Thinking of WMP, for his sake, in that pressure cooker, I hope he gets off to a good start. It will get brutal fast if he struggles through one of his whiff streaks.
Thinking of WMP, for his sake, in that pressure cooker, I hope he gets off to a good start. It will get brutal fast if he struggles through one of his whiff streaks.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
guttle, let's take a step back for a moment.Originally Posted by guttle11
The difference between a 4.50 ERA versus a 5.00 ERA is less than 15 Runs over the course of a 200 IP season. I can guarantee that the difference between 650 PA of Pena versus Hatteberg is more than 15 Runs.
And I'm being kind with a projection of a 4.50 ERA considering the warts on Arroyo. His K rate tanked last year. He's a fly ball pitcher coming into the GAB. He was BABIP lucky last year. Lefthanded hitters murdered him.
Best case scenario here is a wash at best. Realistic scenario is a Run Differential defecit. Worst case scenario (too probable for my liking) is an even bigger RD defecit.
When the best case scenario is the least likely to occur and is most probably a complete wash even if it happened, that's a trade you DON'T make.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
then dont. you think any of us or the reds care that you dont watch. i cant imagine you have anything better to do with your life seeing as you get this worked up over a trade
I'm hoping it is a short lived experiment
My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!
PECOTA predicts a bounceback season and a jump to .689
His last 2 full season(03 and 04) on defense at 1st are -12 and -14 FRAA.
Ask a comparision Casey was -11 and +10. A defensive downgrade.
WOmack was a -14 at 2b in 2004.
did you also take into account the runs wily mo costs us in the field?
Yes, because how the team does this year means everything. Even with Womack and Hatteberg playing more this team will be better. The rotation got better today. That means more wins.
Sorry that I don't enjoy every move the Reds make. Let's stop with the personal attacks, ok?
IMO, I'd rather have Hatteberg @ 1B than Casey. I like the idea of a rotation of Freel/Dunn/Hatteberg with Freel getting some time in the OF, Dunn @ 1B, or Dunn in LF, Hatteberg @ 1B.
I'd MUCH rather see Freel start @ 2B, Dunn @ 1B, and Denorfia in the OF, but I think we're overreacting about Hatteberg.
Not necessarily -- they've added two offensive black-holes to the lineup that will cost the team runs over the course of the year.
Although, if Arroyo pushes Mike "I'm destined for a double-digit ERA" Gosling out of the rotation, then I suppose it could perhaps mean an extra win or two.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
That's a fair point, but what else can they do, sit back and hope the guys in the minors develop well?
Wily Mo wasn't going to fit in with Krivsky's style. Why not trade him for a #2/3 starter that can get you 12-15 wins? Some say wait until his Value increases, but it's likely that Pena's value will never increase.
Pena, Pena, Pena, I have been hearing about this guy since the Yankees signed him 6 or 7 years ago. Tremendous power and potential to be a prolific power hitter but he strikes out a ton and can't play D. He really reminds me of Dave Kingman who had great power played for about 15 teams and couldn't play D .We have offense already we needed pitching Arroyo brings us 12 to 14 wins and 200 innings at a reduced rate. If a better deal was out their Wayne K would have done it. Guess what no deal was out their. With Williams and Goose Gosling getting shelled the other day Wayne K had to make a deal to put a sembelance of a rotation out their.
I have said all along I want Wily Mo to stay and Austin to go. I am concerned on top of that, that they have simply compounded the error by bringing in another pitcher ill-suited to success in GABP. We shall see.
I will miss watching Wily Mo develop and seeing how good he can be. I hope he thrives in Boston.
I hope Arroyo proves my worry wrong, but, today, this deal makes me grumpy.
Why do the Reds seem intent on utilizing their field players in the stupidest way possible??? It belies logic which is something I thought we'd received an infusion of with this new regime...
No, it doesn't mean more Wins. You can't offset a Run value loss offensively without making it up somewhere. To actually add Wins, you need to receive more Run value than you gave up in the context of your alternatives. The Reds don't do that with this trade considering that Hatteberg is going to get the lion's share of PA at 1B. If Womack steals a goodly number of PA from better players as well, then you're looking at a few more losses than last season even with Arroyo in the mix.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
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