2004 Draft thread

[Red Leader]

With all of the great college pitching and all of the trouble we've had with HS arms, I just do not understand why the Reds would pass on a college pitcher like Townsend or Sowers for Bailey or even Nelson if it comes to that.

I agree, however, I don't like hearing in write ups that Townsend and Diamond project as closers. If that's the case, don't draft either of the two. We need a legit "STUD" starting pitcher, and not a reliever that can get to the majors quickly like Wagner last year.

If no STUD starting pitching options are there, take Nelson.

[knuckler]

Baseball America also lists draft-and-follows and 5th-year college players recently signed. It's not as glamorous as the draft, but guys like Calvin Medlock, David Shafer and Derek Hawk (all on the Dragons now) were draft-and-follow signees. The Reds didn't get anybody via draft-and-follow this year, but they did sign three 5th-year college guys:

OF Jeremiah Piepkorn recently started with the Dayton Dragons
OF Ashley Farr
LHP Adam Lingenfelter

I don't know anything more about these guys, although there is a thread about Mr. Piepkorn for the interested.

[NC Reds]

What I really like about Sowers is how consistently good he has been in a great baseball conference. He sees better competition throughout a season than any of the Rice pitchers. I would still take Niemann over him, but it is close.

[lollipopcurve]

I think if you're looking to get potential aces into your organization, and you're a small/mid market team, you could do a lot worse than taking the #1 HS pitcher in the draft. It's higher risk, higher potential reward. But we all know no aces are coming to Cincy via free agency. I am not saying the Red should or shouldn't take Bailey or Rogers. I'm saying I think it's a legitimate gamble, if they do.

Still, my personal preference is Sowers or Nelson. But I'm no professional.

Rounds 2-5 are what intrigue me. They are what will show what Reynolds is about, I think, as much as the #1 pick.

[jmcclain19]

Anyone else catch some of the numbers Gammons quoted yesterday in his draft column

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1816317

In the 1989-99 drafts of first round picks
62% of College Arms made the majors
43% of HS Arms
65% of College Bats
60% of HS Bats

Then he also pointed out this

One club's study shows that from 1993 to 2001, $191 million was spent on first-round high school players, and $123.4 million of those dollars have never seen the big leagues. From 1991 through 2001, 49 percent of No. 1 picks out of high school made the majors, and of those 24 percent were regulars.

I wish I could remember who, but another Redszoner a day or so ago said he had the worst feeling about Nelson.

And besides, the kid's name is HOMER!?!?

Here's a bit from that MLB.com story on Bailey. Certainly doesn't inspire any faith that the Reds could make a smart choice

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASAp...2004&fext=.jsp

La GRANGE, Texas -- One of the three cute girls standing by the desk in the office at the high school announced "Super Star" as Homer Bailey walked by. He smiled, but didn't stop to acknowledge the compliment.
Bailey, projected to be the No. 1 high school player taken in Monday's draft, has grown accustom to such adulation.

"Pretty much everyone knows who I am," he said of living in this town of 4,400 in central Texas, 100 miles west of Houston. "Sometimes it's a good thing. Sometimes it's a bad thing, because people who you never met decide you're best friends.

"There's always a jealousy factor in a small town. A lot of people don't see the hard work and dedication it takes."

When you're a 6-foot-4 right-hander with a 94 mph fastball, a 13-0 record and 0.57 ERA, people know who you are, from near and far. Coach Ralph Ferguson said 43 pro scouts attended Bailey's first game this season. And that was a scrimmage!

High school pitchers sometimes compile outrageous statistics against overmatched hitters, particularly in Bailey's case when you're playing at the 3A high school level.

But it's his nearly immaculate control that catches your eye. In 78 2/3 innings this season Bailey has struck out 180 and walked only 12. That's right. Just 12 walks.

"Throwing strikes is easy," he said. "I've always had decent control. You go after batters. If I want to throw a strike, I can."

Opponents are hitting a measly .089 against him.

"When they hit the ball, people (from the other team) cheer," Ferguson said. "Base hits are like they scored a run."

Bailey has allowed only 27 hits all season.

There's nothing fancy about him. He throws a fastball, curveball and occasional changeup.

"I live with the fastball and curveball," he said. "I can't really throw a changeup that much playing high school baseball. It's the only thing they can hit."

Frankly, the competition during the regular season can be lacking. La Grange won several games by the 10-run rule.

"Three-A baseball is not where I'm really challenged," said Bailey, who plays for the more competitive Houston Heat in the summer.

He was born to pitch.

[Raisor]

I think if you're looking to get potential aces into your organization, and you're a small/mid market team, you could do a lot worse than taking the #1 HS pitcher in the draft. It's higher risk, higher potential reward. .

The "higer risk" part is why you DON'T take a HS pitcher with a 1st round pick, if you're a small market team.

[M2]

I agree, however, I don't like hearing in write ups that Townsend and Diamond project as closers. If that's the case, don't draft either of the two. We need a legit "STUD" starting pitcher, and not a reliever that can get to the majors quickly like Wagner last year.

If no STUD starting pitching options are there, take Nelson.

I agree about staying away from relievers. OTOH, if the Reds think Townshend and Diamond can cut it as starters, then I'd be highly interested.

As for the pecking order, while I understand the organization needs all the pitching it can get, there's 0% doubt in my mind that Nelson is the signature player in this draft, a major league All-Star level SS in the making. To put this in terms Cincinnatians can easily identify with -- Matt Bush will be playing Akili Smith to Chris Nelson's Donovan McNabb in the future.

Nelson's the guy with star written all over him. In this case, I'd be label shopping.

[Red Leader]

The "higer risk" part is why you DON'T take a HS pitcher with a 1st round pick, if you're a small market team.

Well said, Raisor. I agree. Picking #7 you either have to get your STUD starter for the future, or a potential perennial All-Star position player and BOTH better be pretty sure things.

[princeton]

The Reds didn't get anybody via draft-and-follow this year.

Peter Gammons wrote twice that RHPer Matt Harrington is working at Best Buy

I was thinking that the Reds might make a play for 2003 draftee 1b/OF Johntavis Character

[Hobo]

"I live with the fastball and curveball," he said. "I can't really throw a changeup that much playing high school baseball. It's the only thing they can hit." Geez, he better be really good with his location, if he thinks he's going to get big league hitters out with fastballs and curveballs.

[Raisor]

M2,

Here's why I'd still go college pitching, even if Nelson is still around. If you stockpile arms, you can always trade some to fill needs.

Much easier to move pitching for offense then offense for pitching.

[Red Leader]

M2,

Here's why I'd still go college pitching, even if Nelson is still around. If you stockpile arms, you can always trade some to fill needs.

Much easier to move pitching for offense then offense for pitching.

I would say that someone woke up today ready for the draft.

The last two statements you've made have been really good ones, Raisor. A lot of common sense in those statements that a lot of people overlook.

[princeton]

The "higer risk" part is why you DON'T take a HS pitcher with a 1st round pick, if you're a small market team.

oh I disagree with that

the Reds do have to draft a guy that's going to work out. But that's because the system is a shambles, not because we're a small market team

if we had a more talented system, we could better afford to take a gamble.

[Raisor]

I would say that someone woke up today ready for the draft.

.

Actually, I thought the dumb thing was next week until I logged on this morning.

[GriffeyFan]

MLB.com is saying you can watch the first 5 rounds on their website through streaming video. This is the first year for this isn't it?