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Thread: Bailey good enough to start?

  1. #76
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Maybe sooner than we think, but hopefully not sooner than he should be; if he's really good, it would be nice to have him around for awhile. If he's brought up too soon, he won't be.
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  3. #77
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Traderumor, have you ever seen him pitch? You dont strike out 125 guys in 103 innings if you dont have good stuff.

    dmith, no way am I ever saying you should put him in Cincinnati anytime soon. I do think he would be better than Milton though.
    Ah yes, the objective evidence says that Homer is a suspect more than a prospect, so now we go to the subjective "has stuff" and "have you seen him pitch." Luke Hudson supposedly had "stuff" too. He just didn't know where his "stuff" was going. And I saw him pitch.

    See, that's the beauty of baseball--you don't need to have some special "eye" for talent to look at a minor league pitcher's numbers and make an initial evaluation of his performance. Right now, Homer has very little value either to the Reds or a potential trade partner because there is nothing other than the subjective "stuff" in his favor right now.

    And here's the real challenge for you. Apparently, you have seen him pitch and I admittedly have not. Yet, just looking at his performance, I can tell you that he does not command of his pitches, which you acknowledge control is his achilles heel right now. So was I just a really good guesser?

    As for the high K rate, I think I acknowledged in more than one post in this thread that is the one thing he has going for him. But a high K rate alone is not enough. Even A ball hitters showed that. Way too wild and way too hittable to be our stud in training.

    But, hey, if someone buys into the hype machine that Narron and others have going full force, maybe we can get something useful in a trade. Otherwise, I guess we'll just keep on crossing our fingers that he figures out how to get control of his "stuff."
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  4. #78
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    The bottom line, from where I sit, is this: if I'm a ballclub with serious financial considerations every season, the last thing I want is my #1 pick running his arbitration/free-agency clock learning how to be a ballplayer in the majors.

    He could be better than all 5 starters the Reds plan to take North, but if he's going to live up to his hype, I want some DOMINATING years out of him as a memebr of the Reds, not just a few middling years and then reach his prime wearing some other uniform because he hit free agency before he finished developing.
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  5. #79
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
    The bottom line, from where I sit, is this: if I'm a ballclub with serious financial considerations every season, the last thing I want is my #1 pick running his arbitration/free-agency clock learning how to be a ballplayer in the majors.

    He could be better than all 5 starters the Reds plan to take North, but if he's going to live up to his hype, I want some DOMINATING years out of him as a memebr of the Reds, not just a few middling years and then reach his prime wearing some other uniform because he hit free agency before he finished developing.
    I'd rather the Reds not sweat arb clocks at all if it means creating the best 25-man roster year in and year out.

    But I don't want the Reds to start Bailey; that would be wack. I want them to bring him along a la Oswalt--out of the bullpen. This season, preferably.

  6. #80
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Well, nobody has to worry about it now anyway as he was sent back to the minors camp today.

    As for not knowing where it is going..Nuxhall said today during the broadcast he was very impressed with and the kid knew what he wanted to do with his pitches...ala 5 Ks in 2 innings. Also leads the team in Ks. I used to pitch and you don't do that w/o some form of command. Maybe it is a fluke this spring but there is such a thing as turning the corner over the winter. I hope he has but as my mother-in-law once said, "Hope in one hand and sh$# in the other then see which one fills up first."

  7. #81
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Quote Originally Posted by George Foster
    Why is it OK to let a star player out of High School, get his lumps in the NBA and its criminal to let a star baseball player do in in Major League baseball?
    simple, the guys has pitched one season of pro ball in which he threw a little over 100 innings. He does not have the arm strength built up to pitch a major lrague season. Putting him in the majors is a recipe for an arm injury. He has neither the command or stamina to be effective at the majors yet.
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  8. #82
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Quote Originally Posted by buckshotrod
    Well, nobody has to worry about it now anyway as he was sent back to the minors camp today.

    As for not knowing where it is going..Nuxhall said today during the broadcast he was very impressed with and the kid knew what he wanted to do with his pitches...ala 5 Ks in 2 innings. Also leads the team in Ks.
    That is a dubious achievement on this squad. Sort of like being the best hockey player in Paraguay. We also have to remember that he is a 19 year old kid. Not only is he still developing physically but he is also developing mentally. WOY mentioned David Clyde earlier. One of the problems with Clyde is that he was partying too much. Who is Homer going to hang out with after games? I suppose he could stay in his hotel room and watch SpectraVision but would it not be better for him to be around people his own age for at least a few years? Someone asked about the difference between high school kids who go straight into the NBA and Homer. One difference is that of all the HS kids that get drafted, only a select few make it big. Some of the others were not talented enough or they started hanging out with the wrong crowd or they did not work hard enough or they got injured. I would rather see a 19 year old position player in the major leagues than a 19 year old pitcher. I fear that the organization is so hungry for pitching they are going to bring him north next spring and actually start him. I really would not mind them bringing him up for the last few weeks of the season this year but with the stipulation that he does not pitch. Of course that would mean putting him on the 40 man roster and start burning his options. I am not quite sure when he has to be on the 40 man roster but I would rather they not put him on there any sooner than they have to.
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  9. #83
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Bailey gets good gauge of progress
    Former Reds top pick heads to Minors feeling good
    By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

    SARASOTA, Fla. -- All Reds top pitching prospect Homer Bailey wanted from his first big league Spring Training was to see how well he stacked up against Major League hitters.

    The answer: quite well.

    Part of the latest round of roster cuts made Sunday, the 19-year-old Bailey can head to the Minor League clubhouse knowing he didn't squander any of his chances.

    "I came here and, like Ray Charles said, 'Let it do what it do, baby,'" Bailey said Saturday about his performances this spring after he threw a strong 2 2/3 innings with five strikeouts against Pittsburgh.

    In four games, totaling 7 1/3 innings, the Reds' 2004 first-round draft pick posted a 0-0 record and 2.45 ERA. He walked three and left camp leading the club with 10 strikeouts.

    "I'm real happy he finished up with the outing he had [Saturday]," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "I thought that was a real positive for him. I think it's a real good confidence builder for him as he heads back to Minor League camp to get ready for the season. You always like to see a young guy like that go out on a positive note."

    With the fifth starter role up for grabs between Justin Germano and Michael Gosling in case Paul Wilson's shoulder isn't ready in April, Reds manager Jerry Narron said he was "looking for a guy who has the best chance to get the most people out."

    This spring, that has been Bailey. But Narron knew taking the kid north was not an option, yet.

    "Sometimes, you have to do what's best for the long haul and not short-term," Narron said.

    Bailey, who will begin the regular season at high Class A Sarasota, was aware Saturday that he probably was headed out of camp.

    "I know I still have to work things that I need to work on," he said. "Because of my age and lack of experience, I understand where they're coming from by putting me where they're going to put me. The best thing I can do right now is keep the right frame of mind and keep doing whatever it is I'm doing. Don't change anything."

    On the move: Reliever and 2003 first-round pick Ryan Wagner entered Sunday having allowed just one base runner over his last six appearances. Wagner was 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in seven games, totaling seven innings, this spring.

    Names in the game: Former Reds great George Foster has been working with big-league and Minor League hitters since coming to camp as a guest instructor last week. Foster said he was trying to help young hitters and outfielders with their approach to the game.

    What they're saying: "I have been very impressed with him. He does not look like a 19-year-old kid out there. He competes extremely well. He's very composed. He still has a long way to go. He doesn't want to just make the Major League team. He wants to be a great Major League pitcher." -- Narron, on Bailey

    Mark Sheldon is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

    http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASAp...=.jsp&c_id=cin

  10. #84
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Did anyone see the Reds special on Tom Seaver. Back in 1969, Gil Hodges took one look at his pitching staff in spring training and declared Seaver as one of his starter's
    Seaver was a on the fence prospect when he was at JC, alot of scouts didn't like him, after JC he went to USC and got his motion together, that's when he became Tom Terrific big time pitching prospect, by the time Hodges ever saw Tom Seaver he was 22 years old and had pitched in a big time college program.

    There's a world of difference from the age 18/19 to 22/23,
    Here's the difference between what you can expect out of guys 21-22 and guys under 20.

    Since 1945.



    AGE <= 20
    ERA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

    Code:
    GAMES STARTED                 YEAR     GS       ERA    SO/9 IP   BB/9 IP    RSAA      AGE    
    1    Gary Nolan               1970       37     0.79     6.49     3.44       25       22   
    T2   Don Gullett              1973       30     0.16     6.04     2.72       -4       22   
    T2   Jeff Russell             1984       30     -.67     5.00     3.22       -8       22   
    4    Herm Wehmeier            1949       29     -.65     3.38     4.94      -19       22   
    5    Ross Grimsley            1972       28     0.40     3.60     2.28        2       22   
    6    Frank Pastore            1980       27     0.34     5.36     2.05        9       22   
    T7   Ross Grimsley            1971       26     -.10     3.74     2.40       -5       21   
    T7   Wayne Simpson            1970       26     1.04     6.09     4.14       23       21   
    9    Herm Wehmeier            1948       24    -1.92     3.43     4.59      -28       21   
    10   Ken Hunt                 1961       22     0.06     4.96     4.37        3       22   
    11   Wayne Simpson            1971       21    -1.30     4.69     5.92      -19       22   
    12   Jim O'Toole              1959       19    -1.22     4.74     5.09      -14       22   
    T13  Jim Maloney              1962       17     0.42     8.22     5.17        6       22   
    T13  Kent Peterson            1948       17     -.64     4.20     3.88       -6       22   
    T13  Kent Peterson            1947       17     -.20     4.62     3.67       -9       21   
    T13  Buddy Lively             1947       17     -.62     3.80     4.61      -13       22   
    T13  Scott Scudder            1989       17     -.98     5.92     5.47       -9       21   
    18   Don Gullett              1972       16     -.48     6.40     2.87      -12       21   
    T19  John Roper               1994       15     -.28     4.99     2.93       -3       22   
    T19  John Roper               1993       15    -1.58     6.08     4.05      -14       21   
    T19  Jay Hook                 1959       15    -1.18     4.22     4.44       -8       22   
    T19  Mike LaCoss              1978       15     -.92     2.91     4.31       -8       22   
    T19  Gary Nolan               1969       15     0.05     6.85     3.30        0       21   
    24   Jay Tibbs                1984       14     0.73     3.58     2.95       11       22   
    25   Tom Carroll              1974       13     -.06     4.27     5.08       -1       21   
    T26  Jim Maloney              1961       11     -.33     5.40     5.59       -2       21   
    T26  Billy McCool             1967       11     -.06     7.70     5.20        2       22   
    T28  Jeff Russell             1983       10     0.61     5.27     2.90        6       21   
    T28  Scott Scudder            1990       10    -1.10     5.27     3.77       -9       22   
    T28  Eddie Erautt             1947       10    -1.00     3.25     4.01      -18       22   
    31   Frank Pastore            1979        9     -.51     5.95     2.17       -7       21   
    T32  Tom Carroll              1975        7    -1.35     2.68     4.98       -7       22   
    T32  C.J. Nitkowski           1995        7    -1.94     5.01     4.18       -7       22   
    T32  Dennys Reyes             1998        7     -.19    10.24     6.28       -1       21   
    T35  Josh Hall                2003        5    -2.28     6.57     5.47       -6       22   
    T35  Bobby Ayala              1992        5     -.84     7.14     4.03       -3       22   
    T35  Ron Robinson             1984        5     0.87     5.45     2.95        5       22   
    T38  Sammy Ellis              1962        4    -2.81     8.68     9.32       -9       21   
    T38  Frank Smith              1950        4     0.28     5.44     3.86        5       22   
    T38  Elizardo Ramirez         2005        4    -4.23     3.63     4.03      -10       22   
    T38  Manny Sarmiento          1978        4     -.80     5.09     3.82      -10       22   
    T42  Curt Lyons               1996        3     -.28     7.88     3.94        0       21   
    T42  Milt Wilcox              1971        3     0.15     4.36     3.53        0       21   
    T44  Mario Soto               1978        1     1.08     6.50     6.50        2       21   
    T44  Dennys Reyes             1999        1     0.77    10.51     5.69        5       22   
    T44  Jim O'Toole              1958        1     2.67     5.14     6.43        2       21   
    T44  Mel Behney               1970        1     -.45     1.80     7.20        0       22   
    T44  Jay Hook                 1958        1    -8.05    15.00     6.00       -3       21  
    
    
    
    
    GAMES STARTED                 YEAR     GS       ERA    SO/9 IP   BB/9 IP    RSAA      AGE    
    1    Gary Nolan               1967       32     0.80     8.17     2.46       27       19   
    2    Don Gullett              1971       31     0.83     4.42     2.64       16       20   
    3    Gary Nolan               1968       22     0.58     6.66     2.94       18       20   
    T4   Mario Soto               1977       10    -1.43     6.53     3.86      -10       20   
    T4   Jim Maloney              1960       10     -.88     6.75     5.20       -6       20   
    T6   Claude Osteen            1960        3    -1.30     2.81     5.63       -7       20   
    T6   Billy McCool             1964        3     1.11     8.80     2.93       12       19   
    T8   Milt Wilcox              1970        2     1.64     5.24     2.82        4       20   
    T8   Herm Wehmeier            1945        2    -8.80     0.00     7.20       -5       18   
    T8   Billy McCool             1965        2     -.75    10.29     4.03       -7       20   
    T8   Jay Hook                 1957        2     -.62     5.40     7.20        0       20   
    T8   Don Gullett              1970        2     1.63     8.77     5.08       15       19

  11. #85
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Seaver also spent a year in the Marines out of high school. That was on the special too.
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  12. #86
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey good enough to start?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R
    Seaver also spent a year in the Marines out of high school. That was on the special too.
    Don't let Grady Fuson know that. Next thing you know, he'll be requiring that all San Diego pitching draft picks must enlist for two years.
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