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Thread: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

  1. #1
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    Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    If, and it's a big if, some trading partner was willing to give up one of its starting pitchers -- and of course which starter would be a huge factor -- and if their need was one of the Reds' regulars, the loss of which one of the starting 8 Reds would have the least negative impact upon the team's performance?

    For the sake of simplicity, consider just last season's OBP + SLG:

    Ken Griffey Jr. -- 0.946
    Adam Dunn -- 0.927
    Javier Valentín -- 0.883
    Felipe López -- 0.838
    Jason LaRue -- 0.806
    Wily Mo Peña -- 0.796
    Chris Denorfia -- 0.785
    Austin Kearns -- 0.785
    Rich Aurilia -- 0.782
    Edwin Encarnación -- 0.744
    Ryan Freel -- 0.743
    Jacob Cruz -- 0.734
    Tony Womack -- 0.556

    At first glance, looking at the list from the top down, it looks like Valentin was more productive on offense than was LaRue, but then one must recognize Jason's superiority over Javier on defense.

    Next we see Denorfia (with 10 times fewer AB than Kearns) tied with Austin in OPS. Could Chris and/or Cruz, McCracken, Rhodes, Wise supplant "Ears" if the Reds got the right pitcher in return?

    Farther down the list is Aurilia's OPS topping that of both Freel and Womack, theoretically making those latter two possible trade bait.

    Little of the foregoing considers defense, speed, age, or whether or not last season was typical of future performance, but who can replace whom should be considered when it comes time to trade a position guy for pitching.

    Isn't there a quantative measure of player replacement value that has been discussed on this board in the past? Could that be useful in trade planning?

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    Member RedsFan75's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Positioin Player?

    There is a VORP but I don't recall how to calculate, but just based on the numbers you've thrown out, I would dangle Wily Mo for a pitcher, knowing that Kearns and Denorfia would be very capable of keeping the Outfield under control.

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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Positioin Player?

    peddle everyone

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    At this point, I'm definitely willing to cut bait with either Kearns, Pena or both. While both have the potential to be very good players, I don't think either is crucial to our success.

    If by some chance we were able to land a Scott Olsen, Scott Baker, Matt Cain, type pitcher, I think we'd be stupid not to do it. Denforia should be capable offensively and is proving to be a plus defender, we have plenty of depth to cover backups and our best position prospect, Jay Bruce, while still 3 years away, is also an OF.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    Anyone who thinks Valentin is a superior offensive player to LaRue is being blinded by the brief flash of okay-ness that Valentin exhibited last year. LaRue has been one of the most consistent offensive catchers during the last 5 years, Valentin was chump change until the second half of 2005. There's no question who I would select if the battle was between those two for an everyday starting role.

    I think offers should be entertained for everyone but Dunn and EdE--and, yes, I'm including FeLo. I think even Dunn or EdE could be moved if the right product was offered in return, but I doubt any team would be willing to part with what I would consider to be "fair value" for either of those two.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    Problem is the Reds need to at least trade for the pitching equivalent of Pena and Kearns - young pitchers with plenty of upside or unfullfilled promise. And I just don't see teams willing to make that kind of swap. To trade any of the young players for stop-gap starting pitching just doesn't make any sense to me.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    Anyone who thinks Valentin is a superior offensive player to LaRue is being blinded by the brief flash of okay-ness that Valentin exhibited last year.
    See The Hardball Times analysis of the Reds catching tandem posted yesterday.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    If, and it's a big if, some trading partner was willing to give up one of its starting pitchers -- and of course which starter would be a huge factor -- and if their need was one of the Reds' regulars, the loss of which one of the starting 8 Reds would have the least negative impact upon the team's performance?
    I think the Reds would have to be very careful in making such a decision for a top notch pitcher.... because they need more than that one person to become a winner.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

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    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    See The Hardball Times analysis of the Reds catching tandem posted yesterday.
    Yeah, I have no problems with the reds giving Valentin playing time. My key word, however was "consistent." What makes one think that Valentin is due to repeat the successes he had during the second half of 2005? I'd be thrilled if he did, but in his previous 4 seasons featuring part-time action he posted OBP of .247, .313, .254 and .293. He nearly doubled his career HR total, and slugged 140 points higher than his previous season high.

    Jason has been a model of offensive consistency during the past 5 years, so in spite of Valentin posting marginally better numbers last season, I see no reason to proclaim Valentin a superior offensive player to LaRue. Another year of numbers akin to what Valentin did last year, and I would be willing to reconsider.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    A lot of catchers mature late offensively and Valentin has hit well(and with power) in the minors at times. I guess this season will determine if he has risen to a new level of performance.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  12. #11
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Positioin Player?

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    peddle everyone
    Only way to fix this thing for good.
    Go Gators!

  13. #12
    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    I wouldn't wait til May 1st to deal WMP if he gets off to a good start.
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

  14. #13
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio
    I wouldn't wait til May 1st to deal WMP if he gets off to a good start.
    the problem as always is that it takes two to tango.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  15. #14
    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    the problem as always is that it takes two to tango.
    Understood, but my guess is one of WMP's patented hot streaks could draw some interest. The difference this time might have more to do not w/ a dance partner, but rather the individual now in charge in Cincinnati.
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

  16. #15
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    Re: Who's The Most Expendable Red Position Player?

    Denorfia has made Austin's days in the Nati numbered, IMO. And IMO, thats a good thing.
    I hope it's never sunny in Philly again.


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