Baseball America
    June 7, 2004

    There's no bigger days in the Baseball America year than draft days, and this year we bring you our annual Draft Blog. Whenever one of our draft experts has a tidbit of information, a piece of analysis or an impression of something from the draft, you'll find it here.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Monday
    11:35 AM ET: Monday Morning Rumor Dept.
    As the baseball world continues to ponder where Jered Weaver might fall, the Cardinals may be the best first-round possibility. They've gotten deals done with Scott Boras draft picks in the past, including another guy who had a rumored eight-figure price tag, J.D. Drew.
    -- Jim Callis

    11:00 AM ET: Where In The World Is Jered Weaver Going?
    That is the $10.5 million question. No team is claiming him as a possible first-round pick, and there's no sense that a club is lying in the weeds on him. He and adviser Scott Boras don't seem to be backing down from a reported desire for Mark Prior money, and he could slide through the entire first round altogether.
    -- Jim Callis

  13. #72
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Link for the draft blog at Baseball America

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today.../2004blog.html

  14. #73
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    M2 i've never heard that Nelson is even close to Upton. I'm not discounting you at all, just wondering why you feel that way? Thanks.

  15. #74
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    BA REPORT ON NELSON

    Scouting Report:Indians infielder Brandon Phillips also went to Redan High, but Nelson is more frequently compared with such shortstops as Derek Jeter and B.J. Upton. While Nelson isn't tall and rangy in the new shortstop mold, he has athletic ability to spare, which is why he's expected to be drafted in the first 10 picks overall and ranked first on at least one team's draft board. Nelson's best tool is his arm, even though he had Tommy John surgery in the fall. He's made a full recovery and has shelved his low-90s fastball for good. Smooth and easy at shortstop, Nelson has fluid infield actions, plenty of range and good baseball savvy. He may be the first high school player picked, though, because he has a polished bat. He has a short, compact swing, makes consistent contact and has solid bat speed. He hit .582-8-36 this spring. Along with his strong frame, the package has scouts projecting him to hit for average power down the road. It's an enticing total package when Nelson's plus-plus makeup is added in.

  16. #75
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    If he is close to Upton then i'm all for it. I've never seen the kid play obviously, but that would do it for me.


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