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Thread: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

  1. #1
    Telephone Sanitizer
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    Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    From this site.

    He ran 1,000 season simulations each with Diamond Mind, PECOTA, and ZiPS projections. The average number of wins for the Reds for each simulation: 73, 74, and 69, for an overall average of 72.

    Good news: He noted, however, that these simulations were run before the Arroyo-Pena trade. He said he did a run of 100 sims post-trade, and in those, the Reds gave up ~25 fewer runs, but scored ~10 fewer. That was based on Pena getting ~400 PA's per season.

    From that, it sounds like a net gain of about 1.5 wins this season. So, even if the trade comes back to bite the Reds in the butt in the future, at least in the short-term it looks like it's fine.

    BTW, the sims forecast the Reds to make the playoffs 1% of the time.

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  3. #2
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Golgafrinchan

    BTW, the sims forecast the Reds to make the playoffs 1% of the time.
    So, you're telling me there's a chance?!
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  4. #3
    Designated Threadkiller LincolnparkRed's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    I would like it more if this guy actually knew the names of the players in yesterdays trade. he keeps refering to someone named Brandon.
    Climbing down from the bridge, but keeping the torch lit until Dusty's fate is settled

  5. #4
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    1% - we still gotta chance.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  6. #5
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by LincolnparkRed
    I would like it more if this guy actually knew the names of the players in yesterdays trade. he keeps refering to someone named Brandon.
    From the comments people have posted to the site:

    "and the Brandon thing is a joke...a reference to A-Rod calling him Brandon after Arroyo hit him with the pitch that started the fight with Varitek."

    So now you know.

  7. #6
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Golgafrinchan
    "and the Brandon thing is a joke...a reference to A-Rod calling him Brandon after Arroyo hit him with the pitch that started the fight with Varitek."
    He still calls him Brandon. It's probably my favorite thing about A-Rod.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  8. #7
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Better then my sim, we lost 96 in it, and that was with me releasing Womack after a spectacular 5-70 start
    Go Gators!

  9. #8
    Lover of Trivialities Doc. Scott's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Bah! This is just like the crap in that Billy Beane book. I'm not havin' none of it.

  10. #9
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Better then my sim, we lost 96 in it, and that was with me releasing Womack after a spectacular 5-70 start
    You gave him 70 at-bats?

  11. #10
    Lover of Trivialities Doc. Scott's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Better then my sim, we lost 96 in it, and that was with me releasing Womack after a spectacular 5-70 start
    I read it as "We went 91-26 after releasing Womack."

  12. #11
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM
    You gave him 70 at-bats?
    I was trying to be Narron like
    Go Gators!

  13. #12
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Doc. Scott
    I read it as "We went 91-26 after releasing Womack."


    No..at bats
    Go Gators!

  14. #13
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    I want to see the player stats in the year we made the playoffs. What happened!? Was the NL Central similar to last year's NL West?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #14
    Lover of Trivialities Doc. Scott's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    I want to see the player stats in the year we made the playoffs. What happened!? Was the NL Central similar to last year's NL West?
    Tony Womack hit .270/.310/.370 with 114 steals in 165 attempts.

  16. #15
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Computer Simulations: Reds to win 72 in 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    I was trying to be Narron like
    Oh. You should have given him 300+ at-bats then.


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