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Thread: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

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    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    NOTE: This article is long. Here, I'm presenting only the portion that deals mainly with the Reds. For the complete article, I've provided the link.

    Two on Two: 2006 NL Central Preview
    By Rich Lederer & Bryan Smith

    Today we return to our 2006 previews, staying in the midwest. In our first installment of this feature, Aaron Gleeman and Cheat helped us preview the AL Central. Here to duke it out with Rich and Bryan are two very talented writers, Larry Borowsky from Viva El Birdos (a Cardinals blog) and John Hill via the Cub Reporter. Enjoy the latest segment...

    Bryan: It doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Graffanino would simply be piling on top of Todd Walker and Jerry Hairston. It would really be odd if the Reds and Cubs entered the year with six combined capable (though that's a strong word for Tony Womack) second basemen.

    John: Not at all, because the majority of Cub fans as I can see are at the very least satisfied with Todd Walker, who, while not great defensively and prone to saying a few stupid things, has a very solid bat for a second baseman.

    Larry: But Dusty doesn't like him. Or doesn't seem to.

    Bryan: I mentioned the Reds 2B problem, guys, and it's really just a bit in a damning resume that led to Dan O'Brien's firing. Before he left, he finally fixed the OF/1B logjam by acquiring mediocre pitcher Dave Williams, adding to the mediocrity and filth that makes up the pitching staff.

    Rich: I'm not so sure O'Brien fixed that logjam. Cincy still has four outfielders plus it looks as if Scott Hatteberg might start at first base.

    Bryan: Any reason for optimism in Cincy?

    Larry: Not for a while. They do have some of the most interesting young players in the division. Felipe Lopez looks good, ditto Edwin Encarnacion. Looks like Wily Mo Pena will be a good roto player if not necessarily a good real-life hitter.

    Rich: I'm not high on Pena at all. He struck out 224 times while accumulating 42 walks in approximately 700 plate appearances the past two years. PECOTA can fawn all over him as it wants, but I think he is overrated and unlikely to become a star player.

    John: I'm not entirely sure Felipe Lopez' bat is for real, given his historical propensity to strike out and he's also a butcher of a shortstop.

    Bryan: If ever there was a team that should be willing to sacrifice some defense for some above-average offense, it's the Reds. As a hitter, it seems Lopez, Jorge Cantu and Jhonny Peralta all broke through last year and enter the year with a lot of doubts, despite solid (if stagnated) minor league records. He's a good offensive player that probably won't get better than he was last year.

    Larry: Their players draw a lot of interest. Austin Kearns, Pena, Lopez, and Adam Dunn are all pretty coveted. And Dunn's contract is considered to be highly moveable. So perhaps there's an opportunity to restructure the talent on that team.

    John: The changes for the Reds have to come first via the farm system, and the outlook on that front isn't particularly bright at all. Trading away Adam Dunn isn't likely to be a profitable move for them.

    Larry: Anybody think they can move Ken Griffey Jr.?

    John: If there's even a chance of it, the Reds ought to be all over it. He's expensive, awful defensively, and it's only a matter of time, surely, before he gets injured again.

    Bryan: Yes, but I'm not sure the return will be worth it. Kearns needs to come out of the gate hot, and then Krivsky can trade him and insert Chris Denorfia into the outfield.

    Larry: Bryan, what do you think of Homer Bailey?

    Bryan: For the Reds to be successful, the changes need to come from the farm system, like Bailey. This team needs to find a way to keep young pitchers healthy, and maximize their potential. It has been awhile since they've done that. Bailey's arm is fantastic, but this organization needs to change its methodology before I'm a full-fledged believer.

    Larry: They do have a new owner who has ties to the Cardinal organization. If nothing else, I think a change in philosophy is in the offing in Cincinnati. Whether or not they will execute remains to be seen, but I would expect a new process of decision-making at the very least.

    Bryan: The Reds are, like a lot of teams in baseball, simply a few years away. That's really the easy way to conclude, right?

    John: Do you think enough of the Reds' system to say that they're only a few years away, Bryan? Or, do you have faith in their new GM to maintain a strong lineup while simultaneously finding all the pitching, and that's essentially about nine or ten members of that staff, that they need?

    Bryan: Well, I'm stretching the word "few," John. It's a weak system, and a creative GM will need to work a lot of magic to fix this team.

    Larry: With the wild card, one only needs to cobble together 88 wins to make the playoffs. And that can be done with a couple of decent trades, one free-agent pickup, and an unexpected year from one prospect. I could easily see them being competitive again by 2009 -- why not?

    Bryan: After seeing what Doug Melvin has done in Milwaukee, I'll believe anything.

    Rich: Oh, the Reds can be turned around. But it won't happen overnight, and it won't be easy. It's gonna take time and patience. Unfortunately, most of the talent at the big-league level is at the wrong end of the defensive spectrum, the pitching staff could be the worst in baseball, and the minor-league system is bereft of talent.

    Bryan: The Pirates are another team a few years away, but seem to be the opposite of the Reds. There is a lot of hope in a young pitching staff that showed promise in 2005, but the offensive foundation isn't there. Your takes on the Bucs?

    John: Put it this way, I'd rather be the Pirates than the Reds right now.

    http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...two_2006_1.php
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

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    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    The bolded statment makes my stomach churn because AK and WMP need to play every day.

    I certainly hope this is not the ultimate reason that the Reds signed Hatteberg and that they'll surprise everyone by starting him. It doesn't help; it hinders. I think the Reds should rely on a phrase from the Hippocratic Oath... first, do no harm.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    John: Put it this way, I'd rather be the Pirates than the Reds right now.

    Ouch...But definately true.

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    Lover of Trivialities Doc. Scott's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Someone's just not paying attention. I have no idea where any "analyst" would look at what's happened and conclude that Scott Hatteberg will be the Reds' starting first baseman. Ridiculous.

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Quote Originally Posted by Caseyfan21
    Ouch...But definately true.
    I don't see it.

    Their pitching may be better than the reds but their lineup sucks and they just restocked with a bunch of old players over the offseason.

    IMO Jason Bay and Casey are the only guys that they have that would be likely to start for the Reds.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Quote Originally Posted by Doc. Scott
    Someone's just not paying attention. I have no idea where any "analyst" would look at what's happened and conclude that Scott Hatteberg will be the Reds' starting first baseman. Ridiculous.
    Some of Narron's comments make me think he will be, why does he need so much work to stay "fresh"?

    I'm a little concerned.
    Go Gators!

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    I don't see it.

    Their pitching may be better than the reds but their lineup sucks and they just restocked with a bunch of old players over the offseason.

    IMO Jason Bay and Casey are the only guys that they have that would be likely to start for the Reds.
    I think the point they were driving at is it's easier to builld an offense where none exists than to build a pitching staff where none exists.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I think the point they were driving at is it's easier to builld an offense where none exists than to build a pitching staff where none exists.
    while that may be true (I believe it) I still think the Pirates are inept and going nowhere.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    while that may be true (I believe it) I still think the Pirates are inept and going nowhere.
    I agree in terms of this year, but there's probably a regime change coming in Pittsburgh and if the new regime understands how to build an offense to go with the pitching Littlefield will hand over, then the Pirates could be in the respectable ranks by 2008 or so.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I agree in terms of this year, but there's probably a regime change coming in Pittsburgh and if the new regime understands how to build an offense to go with the pitching Littlefield will hand over, then the Pirates could be in the respectable ranks by 2008 or so.
    yeah, Littlefield has been somewhat of an enigma. He seems to have done pretty well with pitching but his grasp of what constitutes offense is, well, offensive.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    There is absolutely no way that Hatteberg starts at first base. Wayne K brought him in for one thing and one thing only to spell a player every now and than. As far as this review goes more of the same. It's getting to be a broken record with these guys. No pitching, good offense, trade Kearns, Griffey, and Dunn and than wait until 2009 to be competitive. When 2009 rolls around they will probably rip us for trading Kearns, Griffey, and Dunn.

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    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Now I'm even more worried as Adam seems to be playing less and less at first base.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

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    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Is an opening day infield of Hatteberg, Womack, Lopez, and Aurilia really out of the realm of possibility?

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM
    Is an opening day infield of Hatteberg, Womack, Lopez, and Aurilia really out of the realm of possibility?
    Nope.

    It'd would be solidly scrappy.
    Go Gators!

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    Re: Baseball Analysts 2006 NL Central Preview (3/8)

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Nope.

    It'd would be solidly scrappy.
    I can only imagine the outrage on this board if that's the infield Narron puts out there.


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