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Thread: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

  1. #16
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    I'll say Arroyo's line looks something like this:

    30 GS
    210 IP
    220 H
    50 BB
    150 K
    4.25 ERA
    .740 OPSA

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  3. #17
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    Arroyo - how will he pitch?
    Bad.




    BAD.
    I hope it's never sunny in Philly again.

  4. #18
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    He'll throw some pitches, win some, lose some.
    Go Gators!

  5. #19
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    I'll say Arroyo's line looks something like this:

    30 GS
    210 IP
    220 H
    50 BB
    150 K
    4.25 ERA
    .740 OPSA
    If he does that then I would consider it a solid trade.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  6. #20
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
    If he does that then I would consider it a solid trade.
    If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

    Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

  7. #21
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord
    doesn't PECOTA adjust numbers for stadium effects? if so, wouldn't those numbers be slightly better pitching in Cincinnati as oppsosed to Boston?
    The Davenport Translations used do compare the league and team factors but I'm not sure they use park factors. Even if they do, I'm not convinced Arroyo will pitch better in GABP given his righty-lefty splits. And remember, PECOTA was forcast for Arroyo pitching in Boston, not Cincinnati. Here are the '05 Park Indices per Bill James.

    For the following stats: 100 is neutral - Under 100 favor the pitcher - Over 100 favors the hitters.

    2005 Park Indices

    Code:
    Park          HR   LHB-AVG   LHB-HR
    Fenway Park   99     101       84
    GABP          121    111       127
    If the dudes pitching peripherals (K/9, K/BB, G/F) fall in line with his '05 numbers, he's in for a rude awakening at GABP. At best, they follow his '04 numbers and then he's still a #4 or 5 on a good staff.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  8. #22
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath
    If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

    Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.
    And that "snot" was possibly gonna be guys like Gosling, Standridge, or Germano. YUCK!
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  9. #23
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath
    If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

    Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.
    And that "snot" was possibly gonna be guys like Gosling, Standridge, or Germano. YUCK!

    I agree. If Arroyo puts up numbers similar to what FCB posts, then we should all be dancing a jig.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  10. #24
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC
    I agree. If Arroyo puts up numbers similar to what FCB posts, then we should all be dancing a jig.
    If Arroyo puts up 7.0 innings a start with a WHIP of 1.30 and still maintains an ERA of 4.25, I'll crap myself and then do a jig.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  11. #25
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath
    If he does that, I'll dance a jig.

    Because that sure beats whatever snot we toss out there before the deal.
    Aaron Harang.
    I hope it's never sunny in Philly again.

  12. #26
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2
    If Arroyo puts up 7.0 innings a start with a WHIP of 1.30 and still maintains an ERA of 4.25, I'll crap myself and then do a jig.
    Yeah, I just thought about it: he'll probably not average 7 innings a start, but probably 6 2/3, a more modesr improvement over last year's 6.41 innings per start.

    And I see no reason whatever that Arroyo can't throw up a 1.30 WHIP .740 OPSA in the NL Central.

  13. #27
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by TC81190
    Aaron Harang.
    That is sad that we can only mention one pitcher better than Arroyo.

    This is definitely an upgrade for our staff. He is replacing Mike Gosling or Justin Germano!

    Also consider that he had to face the Yankees a few times (haven't checked the number of games) and the Orioles. I know there is a league adjustment, but there is also a division adjustment necessary too.

  14. #28
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    If anything, Arroyo pushes Dave Williams to the fifth spot in the rotation.
    If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

  15. #29
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    Yeah, I just thought about it: he'll probably not average 7 innings a start, but probably 6 2/3, a more modesr improvement over last year's 6.41 innings per start.

    And I see no reason whatever that Arroyo can't throw up a 1.30 WHIP .740 OPSA in the NL Central.
    I was just trying to be funny but I hope your right about Arroyo. He switched leagues which should help but GABP isn't as pitcher friendly as Fenway and that's going to hurt him, especially against left handed batters. If his peripherals don't improve from '05, he's going to have a very difficult time avoiding a 5.00+ ERA.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  16. #30
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo - how will he pitch?

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    If anything, Arroyo pushes Dave Williams to the fifth spot in the rotation.
    What about Wilson? I was thinking this move makes it easier for the Reds to put Milton in the bullpen.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.


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