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Thread: 2004 Draft thread

  1. #586
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    I'd be surprised if three years from now, people here on RedsZone who weren't around for this draft or who didn't pay much attention will be shaking their heads asking this question, "You mean we could have had Chris Nelson and we ended up taking homer Bailey?" Wow!
    You might be right.

    But, then again, the experts (whoever they are) had Bailey pegged higher than Nelson.

    It's not like the Reds passed over a player due to money.

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    I'd be surprised if three years from now, people here on RedsZone who weren't around for this draft or who didn't pay much attention will be shaking their heads asking this question, "You mean we could have had Chris Nelson and we ended up taking homer Bailey?" Wow!
    Ive been watching video clips over Bailey, and the more I see his delivery, the more I see Roy Oswalt. His delivery doesnt seem near as violent though as what I had imagined(which could be a good sign).

    On a side comment, I think the DRays are going to be the Detroit Lions of baseball(improving quickly). Niemann is a beast, 6'9 with a Barry Zitolike curveball and probably more gas than Zito. Add that to Crawford, Baldelli, Delmon Young, and BJ Upton, and yikes.
    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    I've read books about sparkling vampires who walk around in the daylight that were written better than a John Fay article.

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRed
    Ive been watching video clips over Bailey, and the more I see his delivery, the more I see Roy Oswalt. His delivery doesnt seem near as violent though as what I had imagined(which could be a good sign).

    On a side comment, I think the DRays are going to be the Detroit Lions of baseball(improving quickly). Niemann is a beast, 6'9 with a Barry Zitolike curveball and probably more gas than Zito. Add that to Crawford, Baldelli, Delmon Young, and BJ Upton, and yikes.
    The D-Rays certainly have pieces (players/prospects mentioned above), but with their terrible fan base and $30M payroll, they'll never get any serious contender going.

    By the time Delmon Young and Niemann can make an impact, Baldelli and Crawford will probably be gone. And I don't see B.J. Upton staying there is entire career.

    D-Rays are just screwed. Period. They're probably the only team I don't see a glimmer of hope for.
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    I like this draft because there appear to be lots of interesting stories, and I am more a fan of tools than of performance when it comes to young players. The strident opposition of M2 and MWM is based on sound reasoning and factual evidence. Hard to dispute the actuarial tables. But that stuff is no fun. Really looking forward to the start of the Billings and GCL Reds seasons -- love those 6 minor league box scores. And a Reds pitcher named Homer -- perfect.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    I'd be surprised if three years from now, people here on RedsZone who weren't around for this draft or who didn't pay much attention will be shaking their heads asking this question, "You mean we could have had Chris Nelson and we ended up taking homer Bailey?" Wow!
    But what I find interesting about that mindset is that Nelson is considered a sure thing, I guess since we didn't draft him, while the guy we pick is doomed to failure. Guess its just the nature of a fan.

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Oxilon
    The D-Rays certainly have pieces (players/prospects mentioned above), but with their terrible fan base and $30M payroll, they'll never get any serious contender going.

    By the time Delmon Young and Niemann can make an impact, Baldelli and Crawford will probably be gone. And I don't see B.J. Upton staying there is entire career.

    D-Rays are just screwed. Period. They're probably the only team I don't see a glimmer of hope for.
    If im right, and the team starts winning around that time, the revenue will start to come in. When that happens, the players will be locked up.

    Then again, people said that about the Royals last year and the Reds this year.
    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    I've read books about sparkling vampires who walk around in the daylight that were written better than a John Fay article.

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    First I've made no predictions on Bailey dire or otherwise. I understand that macro numbers are trends and not oracles. Yet the Reds are particularly a team that can't afford failures at this time and I've yet to see anything about Bailey which indicates he's worth this kind of risk. In other words, no one's presenting any micro evidence other than he's a HS pitcher with talent. I know that. Thing is, talent's not hard to find. Guys that can survive the minor league gauntlet and pitch in the majors are. When it comes to that, I'm going to consult the odds.

    This is a rewind of the discussions this board had about Gruler two years ago. He was going to kick butt and rise fast we were told. That smooth delivery meant he wasn't going to get injured like those other HS pitchers with their bad mechanics we were told.

    That's my breakdown here. You can't promise me anything. You can't even give me good odds. I'm a guy who's worried about the sorry state of the Reds' farm system. I want to see improvement and what they picked was a kid who, if he stays on track, will make it to AA to start the 2007 season.

    It's a policy that's failed the Reds of late. They've had a world to trouble keeping pitchers, particularly HS arms, healthy and they're back at it. To me Bailey's a bad fit for a this organization and a terribly unfortunate selection given some of the talent that was still on the board.
    No one can promise anything when it comes to draft picks, so nor could you if we picked the boy you've been pimping. I've stated several times that I understand the risky nature of the pick and that the odds are against him, but that there are also some legitimate arguments for the other side that have to be considered. I like to consider that there are some valid business reasons to make risky moves, regardless of what JP Riccardi says, and that it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Plus, if the Reds are a team that cannot afford failure, then I do not see why part of an ongoing criticism is to not spend enough money on the draft, because that is some of the riskiest money spent by every team year after year, regardless of whether they perform "Moneyball" drafts or not. After all, this discussion is centering around taking a HS pitcher in the first round, not the entire draft.

    BTW, I would consider repeatedly stating the point that why will Bailey be any different than Gruler and reminding us several times of the odds against him quite dire predictions. Perhaps I misunderstood.

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    But what I find interesting about that mindset is that Nelson is considered a sure thing, I guess since we didn't draft him, while the guy we pick is doomed to failure. Guess its just the nature of a fan.
    Not a sure thing, but a much better bet, IMO.
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    BTW, I would consider repeatedly stating the point that why will Bailey be any different than Gruler and reminding us several times of the odds against him quite dire predictions. Perhaps I misunderstood.
    Odds are odds. Similarities are similarities. Those would have been enough to keep me away and certainly those things, coupled with the level of talent still on the board, are why I think the Reds took a needless risk.

    Prediction? There's simply nothing in Bailey's resume from which I would try to project his performance. We'll start finding out about him in rookie ball. One of the reasons why I liked Nelson so much was that, unlike Bailey, he'd gone against the best HS players in the nation and proven himself exceptional. Given his tools and makeup I see no reason why he wouldn't continue in that vein. With Bailey I'm not going to pretend I can predict anything. Thing is, I'm fairly certain the Reds can't do it either.

    They clearly went for tools in this draft (something JimBo was tarred and feathered for, btw). I like tools too, but the Reds draft really comes down to the judgment of the folks making the picks. Moreso than other teams, evaluating the Reds' picks involves your level of trust in the people making the call. Given the track record of Terry Reynolds and the Reds scouting department, I'd like to see more picks that can be independently verified as having been good moves.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    No one can promise anything when it comes to draft picks, so nor could you if we picked the boy you've been pimping.
    Well hell, why not pick the names out of a hat then. Or better yet, just pick the player who will sign for the cheapest.

    I've stated several times that I understand the risky nature of the pick and that the odds are against him, but that there are also some legitimate arguments for the other side that have to be considered.
    if you understand that the odds are against him, why wouldn't you be in favor of them reducing the risk and taking a pick with better odds and similar upside?

    I like to consider that there are some valid business reasons to make risky moves
    The same arguments that were used to draft Gruler and Howington and many others. Of course there are reasons for it or else they wouldn't have done it.

    TR, honestly, I can't tell if you're disagreeing with us, if you like the pick, or if you're just trying to argue the other side.

    I can only speak for myself, but I do understand the other side of the arguments. Honest, I do. But I strongly disagree with that side of the fence. That doesn't mean I haven't considered it or don't understand it. I get the impression that that's what you are perceiving. Hey, I understand where they're coming from. I think it's a philosophy set up to fail, especially with the current state of the farm. And I'm just expressing that opinion. Nothing more.

    Just because someone strongly opposes an ideology does not mean they don't understand it or haven't considered it's merits. Some people seem opposed on disagreement with moves like this on principle. I might not have a job in baseball, but I still am going to express my displeasure. I'm more than aware of the fact that I might be proven dead wrong.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    TR, honestly, I can't tell if you're disagreeing with us, if you like the pick, or if you're just trying to argue the other side.
    Honestly, I can simply see both sides of this argument. It is kind of interesting to see you make a prediction that our guy will bomb and this guy Nelson will make us sorry we didn't pick him. I do not understand why saying something like that isn't going out on a limb anymore than you think the Reds did with this pick. That mindset puzzles me. Do I hear what you and M2 have been pounding your fists on the pulpit about? Sure, and for an overall draft strategy, your positions have merits. One thing I am curious about is what is behind the phenomena regarding the HS vs. college pitcher picks. But for this one pick, I think you both have went a bit overboard and touted one other player as clearly a superior pick. I refuse to be so dismissive of players based on one attribute.

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRed
    Ive been watching video clips over Bailey, and the more I see his delivery, the more I see Roy Oswalt. His delivery doesnt seem near as violent though as what I had imagined(which could be a good sign).

    On a side comment, I think the DRays are going to be the Detroit Lions of baseball(improving quickly). Niemann is a beast, 6'9 with a Barry Zitolike curveball and probably more gas than Zito. Add that to Crawford, Baldelli, Delmon Young, and BJ Upton, and yikes.
    I too have been watching the video clips of Bailey and several other players. This kids delivery is so smooth and effortless I couldn't believe he was getting the ball up to 95 mph. If you're looking for a bona fide #1, this kid looks like he's got the tools. The other important factor is, according to articles, he's extremely mature. I have to admit that Chris Nelson's clips looked damn good too. He's got a great swing!

  14. #598
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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    It is kind of interesting to see you make a prediction that our guy will bomb and this guy Nelson will make us sorry we didn't pick him.
    AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    These are the types of things that make me want to bang my head against the wall!!!!!!!!

    I respect you, tr, and I know you're smarter than this (not as far as agreeing with me, but relating to projecting an argument never made). I'll try this again. I, nor anyone else, made a prediction that Bailey will bomb and Nelson will wind up in the hall of fame. All we've talked about is probabilities and liklihoods. I can't predict what Bailey and Nelson will do. I'd never try. But I can say with relative confidence that it's more likely that Nelson will wind up being an impact player in the big leagues than Bailey.


    One thing I am curious about is what is behind the phenomena regarding the HS vs. college pitcher picks.
    I don't know what's behind it but here's a few facts posted earlier in the thread:

    From 1985 through 1997, 93 pitchers from four-year colleges were drafted in the first round, and 72 of them (77.4 percent) have reached the majors.

    From 1985 through 1997, 61 pitchers from high schools were drafted in the first round, and 35 of them (57.3 percent) have reached the majors.

    The college pitchers who have reached the majors have thrown more innings with a lower ERA than the high-school pitchers who have reached the majors.

    Over that same 13-year span, only one high-school first-rounder (Kerry Wood) has a career ERA under 4.00; 16 college first-rounders do.


    But for this one pick, I think you both have went a bit overboard and touted one other player as clearly a superior pick. I refuse to be so dismissive of players based on one attribute.
    This isn't just about Nelson vs Bailey. The desire to hae Chris Nelson isn't as strong as the desire for a different approach to the draft. There are several other picks I would have been more satisfied with. Maybe I have gone overboard. Afterall, it is just one pick. But, like I said earlier, it's not the pick itself as much as what the pick represents (and the rest of the draft for that matter). That's what's fueling most of my reaction. It's not that I'm overly repulsed by Bailey. As far as HS pitchers go, he's probably as good as any. I was just hoping for a new way of thinking, because the old way clearly didn't work.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    How did you not say that? You said in three years people will wish they had picked Nelson, basically exactly what Traderumor said.

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    Re: 2004 Draft thread

    I said I would be surprised. It's just another way of saying it's much more likely that Nelson will have a big impact on a big league club than Bailey. That was the intent of my comment.

    No pick is a sure thing, but based on my reading, Nelson is as close as they come.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David


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