It's been a good discussion, but i think i'm going to call a cease fire here and bow out.
It's been a good discussion, but i think i'm going to call a cease fire here and bow out.
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
Good chatting MWM, you are a very smart man.
Seems like last year's thread was filled with optimistic talk about Wagner, Rondo, Lewis, Cornell, D'alessio, Pauley, Dixon etc. Some tested, experienced arms and a few nice high ceiling HS bats. This years has been primarily a debate on college vs HS pitchers. Ignoring that tired discussion, there is not much excitement over the post round 1 draftees and I think that is telling. Last year they selected several high ceiling flyers whom the questions lay in whether they would go to college or a thumb would heal. This year, the high ceiling picks were more troubled kids than college bound and the college bats do not seem much different than the Bassetts, junior Ruiz and Williamson picks of previous drafts.
I am very underwhelmed. Just when they seemed to get it (last year), we get more of the same.
Given all the arguments about the Reds failure to draft an arm who can help in the next 1-2 years...
I've argued statistically only 5-8 #1/#2 rotation guys will emerge a year across all of baseball. Maybe 1-3 guys a year emerge from round 1 that fit the top of the rotation billing. The rest come from later round picks and overseas.
Can someone list the "impact" college pitchers from Round 1 drafted from '00-'02? Other than Prior (surefire ace and obvious #1 choice). After a quick glance at a couple of the years I see almost no contributors (let alone significant contributors) from the college pitching ranks even 3-4 years later that have emerged. This despite a huge number of college arms taken in round one. Note: not many HS'ers fit the bill either but probably need to look at the '97-'99 draft to see the fallout...
History says an immediate impact within 2-3 years is basically a long shot for even the first rounders. Even for college pitching (minus consensus can't misses like Prior and Mulder)
2000 Draft (Round 1)
1 Florida Adrian Gonzalez 1B Eastlake HS (Bonita, Calif.)
2 Minnesota Adam Johnson RHP Cal State Fullerton
3 Chicago (NL) Luis Montanez SS Miami (Fla) Coral Park HS
4 Kansas City Michael Stodolka LHP Centennial HS (Corona, Calif.)
5 Montreal Justin Wayne RHP Stanford
6 Tampa Bay Rocco Baldelli CF Bishop Hendricken School (Cumberland, R.I.)
7 Colorado Matthew Harrington RHP Palmdale (Calif.) HS
8 Detroit Matthew Wheatland RHP Rancho Bernardo HS (Poway, Calif.)
9 San Diego Mark Phillips LHP Hanover (Pa.) HS
10 Anaheim Joseph Torres LHP Gateway HS (Kissimmee, Fla.)
11 Milwaukee David Krynzel CF Green Valley HS (Henderson, Nev.)
12 Chicago (AL) Joseph Borchard RF Stanford
13 St. Louis Shaun Boyd 2B Vista HS (Pala, Calif.)
14 Baltimore Beau Hale RHP Texas
15 Philadelphia Chase Utley 2B UCLA
16 New York (NL) William Traber LHP Loyola Marymount
17 Los Angeles Benjamin Diggins RHP Arizona
18 Toronto Miguel Negron CF Manuela Toro HS (Caguas, P.R.)
19 Pittsburgh Sean Burnett LHP Wellington (Fla.) Community HS
20 Anaheim Christopher Bootchec RHP Auburn
21 San Francisco John Bonser RHP Gibbs Senior HS (Pinellas Park, Fla.)
22 Boston Phillip Dumatrait LHP Bakersfield College
23 Cincinnati David Espinosa SS Gulliver Preparatory (Miami)
24 St. Louis Blake Williams RHP Southwest Texas State
25 Texas Scott Heard C Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego)
26 Cleveland Corey Smith SS Piscataway (N.J.) HS
27 Houston Robert Stiehl C El Camino College
28 New York (AL) David Parrish C Michigan
29 Atlanta Adam Wainwright RHP Glynn Academy (St. Simons, Ga.)
30 Atlanta Scott Thorman 3B Preston HS (Cambridge, Conn.)
2001 1st Round
1. Minnesota -- Joe Mauer, c, Cretin-Derham Hall HS, St. Paul, Minn.
2. Chicago (NL) -- Mark Prior, rhp, Southern California
3. Tampa Bay -- Dewon Brazelton, rhp, Middle Tennessee State
4. Philadelphia -- Gavin Floyd, rhp, Mt. St. Joseph HS, Severna Park, Md.
5. Texas -- Mark Teixeira, 3b, Georgia Tech
6. Montreal -- Josh Karp, rhp, UCLA
7. Baltimore -- Chris Smith, lhp, Cumberland (Tenn.) University
8. Pittsburgh -- John VanBenschoten, 1b, Kent State
9. Kansas City -- Colt Griffin, rhp, Marshall HS, Marshall, Texas
10. Houston -- Chris Burke, ss, Tennessee
11. Detroit -- Kenny Baugh, rhp, Rice
12. Milwaukee -- Mike Jones, rhp, Thunderbird HS, Phoenix
13. Anaheim -- Casey Kotchman, 1b, Seminole HS, Seminole, Fla.
14. San Diego -- Jake Gautreau, 3b, Tulane
15. Toronto -- Gabe Gross, of, Auburn University
16. Chicago (AL) (from Florida) -- Kris Honel, rhp, Providence Catholic HS, New Lenox, Ill.
17. Cleveland (from Boston) -- Dan Denham, rhp, Deer Valley HS, Antioch, California
18. New York (NL) (from Colorado) -- Aaron Heilman, rhp, Notre Dame
19. Baltimore (from New York - AL) -- Mike Fontenot, 2b, LSU
20. Cincinnati -- Jeremy Sowers, lhp, Ballard HS, Louisville, Kent.
21. San Francisco (from Cleveland) -- Brad Hennessey, rhp, Youngstown State
22. Arizona -- Jason Bulger, rhp, Valdosta State
23. New York (AL) (from Seattle) -- John-Ford Griffin, of, Florida State
24. Atlanta (from Los Angeles) -- Macay McBride, lhp, Screven County HS, Sylvania, Ga.
25. Oakland -- Bobby Crosby, ss, Long Beach State
26. Oakland (from New York - NL) -- Jeremy Bonderman, rhp, Pasco HS, Pasco, Wash.
27. Cleveland (from Chicago - AL) -- Alan Horne, rhp, Marianna HS, Marianna, Fla.
28. St. Louis -- Justin Pope, rhp, Central Florida
29. Atlanta -- Josh Burrus, ss, Wheeler HS, Marietta, Ga.
30. San Francisco -- Noah Lowery, lhp, Pepperdine
2002 Draft (Round 1)
1. Pittsburgh, Bryan Bullington, rhp, Ball State
2. Tampa Bay, B.J. Upton, ss, Greenbrier Christian Academy, Chesapeake, Va.
3. Cincinnati, Chris Gruler, rhp, Liberty HS, Brentwood, Calif.
4. Baltimore, Adam Loewen, lhp, Fraser Valley Christian, Surrey, B.
5. Montreal, Clint Everts, rhp, Cypress Falls HS, Houston.
6. Kansas City, Zack Greinke, rhp, Apopka (Fla.) HS.
7. Milwaukee, Prince Fielder, 1b, Eau Gallie HS, Melbourne, Fla.
8. Detroit, Scott Moore, ss, Cypress (Calif.) HS.
9. Colorado, Jeff Francis, lhp, U. of British Columbia.
10. Texas, Drew Meyer, ss, South Carolina.
11. Florida, Jeremy Hermida, of, Wheeler HS, Marietta, Ga.
12. Anaheim, Joe Saunders, lhp, Virginia Tech.
13. San Diego, Khalil Greene, ss, Clemson.
14. Toronto, Russ Adams, ss, North Carolina.
15. N.Y. Mets, Scott Kazmir, lhp, Cypress Falls HS, Houston.
16. Oakland (from Boston for Johnny Damon), Nick Swisher, 1b-of, Ohio State.
17. Philadelphia, Cole Hamels, lhp, Rancho Bernardo HS, San Diego.
18. Chicago White Sox, Roger Ring, lhp, San Diego State.
19. Los Angeles, James Loney, 1b, Lawrence Elkins HS, Missouri City, Texas.
20. Minnesota, Denard Span, of, Catholic HS, Tampa, Fla.
21. Chicago Cubs, Bobby Brownlie, rhp, Rutgers.
22. Cleveland, Jeremy Guthrie, rhp, Stanford.
23. Atlanta, Jeff Francoeur, of, Parkview HS, Lilburn, Ga.
24. Oakland (from N.Y. Yankees; Jason Giambi), Joseph Blanton, rhp, Kentucky.
25. San Francisco, Matt Cain, rhp, Houston HS, Germantown, Tenn.
26. Oakland, John McCurdy, ss, Maryland.
27. Arizona, Sergio Santos, ss, Mater Dei HS, Hacienda Heights, Calif.
28. Seattle, John Mayberry, Jr., 1b, Rockhurst HS, Kansas City, Mo.
29. Houston, Derick Grigsby, rhp, Northeast Texas CC.
30. Oakland (from St. Louis; Jason Isringhausen), Ben Fritz, rhp, Fresno State.
Sandwich picks before second round
31. Los Angeles - Gregory Miller, lhp, Esperanza HS (Calif.)
32. Chicago (NL) - Luke Hagerty, lhp, Ball State
33. Cleveland - Matthew Whitney, 3b, Palm Beach Gardens HS (Fla.)
34. Atlanta - Daniel Meyer, lhp, James Madison
35. Oakland - Jeremy Brown, c, Alabama
36. Chicago (NL) - Chad Blasko, rhp, Purdue
37. Oakland - Stephen Obenchain, rhp, Evansville
38. Chicago (NL) - Matthew Clanton, rhp, Orange Coast CC
39. Oakland - Mark Teahen, 3b, St. Mary's College
40. Cincinnati - Mark Schramek, rhp, Texas
41. Cleveland - Micah Schilling, 2b, Sillman Institute
MWM,I'd be surprised if three years from now, people here on RedsZone who weren't around for this draft or who didn't pay much attention will be shaking their heads asking this question, "You mean we could have had Chris Nelson and we ended up taking homer Bailey?" Wow!
If you're gonna accuse me of not getting it, I can read. If that makes you feel like banging your head against the wall, then you understand my frustration as well, when I take what someone says in a post and they tell me that they didn't say that. Also, O'Brien says pretty much what I've been saying all along, they know its a calculated risk but came to the conclusion that this might be a stock that takes off one day. Ok, so some think they're idiots for taking that chance. Like I said elsewhere, it is only fair to let them draft who they believe the BPA was and not have to be subject to the history of another regime's draft picks and let them have their own history starting with this draft, not condemning them for picks someone else made. Who knows, maybe "three years from now" or later folks will be amazed at how the Reds have been able to buck the odds and convert two high school arms into members of the rotation. If that makes me a fool for understanding that is against probability tables but could happen, then I'll just have to admit that I don't make every decision based on actuarial tables, and apparently, neither do O'Brien and Reynolds.
My feelings exactly. To the team's credit, the 2002 draft featured a lot of overdrafts taken in the name of staying within budget. That wasn't necessarily the case this year, though I think it will prove a budget-friendly draft (they've got a few problem children who'll have to take what they're offered). Yet, unless guys like Bailey, Szymanski and Strait prove apt pupils, this group has the potential to whittle itself down as quickly as the 2002 class (with Joey Votto and Chris Denorfia the only two looking particularly prospecty these days).Originally Posted by Bill
Spot on (and on a separate note, how bad was that 2000 draft? -- got to be among the worst ever), rule of thumb I use is you tack five years onto it and that's when you can expect to see a large number of players from a given draft making it to the majors. One caveat, the "Moneyball" draft class of 2002 has been advanced quickly and it looks like many of those guys are on a three- or four-year arc. That doesn't mean they're any sort of superior talent, but Beane's plan to use all those picks to restock the system, get players to the majors post haste and have lots of trade flexibility looks to be on track.
The Reds may even be six or seven years off with HS arms like Bailey, Gonzalez, Valiquette and Young. That's how long it took Roy Halladay and Curt Schilling. They've really put a hot potato in the laps of the developmental folks. One way or another Tim Naehring's team is going to get a chance to prove itself.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I'm not going to make any new arguments, but I will re-post what I already posted on my intent with the comment because you apparently missed it. If you want to project your own beliefs on my comments, feel free. By saying I'd be surprised, I simply meant that it's much more likely. But you obviously know what I meant moreso than I did. The snide "actuarial table comments" are old and tired, just trying to paint a picture of guys who believe like me as robots who see only numbers.I said I would be surprised. It's just another way of saying it's much more likely that Nelson will have a big impact on a big league club than Bailey. That was the intent of my comment.
But if you gain comfort in the track record of guys like Reynolds, I have no problem with that. If you believe in the same tired arguments that have been made over and over and over again with no success, then don't ridicule me for choosing to believe in a different path, and for feeling the liberty to express such an opinion.
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
It appears the Reds are hooking their starting pitching wagon up to Bailey, Young, Gonzalez and Valiquette. Certainly those are four talented arms, all throw hard. Knowing what we already know about high school arms, they are already at a disadvantage to make it to the bigs, particularly with the Reds. Even if three of them can stay healthy, they have far to go in the development stage with lots of hard work.
That's where makeup comes into play. Gonzalez has not even pitched for his last two high schools as he would not do the academic work required and he let Luis Polonia drag him back to the DR in a futile attempt to avoid the draft. He has also added weight over this time. Does this kid have the determination and work ethic required to stick with several years of development? Does Terrell Young, who is said to lack maturity and already has a three year old kid? Now baseball is not rocket science so I don't care about the reports on taking special ed classes, but if a kid with his arm and an easy sign falls to 9, then I believe the maturity questions. Again I ask, is this the type of kid that will persevere over all the obstacles and time to become a productive major leaguer.
You've got to handicap the above two selections to make it, laying our hopes squarely on Bailey and Valiquette to stay healthy and develop into big league pitchers. It's possible but even if they make it, will it be in time to save Obrien's job? Sure the potential reward is great for these four young arms, but why take such great risks of both time and failure?
For the record, Bailey outdueled Ryan Wagner in Wagners senior year of HS in a Class 3A championship. I had also read that he had beaten Scott Kazmir as well.
Dont get me wrong, I like Nelson, as a matter of fact, I had him and Bailey 1A and 1B. While Nelson has a good enough bat to hit 25-30 HRs(not factoring Coors inflation), Bailey has the ability to be a pitcher that can rival the Woods, Priors, and Oswalts.
From BP yesterday
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2945
The emphasis on the first round is why teams should be a bit nervous about today's festivities. Four years ago, the player pool was similarly unexciting, and the first 30 picks from the 2000 draft have generated precious little performance, and the players still labeled prospects show little sign of saving the first round of that draft. The first round of that draft appears to be on its way to being labeled a complete disaster.
Just as one measure, take a look at the composite MLB numbers for that group as of this morning:
Hitters (four players): .271 BA, 316 OBP, .400 SLG in 1286 PA. 27 SB, 11 CS
Pitchers (six players): 234 IP, 168 ER, 114 BB, 164 K, 12-23 record, 6.46 ERA
That's not entirely fair as a marker--those players are in just their fourth professional season--but when you look at the names in that first round, you see that those stat lines aren't going to get much better. Adrian Gonzalez, the Marlins' signability pick at #1, is a B prospect at first base. The #2 pick, Adam Johnson, has struggled. Overall, 10 ten of these guys have reached the majors, with the best of them a flawed center fielder, Rocco Baldelli. The bulk of the pitching performance is by Billy Traber, who is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Just two players from that first round made our Top 50 Prospects list, both of those (Adam Wainwright and Sean Burnett) in the bottom 10. Gonzalez will probably have a career, and Chase Utley and David Krynzel might. It's possible, even probable, that not one of the players taken in the first round of the 2000 draft will ever make an All-Star team. I can't find a draft, going back to 1989's, in which that was true.
Right now, the 30 players from that group are distributed as follows:
MLB: 3
Triple-A: 8
Double-A: 5
High A: 2
Low A: 1
Not playing this year (injured): 7
Out of organized baseball: 4
Five of the top 10 picks in that draft have yet to play in organized baseball this season. All five of them are high-school pitchers, four of them derailed by injuries, one by...well, I'll leave it to others to sort out blame in the case of Matt Harrington. More than one-third of the first-round picks in the 2000 draft aren't playing baseball for an affiliated team this year. By any standards, that's a disaster.
The total cost for all of this? A mere $57,255,000, or about 1.05 Dreifort. The 11 players who aren't playing this year, just four years after being drafted, combined for about $15 million of that.
Good point bill.. it does seem that we got more potential "problem children" this year.
It's kind of obvious that the new regime thinks these guys are undervalued.
Maybe they think their new disciplined system will straighten it out.
I really know nothing about any of the guys from round 2 and on, just the clips everyone
else has read. But it's kind of sad to see little enthusiasm in the latter picks (Although
some people got excited about #2)..
But I guess if we had drafted Nelson or a college pitcher first, people would've been
a lot more upbeat about the rest of the draft. So maybe the 2nd and later rounds were good,
the wind was just knocked out of a lot of folks' sails with the #1 pick..
We'll see. I hope some of these guys pan out.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Moving on to Day Two. I can not believe this player is still on the board. Someone get DanO on the line.
ECU'S Ryan Jones Named a Finalist for Dick Howser Trophy
06/04/2004
PICTURED: Ryan Jones (Photo by Kip Sloan)
CHICAGO - East Carolina senior DH/OF Ryan Jones has been named as one of 10 finalists for the Dick Howser Trophy, given to collegiate baseball's top player. The National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association, which works in association with the St. Petersburg Area Chamber of Commerce on the award, released the list of the 10 finalists for the trophy today. The membership of the NCBWA will choose the Dick Howser Trophy based on three rounds of voting. The 2004 winner will be announced at the College World Series in Omaha on Friday, June 18 at 9:30 a.m. CDT.
Jones was named the 2004 Conference USA Player of the Year after hitting .409 heading into the conference tournament and finishing league play hitting .407 in conference. Currently, he leads the nation in slugging percentage (.834) with 46 of his 80 hits serving as extra-base hits including 24 doubles, four triples and 18 home runs for a team-high 66 RBI. Jones posted 24 multiple hit games and 14 multiple RBI games.
On Thursday, Jones was named a first team All-American by Louisville Slugger/Collegiate Baseball.
The other finalists include: Rutgers P Jeff Frazier, Nebraska 3B Alex Gordon, Ole Miss 1B/P Stephen Head, Texas P J.P. Howell, Rice P Philip Humber, Virginia UT Joe Koshansky, Stanford 2B Jed Lowrie, South Carolina C Landon Powell and Long Beach State P Jered Weaver.
The Dick Howser Trophy, given in memory of the former Florida State University All-America shortstop and major league player and manager who died of brain cancer in 1987, is regarded by many as college baseball's most prestigious award.
Criteria for consideration for the trophy include performance on the field, leadership, moral character and courage, qualities that were exemplified by Dick Howser's life.
Ok, but the second paragraph is a new argumentNo where did I approach the track record of Terry Reynolds. Not qualified to do so and haven't. The actuarial table comment was not snide, that is what you have been arguing with since yesterday about one draft pick. And liberty to express an opinion? So do the folks who shrug their shoulders and say, "man, this kid might be something special since those in charge acknowledged that they understood about the lack of experience of this kid but are willing to take that chance anyways." What I find most interesting of all about this entire discussion is that folks play the armchair QB as if they are more qualified than the one's making the decisions, but then when you question their opinion, they distance themselves from being an expert.
The new assistant GM for the A's was interviewed during the game last night, and he reiterated Oakland's SOP to draft college pitchers. He also said the former Oakland execs (Ricciardi, DePodesta) were likely to do the same. If enough GMs ascribe to this mindset, HS pitchers should begin to "slide" down the draft board, and be available to GMs who are willing to take the risk
I'm not saying it's right, but it could have something to do with Reynolds' about-face in the 2004 draft. (As Yogi Berra would say) "when you come to the BPA 'fork' in the road, take it"
Never overlook the obvious
Yeah Syzmanski is not a bad pick at two even if he is a 5-tool OF in need of plate patience. A little nostalgia never hurt.
He's smart and it should come with more playing time.
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