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Thread: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Leaving aside the actual "was this a good deal" question, can we get some people's takes on what we can actually expect from Bronson over the next year? Much has been made in the other threads about his crazy low K/9 last year. However, even then he showed solid control and durability, worked deep in to games (especially by Reds standards), held runners very well, and kept the ball in the park.

    I don't have the time to dig up his DIPS numbers, etc., but what are some reasonable projections for him this year? Are Harang '05 like numbers a fair estimate? I'm still not sure what I think about the trade, but a league average starter for the next 3 years sure beats whoever he replaces...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    I don't care. PECOTA kinds of likes him but I am too POed at the thought of Hatteberg and Womack on the right side of the infield.
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    I don't care. PECOTA kinds of likes him but I am too POed at the thought of Hatteberg and Womack on the right side of the infield.
    Probably not what you are wanting, but I bet Aurlia gets a lot of time at 1B. That's why he's been playing there. Who knows, but I agree with you on Womack. I wish we didn't sign him.
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    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds1
    Probably not what you are wanting, but I bet Aurlia gets a lot of time at 1B. That's why he's been playing there. Who knows, but I agree with you on Womack. I wish we didn't sign him.
    I'd rather see Aurilia there than Hatteberg, but good Lord what a choice to have to make.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds1
    Probably not what you are wanting, but I bet Aurlia gets a lot of time at 1B.
    PECOTA likes Aurilia a lot better than hatteberg.
    Last edited by flyer85; 03-20-2006 at 06:48 PM.
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    Bunn-O-matic max venable's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    PECOTA likes Aurilia a lot better than hatteberg.
    Honestly, doesn't Aurilia at 1B pretty much equate to Sean Casey at 1B?

    Aurilia: .282 avg. 14 HR, 68 RBI in 114 games

    Casey: .312 avg. 9 HR, 58 RBI in 137 games

    I take it back...looks like Aurilia is an upgrade.
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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by max venable
    Honestly, doesn't Aurilia at 1B pretty much equate to Sean Casey at 1B?

    Aurilia: .282 avg. 14 HR, 68 RBI in 114 games

    Casey: .312 avg. 9 HR, 58 RBI in 137 games

    I take it back...looks like Aurilia is an upgrade.
    His Value Over Replacement Hugger is significantly less than Casey's and Smiles/9 is a definate regression.
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    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Here is his PECOTA

    13-10, 34G, 31GS, 200.3IP, 215H, 49BB, 120K, 25HR, 1.31WHIP, 4.43ERA

    I'd be pretty happy with those numbers

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    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    doesn't PECOTA adjust numbers for stadium effects? if so, wouldn't those numbers be slightly better pitching in Cincinnati as oppsosed to Boston?
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    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord
    doesn't PECOTA adjust numbers for stadium effects? if so, wouldn't those numbers be slightly better pitching in Cincinnati as oppsosed to Boston?
    The Davenport Translations used do compare the league and team factors but I'm not sure they use park factors. Even if they do, I'm not convinced Arroyo will pitch better in GABP given his righty-lefty splits. And remember, PECOTA was forcast for Arroyo pitching in Boston, not Cincinnati. Here are the '05 Park Indices per Bill James.

    For the following stats: 100 is neutral - Under 100 favor the pitcher - Over 100 favors the hitters.

    2005 Park Indices

    Code:
    Park          HR   LHB-AVG   LHB-HR
    Fenway Park   99     101       84
    GABP          121    111       127
    If the dudes pitching peripherals (K/9, K/BB, G/F) fall in line with his '05 numbers, he's in for a rude awakening at GABP. At best, they follow his '04 numbers and then he's still a #4 or 5 on a good staff.
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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    Arroyo - how will he pitch?
    Overhand

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord
    doesn't PECOTA adjust numbers for stadium effects? if so, wouldn't those numbers be slightly better pitching in Cincinnati as oppsosed to Boston?
    I'm guessing the park-adjust would involve dropping the OB totals and raising the SLG.
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    I'm guessing the park-adjust would involve dropping the OB totals and raising the SLG.
    I assume we should expect a league adjustment too???
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    I assume we should expect a league adjustment too???
    Good point. DHs do hit better than pitchers.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    I wonder if WayneK wants to play Womack to see him crash hard to prove a point.

    He's gone after this year (or earlier).
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

  15. #15
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath
    I wonder if WayneK wants to play Womack to see him crash hard to prove a point.

    He's gone after this year (or earlier).
    What would that prove?

    He isn't going to try and crash anyone. Sometimes 1 player is the difference between a L and W, and we are going to have to battle for every W.


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