Turn Off Ads?
Page 4 of 44 FirstFirst 1234567814 ... LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 651

Thread: 2004 Draft thread

  1. #46
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    2,272

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    If Weaver and Drew drop to low 1r, it essentially means the Reds are drafting 9th in terms of gettign the 9th best player available. If Drew stays in, the Reds would have had a shot at either Sowers or Bush depending on which the indians took.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #47
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,258

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    If you're ideologically opposed to taking high school pitchers at the top of the draft, you would n't even look at Kerry Wood, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke. Again, I'm not saying the Reds should take a HS pitcher. But I do think it's shortsighted to advocate NEVER doing so. If you have a shot at the top HS pitcher in the country, you have to consider it seriously, in my opinion. Potential #1s aren't available for the choosing often. If Reynolds et al pull the trigger on Bailey or Rogers, I'll applaud them for not making the safe pick. You want high rewards, you have to take risks sometimes. Got to get outside the box every now and then.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  4. #48
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,448

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    M2,

    Here's why I'd still go college pitching, even if Nelson is still around. If you stockpile arms, you can always trade some to fill needs.

    Much easier to move pitching for offense then offense for pitching.
    Thing is, I'm not interested in the Reds spending the #7 pick in the draft on trade bait. What I want them to pick is someone they'd never consider trading in a billion years.

    For me, Nelson's that player. I'm not interested in any other position player on that pick. If Nelson's not there, then I'd be taking the top college arm on my board. I want the sure thing. In Nelson I really think the Reds are looking at a guy in the Jeter/Upton class. He's played top-flight competition and dominated. He's got a full compliment of tools and skills. In addition he's got "plus-plus makeup." It's like meeting a supermodel, nuclear physicist with a heart of gold who just won the Pulitzer for fiction and who thinks you're really cute and funny and can't keep her hands off of you.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  5. #49
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,448

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    If you're ideologically opposed to taking high school pitchers at the top of the draft, you would n't even look at Kerry Wood, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke. Again, I'm not saying the Reds should take a HS pitcher. But I do think it's shortsighted to advocate NEVER doing so. If you have a shot at the top HS pitcher in the country, you have to consider it seriously, in my opinion. Potential #1s aren't available for the choosing often. If Reynolds et al pull the trigger on Bailey or Rogers, I'll applaud them for not making the safe pick. You want high rewards, you have to take risks sometimes. Got to get outside the box every now and then.
    The Reds have been outside that box three times in the past five drafts and it's gotten them nowhere.

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    the Reds do have to draft a guy that's going to work out. But that's because the system is a shambles, not because we're a small market team

    if we had a more talented system, we could better afford to take a gamble.
    Pretty much sums it up for me.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #50
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    Panama City Beach
    Posts
    13,773

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Hobo
    "I live with the fastball and curveball," he said. "I can't really throw a changeup that much playing high school baseball. It's the only thing they can hit." Geez, he better be really good with his location, if he thinks he's going to get big league hitters out with fastballs and curveballs.
    I don't think he thinks he can get by with a fastball and a curve (although many pitchers have - see Doc Gooden, circa 1984). He is 17 or 18 and already working to develop a change, the problem he has is he can't use it against HS hitters cause they are already so late on his fastball that when they see the change (which I assume they still believe from his arm action is a fastball), they can now catch up to the change. In short, cause I'm not sure how clear that was - they see the fastball arm action, take their normal cut and now they actually make contact cause the change is slower.

    But if he is already working on developing a change that is a good sign for whoever drafts him.
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
    - - Rowdy Roddy Piper

    "It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
    - - Fletch

  7. #51
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    Panama City Beach
    Posts
    13,773

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    It's like meeting a supermodel, nuclear physicist with a heart of gold who just won the Pulitzer for fiction and who thinks you're really cute and funny and can't keep her hands off of you.
    When did I tell you about my weekend?
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
    - - Rowdy Roddy Piper

    "It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
    - - Fletch

  8. #52
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Phoenix
    Posts
    6,490

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    If you're ideologically opposed to taking high school pitchers at the top of the draft, you would n't even look at Kerry Wood, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke. Again, I'm not saying the Reds should take a HS pitcher. But I do think it's shortsighted to advocate NEVER doing so. If you have a shot at the top HS pitcher in the country, you have to consider it seriously, in my opinion. Potential #1s aren't available for the choosing often. If Reynolds et al pull the trigger on Bailey or Rogers, I'll applaud them for not making the safe pick. You want high rewards, you have to take risks sometimes. Got to get outside the box every now and then.
    I agree the team has to take risks. But like the Gammons column pointed out.

    If you were a gambler, and you had four choices, and three of the choices had similiar odds, but one choice had significantly lower odds, and you didn't have that much money to gamble with, which one would you choose?

    I don't think many in this thread are advocating never picking HS pitchers, just not with the first pick. With so much money at stake and the Reds horrid recent history w/ HS pitchers (Gruler, Howington, Sowers, McClendon) - I would hope they are a tad more risk adverse.

  9. #53
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,258

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    M2,
    3 out of the last 5? Disagree -- what I said was that when you have a shot at the top HS arm in the draft, you have to consider it seriously. I'll give you Gruler. But Howington was not the #1 HS arm, nor was Sowers (and we all know the Reds had NO intention of signing whoever they chose that year).
    Hey, I'm for drafting Sowers or Nelson. But bottom line is I'm against coming out staunchly opposed to the #1 HS arm in the country. The thinking is too rigid, in my opinion.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #54
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    43,284

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19
    I agree the team has to take risks. But like the Gammons column pointed out.

    If you were a gambler, and you had four choices, and three of the choices had similiar odds, but one choice had significantly lower odds, and you didn't have that much money to gamble with, which one would you choose?

    I don't think many in this thread are advocating never picking HS pitchers, just not with the first pick. With so much money at stake and the Reds horrid recent history w/ HS pitchers (Gruler, Howington, Sowers, McClendon) - I would hope they are a tad more risk adverse.
    I can hit on 17 and get 4 or I can play it safe and play longer.

    I agree that one shouldn't turn their nose up at HS talent, but climbing out of a hole often involves small moves that are logically going to get you out of said hole. In my mind 1st round picks should not be the high leverage *what-if* picks when you're talent level is low (like your wallet whilst playing blackjack) make the best decision to keep you in the game and build up your war chest.

  11. #55
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Phoenix
    Posts
    6,490

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    I can hit on 17 and get 4 or I can play it safe and play longer.

    I agree that one shouldn't turn their nose up at HS talent, but climbing out of a hole often involves small moves that are logically going to get you out of said hole. In my mind 1st round picks should not be the high leverage *what-if* picks when you're talent level is low (like your wallet whilst playing blackjack) make the best decision to keep you in the game and build up your war chest.
    I agree on a strategy to make the best decision to move forward.

    But you ignore recent history at your own peril.

    4 of the last 8 picks the Reds have made in the first round have been HS arms.

    Not a single one of those picks have yet to throw an inning above AA ball for the Reds.

    Something to think about.

  12. #56
    Member ochre's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Posts
    4,266

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    I am in the Nelson camp.

  13. #57
    C-A-T-S CATS! CATS! CATS! WVRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Almost Heaven
    Posts
    8,445

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    The Reds have been outside that box three times in the past five drafts and it's gotten them nowhere.



    Pretty much sums it up for me.
    We didnt have an inconsistent drafting sociopath as a GM either. We picked one high school arm(Chris Gruler) over the top lefty prospect in the Mets organization.(Scott Kazmir).

    I understand the prospect of college arms helping sooner rather than later, but thats not necessarily the case. Most of the top pitching prospects or current pitchers in the game are high schoolers(see lollipopcurves list).

    Best example-The Pirates wanted a college arm with the first overall pick in 2002. They took Bryan Bullington, who wasnt rated near as well as some of the other picks. Bullington may be 4th on the Pirates farm system, while two of the other picks(BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir) are top 25 prospects in baseball.
    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    I've read books about sparkling vampires who walk around in the daylight that were written better than a John Fay article.

  14. #58
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    in hindsight, Sowers was the right pick (had he been signed), not a Howington/Gruler quality-pick

    the only guy drafted around that slot that you'd really rather have right now is 3bman David Wright, who went 18 picks later.

  15. #59
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,258

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Top 6 HS arms drafted in 2002
    Gruler
    Loewen
    Everts
    Greinke
    Kazmir
    Hamels
    Cain

    Top 6 college arms drafted in 2002
    Bullington
    Francis
    Saunders
    Ring
    Brownlie
    Guthrie
    Blanton

    That year, you had some great HS arms. It's possible to argue that the choice of Gruler wasn't necessarily a bad choice, but that the Reds worked him too hard, leading to surgery. It's plausible that the new 75-pitch limit (and perhaps other allowances made for newly drafted HS arms???) will curtail the risk of injury to young arms, making Bailey or Rogers safer choices now than Gruler was under a previous regime.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  16. #60
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Indianapolis, Ind.
    Posts
    2,785

    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    If Sowers is gone and Nelson is available, I want him.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25