Just got my copy of the Baseball Prospectus annual and I was glancing at the Reds section and thought I'd offer up a few interesting points from the book in case anyone was wondering. Haven't gotten as far as the pitchers yet, so maybe I'll do that later or someone else can if they feel so inclined.
Some things that jumped out at me:
- They have nice things to say about Denorfia, giving him a .263/.336/.419 line to go with 13 homers and a .256 EQA. 20% breakout and a 48% improvement.
- Dunn does well again, .263/.393/.558 line with 41 homers and a .313 EQA. 0% attrition rate, 24% breakout, 10% collapse, and 67% improve. Good stuff.
-EdE. is another Red who does well in BP's eyes, though they make a note of Narron's Dusty Baker-ish affinity for the vets. 22 homers, 75 RBI's, a .275/.344/.485 line, with a breakout of 43% and a 63% improve. Top comparable is Eric Chavez in case you were interested.
- Junior gets a .281/367/.541 line with 29 homers and a .299 EQA. BP sees just a shade over 500 PA's for Griffey.
- Austin Kearns: .275/.367/.510, 21 homers, EQA of .292, top comparables are Pat Burrell and Dale Murphy, not bad.
-They see a bit of a backslide for Felipe, a .266/.338/.433 line, 15 homers, an EQA of .260 and his VORP is cut in half, down to 21.7. A 24% breakout and a 46% improve.
-Wily Mo Pena: pretty much a repeat of his 2004 season from a HR, RBI, PA perspective, but his line of .282/.345/.558 is significantly better than '04 and a huge leap from last year. EQA of .292.
The overview portion can be summed up quite nicely by saying that DanO set the entire organization back several years and did nothing to improve the farm system, which was thought to be his forte. My favorite line: "The Cincinnati player development system is worthy of the term "farm" only in the sense that the Stalinist collectives of the 1930's Ukraine were a farm system - they caused millions to starve to death."