Exactly --- you can be hitting 3/20 (.150) and then go 2/4, 1/3, 2/4 and suddenly you're hitting .267.
In fact, in ST you should pretty much throw stats completely out the window and rely solely on scouting. As far as the "can you really expect a .040 hitter to suddenly go to .260 in the regular season?" question, the answer is absoutlely yes. While I don't have the time to actually run the numbers, that if you look at a .260 hitters season, you will find at least 1, and probably multiple streaks where they hit under .100. You'll also find streaks where they hit .500.
ST should be about mechanics and being in shape. If a guy has 1,000 major league (or even minor league) at bats, trust that. Looking at DeWayne Wise's history for example tells me that even if he's having a breakout year, he probably wouldn't be as good over 400 major league at bats as Chris Denorfia. Now perhaps a scout would point something out that counters this, but the minor league stats tell me nothing.
