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Thread: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

  1. #31
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    years of past experiences goes into scouting, relating successes and failures seen in the past to aspects of new players.
    Yeah and those years can be acquired well before you hit the age of 18. Watch baseball. Pay attention. Big deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    I figured out Bill James in about half an hour.
    And I figured out Felipe Lopez was at least two years away after watching him in AAA in 2002.

    I'm not claiming any of this stuff is hard. Yet there's huge numbers of folks who seem wholly unable to do it. That's probably why scouts don't get paid much.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  3. #32
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Yeah and those years can be acquired well before you hit the age of 18. Watch baseball. Pay attention. Big deal.



    And I figured out Felipe Lopez was at least two years away after watching him in AAA in 2002.
    ... and I told everyone EE would be the cornerstone of the Rob Bell trade after watching ONE game of his at single A Dayton.

    On the other hand, I can't look at a pitcher and tell you if he is going to amount to anything or not. The statistics will carry me much farther in evaluating a pitcher in that regard.

    GL

  4. #33
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I'm not claiming any of this stuff is hard.
    if you can figure out a tip, then you can figure out the stats part -- does your batter get on base more than 40 percent of the time against good pitching? Does he K less than a quarter of the time? Does your pitcher K a batter an inning, walk less than three a game against good competition?

    but a scout has to predict which waitress will be American Idol in 10 years. To be good at that is hard.

    (and this is coming from someone whose record on FeLo is VERY good)

    CFO of my medical school just left for his dream job: to scout for the Jays. I'm predicting a painful time for Toronto

  5. #34
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    if you can figure out a tip, then you can figure out the stats part -- does your batter get on base more than 40 percent of the time against good pitching? Does he K less than a quarter of the time? Does your pitcher K a batter an inning, walk less than three a game against good competition?
    I agree it's basic stuff. Yet I'm still amazed at how many paid baseball people ignore those basics time and again. I'll believe that understanding this stuff is a commodity when the industry makes it a commodity. Oddly it's still radical thinking in many organizations.

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    but a scout has to predict which waitress will be American Idol in 10 years. To be good at that is hard.
    The number of folks who are actually good at it is awfully small compared to the number of folks who are paid to do it and bring no particular ability to the job. So I'll state it again - someone with some basic stats acumen can spot the same athleticism that most scouts pick up on without much training or trouble. That person won't be Paul Krichell, but he/she will grasp obvious athleticism when it's on display.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #35
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    if you can figure out a tip, then you can figure out the stats part -- does your batter get on base more than 40 percent of the time against good pitching? Does he K less than a quarter of the time? Does your pitcher K a batter an inning, walk less than three a game against good competition?
    It helps to know that a tip needs to be calculated. Besides, its all easy once someone shows you how to do it and why its important, the trick is to be the first (and only) ones doing it and use that to your advantage. You won't get that by teaching your scouts how to calulate OBP.

    You basically need an R&D department, part of which should be statistical analysis of the drafting, development, and rating of players. Part of should probably be figuring out what your scouts should be looking at. It should go much, much deeper, but thats a start.

    but a scout has to predict which waitress will be American Idol in 10 years. To be good at that is hard.

    (and this is coming from someone whose record on FeLo is VERY good)

    CFO of my medical school just left for his dream job: to scout for the Jays. I'm predicting a painful time for Toronto
    ... given that its so difficult to do, I'd think organizations would be open to anything that could help them do so. Obviously, some aren't.

    GL

  7. #36
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    I think that "all" you need are great scouts carrying 18% tip charts

    giving out the tip chart's the easy part. It doesn't take a department or even an employee. You can even get a consultant to do that for you (I'm available, BTW)

    Figuring out which scouts can see Mario Soto out of a hundred Alex Farfans and a thousand Ezubial Eyorroxys is hard.

  8. #37
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    if you can figure out a tip, then you can figure out the stats part -- does your batter get on base more than 40 percent of the time against good pitching? Does he K less than a quarter of the time? Does your pitcher K a batter an inning, walk less than three a game against good competition?
    And yet, if you went out player hunting with your eyes, a tip chart, and the criteria you listed above, you'd be ruling out many significant viable candidates for your team. You might not realize why that's true, but it is.

    It's unfortunate that much of the current debate degenerates into the kind of drivel spouted by "Baseball Executive". It's also disappointing to see a continued thrust into the realm of "statistical analysis is easy". It's not, but we continue to see that contention in print while your local "Baseball Executive" grabs a Tony Womack for "Win-Efficient" negative Run Scoring. Oh, and the KC Royals still exist.

    And yet, we continue to hear that statistical analysis is easy. All that's telling us is that there are a TON of folks drawing scouting and front office MLB paychecks who are too dumb to figure out that which you think you learned in half an hour. But then, it appears that you'd eliminate batters from consideration if they K more than once every four AB, so your half hour was less productive than it could have been. No mention of the importance of OBP composition. No identification that ground ball rates don't necessarily equate with HR propensity. Sorry, princeton. Those kind of mistakes are all too typical of the "stats are easy" crowd.

    "Baseball Executive's" opinion divergence comment was another example of common rhetoric you'll hear from folks who have no understanding of appropriate statistical modeling and application. Just another attempt to debase that which they don't understand while, at the same time, trying to tell us that they're able to- as a group- do the same thing the "statheads" can do. It's a "well, duh" commentary that don't make sense.

    I'd love to have the following conversation:

    Baseball Executive: "The stathead crowd does not have opinion divergence."

    Me: "Depends on what you mean. Let's face it- at some point facts are facts and if you get a bunch of smart people in a room, they'll generally agree on the facts."

    Baseball Executive: "Well, duh! Of course you all like high OBP power hitters who stay healthy. We all do too. That ain't hard!"

    Me: "So, if you like all the same players we do, wouldn't that mean you have your own opinion divergence problem? And if we all agree on good player versus bad player, why are you arguing?"

    Baseball Executive: "Well, the reality is that there's never been that much difference between the guys that the scouts like, and the guys that the statheads like. It's really just a question of degree."

    Me: "Oh, sure. I completely understand. It's why you guys pay crappy players millions of dollars to play baseball when we wouldn't."

    <End conversation as Steel dodges a fist>

    But that's the nuts and bolts of it. The more rhetoric tossed out there by the "Baseball Executive", the more warped and ridiculous the words get. Illogical tripe backed by nothing but an incessant need to feel that the traditional scouting community has some kind of secret code that cannot be unlocked by those who have a much better understanding of how past performance (i.e. "retrospective") directly relates to future performance.

    And the "no competitive advantage" stuff is just plain garbage. Anyone here who doesn't think that Oakland or Cleveland have a competitive advantage over KC or Cinci (particularly during the O'Brien regime) or Washington is just plain nuts. That advantage is centered around the kind of R&D gonelong mentioned plus the respective teams' ability to understand and utilize objective data.

    Not too difficult, I think, to figure out that both scouts and analysis are necessary tools. Both have their respective difficulties and I'm not going to get into a debate about the perceived difficulty level of each. But, man, am I getting tired of being told over and over again how something that's very hard is so very easy to people who fail to truly understand it.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  9. #38
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    The farther up the food chain you move, the more the balance shifts to statistical analysis.

    There's not a lot the numbers can tell me about a high school kid playing in a metal bat league 3 or 4 times a week.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

  10. #39
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62
    There's not a lot the numbers can tell me about a high school kid playing in a metal bat league 3 or 4 times a week.
    True, that's where you get back to the raw athleticism and, sadly, groupthink (which is often how teams confirm that they're seeing something that's real).

    Though there are some trends you can track. For instance, there seems to be a high correlation between overall athletic talent and prep left-handers who pan out. It's one of the reasons why Scott Elbert interests me more than Chad Billingsley.

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    Figuring out which scouts can see Mario Soto out of a hundred Alex Farfans and a thousand Ezubial Eyorroxys is hard.
    Except you and I both know the scout who found Mario Soto likely endorsed hundreds of Farfans to go with him. Though Mike Keenan, who spotted something in Travis Wood last spring that others missed, intrigues me.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #40
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: BP 2006: Reds Hitters

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    I think that "all" you need are great scouts carrying 18% tip charts
    Until your competition comes out with a chart that not only figures out the tip, but sorts out the best restuarants to eat at.

    giving out the tip chart's the easy part. It doesn't take a department or even an employee. You can even get a consultant to do that for you (I'm available, BTW)
    Well, if you assume all that can be known is already known thats a great idea. No need to check on those new fangled gas engines when you already are making the best buggies money can buy.

    Figuring out which scouts can see Mario Soto out of a hundred Alex Farfans and a thousand Ezubial Eyorroxys is hard.
    I'd be using my R&D department to figure out not only who those guys are, but how I can teach what they know to other guys. And if I can't teach it to them, can I measure it for them?

    For instance, you pretty much have to have a minimum amount of bat-speed to hit a MLB fastball. Why not set up a simple swing speed device (similar to those they use for golf) and have some guys take a bit of BP. Sure, you can't measure their pitch recognition, etc. but you could likely get a read for what type of swing speed is likely to be more successful. Measure your guys from A ball to retirement. How fast do guys lose their batspeed as they age. How many years before my aging LF can't get around on a fastball?

    Now pair that with a scout that can tell you if the guy can recognize pitches, etc. Now maybe I can generate effective scouts in 5 or 10 years instead of 20. Maybe I can get my lesser scouts to see the difference between Brandon Larson and Edwin Encarnacion or guage whether to give a guy a 2 year deal or go ahead and give him the 4 year deal.

    GL


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