Trade: Wily Mo to Red Sox

[Caveat Emperor]

Why do we need to bring back O'Brien? It's like he never left.

Wait. Strike that. My bad. At least O'Brien gave up only Dustin Moseley to acquire a low K rate, below-average defense independent run value fly ball pitcher.

Awful, awful trade.

Something absolutely had to give. If this team came north with the 5 man rotation it had penciled in from the start of spring training (figuring on Gosling/Germano/Wilson 5th man), there was a good chance of the team hitting the 100 loss plateau. Krivsky had to make a trade here, if for no other reason than to at least give the ballclub a fighting chance at keeping the losses under control. Given what we know about R-Cast, I wouldn't be surprised if the edict to "improve the pitching, now" came directly from the top.

I'm reserving judgment on this trade until I see how Arroyo deals with pitching in GABP and how he adjsuts to being in the National League. The numbers don't look favorable, but I can't help but drinking a bit of kool-aid at the thought of potentially not having to watch Paul Wilson or Mike Gosling take the ball every 5 days.

I suppose this means Kearns will stick around now -- somebdoy has made the determination that they still feel Kearns to have the better upside than Pena.

[SirFelixCat]

PECOTA has Pena and Arroyo at about the same VORP (Pena:24.0; Arroyo:24.3) for 2006, but they diverge from there, and not in the Reds favor.

Figured as much. From what I'm gathering they diverge A LOT after this season. Anyone else notice the SHARP decline in his K rates I posted a lil earlier?

And again, if they start Womack and Hatteberg, I officially will loathe this trade. Seriously.

[savafan]

Arroyo was third in the AL in hit batsmen last year, and first in the AL in 2004. Should be exciting.


He was also sixth in the AL in WHIP in 2004 with a 1.220

[rdiersin]

Something absolutely had to give. If this team came north with the 5 man rotation it had penciled in from the start of spring training (figuring on Gosling/Germano/Wilson 5th man), there was a good chance of the team hitting the 100 loss plateau. Krivsky had to make a trade here, if for no other reason than to at least give the ballclub a fighting chance at keeping the losses under control. Given what we know about R-Cast, I wouldn't be surprised if the edict to "improve the pitching, now" came directly from the top.

I'm reserving judgment on this trade until I see how Arroyo deals with pitching in GABP and how he adjsuts to being in the National League. The numbers don't look favorable, but I can't help but drinking a bit of kool-aid at the thought of potentially not having to watch Paul Wilson or Mike Gosling take the ball every 5 days.

I suppose this means Kearns will stick around now -- somebdoy has made the determination that they still feel Kearns to have the better upside than Pena.

I agree, and I'm also reserving judgement until we see how much cash is coming back. If its used wisely in the draft or in another trade, then this could turn into good trade. But if its for more of the same, then this is crap IMO.

[redsfan30]

Maybe Arroyo is all you *can* get for Pena right now... play him a whole season in LF, which is supposedly what clearing the OF logjam was going to be all about, and if he produces an even somewhat quality season his worth suddenly becomes much higher than a freakin' Bronson Arroyo.

We've been beating that same "give them a year to up their trade value" drum for 4 years now. Where has that plan gotten us?

It's like poker. To make money, you can't be afraid to lose money.

Is Arroyo the savior? No. Is it fair to call him junk and call for Krivski's head? No.

[flyer85]

Arroyo's 50% PECOTA Line

192.0 IP
205 Hits
46 BB
115 Ks
24 HR
42%GB -slight GB pitcher similar to Harang
1.31 WHIP
4.37 ERA
25.6 VORP

Breakout 13
Improve 55
Collapse 9(very low)
attrition 2 (very very low)

[SirFelixCat]

I agree, and I'm also reserving judgement untill we see how much cash is coming back. If its used wisely in the draft or in another trade, then this could turn into good trade. But if its for more of the same, then this is crap IMO.

Well, seeing as it is not going to the Commish's office for approval, it has to be less than $1M, right?

[Highlifeman21]

I was at that game.

I hate to see Wily Mo traded, but what really makes the trade suck, IMO, is getting Arroyo in return.

Maybe Arroyo is all you *can* get for Pena right now... play him a whole season in LF, which is supposedly what clearing the OF logjam was going to be all about, and if he produces an even somewhat quality season his worth suddenly becomes much higher than a freakin' Bronson Arroyo.

If Denorfia becomes the everyday starter in CF w/ Junior moving to LF then I can stomach it a little better...

on a sidenote: How bad will Boston's OF defense be with Manny & Wily Mo?

Hehe, Manny and WMP in the Boston OF together... TV ratings for Red Sox games will jump exponentially as you can tune in and catch "Manny being Manny" and "The Adventures of Wily Mo: How to turn any ball hit at me into a 3 base error"

A serious question here.... Who would you rather see in LF/CF? Freel, or Denorfia? I'm still under the impression we're gonna see Hatteberg @ 1B and ToWo @ 2B, so does the trade of WMP guarantee Denorfia a spot on the 25 man, or does this mean we're gonna see Rhodes and or McCracken come to the Queen City out of camp?

[puca]

So what? The Reds aren't winning anything without pitching. Arroyo is a young guy with some upside. He won't be the savior, but Wily Mo Pena wasn't either.

Wily Mo could hit 50 HR's a year, but if Arroyo is here for 5 or 6 and gets 13-15 wins a year, I'd call it a great trade.

Arroyo is 29 and parlayed what was quite likely a career year in 2004 into a multi-year deal. Arroyo was waiver wire fodder just 3 years ago, and my guess is that he will be again before Wily Mo is a free agent.

I don't like this trade at all. It is not about trading Wily Mo, it is about getting the right players in return. I can see how Arroyo will help this team from completely embarrassing themselves in 2006, but it doesn't make them any more likely to compete for the playoffs this year or the next. If this was the best Wily Mo could fetch, I would have rather they rolled the dice that he or Kearns would bust out this year and then made a trade for a quality pitcher.

[shredda2000]

Arroyo was third in the AL in hit batsmen last year, and first in the AL in 2004. Should be exciting.


He was also sixth in the AL in WHIP in 2004 with a 1.220

Sounds like he pitches to contact...contacting the opposing batter

[OnBaseMachine]

Bronson Arroyo-National League Career

187 ip, 217 h, 23 hr, 85 bb, 111 k, 1.62 whip, 5.44 era

[WMR]

We've been beating that same "give them a year to up their trade value" drum for 4 years now. Where has that plan gotten us?

It's like poker. To make money, you can't be afraid to lose money.

Is Arroyo the savior? No. Is it fair to call him junk and call for Krivski's head? No.

He's never gotten the full-time starting opportunity... I'd have preferred to roll the dice by letting him play the year. Even if he didn't have a great/good year, you can still get a Bronson Arroyo.

[redsmetz]

Interesting note I saw on the Post's blog from a fan:

Arroyo's Road ERA for 2003-2005 is

*** 3.48 ****

with the DH!


I'll take that in the NL anytime without the DH.

[WMR]

Hehe, Manny and WMP in the Boston OF together... TV ratings for Red Sox games will jump exponentially as you can tune in and catch "Manny being Manny" and "The Adventures of Wily Mo: How to turn any ball hit at me into a 3 base error"

A serious question here.... Who would you rather see in LF/CF? Freel, or Denorfia? I'm still under the impression we're gonna see Hatteberg @ 1B and ToWo @ 2B, so does the trade of WMP guarantee Denorfia a spot on the 25 man, or does this mean we're gonna see Rhodes and or McCracken come to the Queen City out of camp?

Tuffy was released, I believe... Narron being Narron, I'm sure he'll go with the proven veteran if given the option.

[redsfan30]

He's never gotten the full-time starting opportunity... I'd have preferred to roll the dice by letting him play the year. Even if he didn't have a great/good year, you can still get a Bronson Arroyo.

We've been saying that with Kearns forever and he has never taken advantage of it. He either gets hurt or just plain doesn't produce.

Maybe Pena would have produced over a full season, but again maybe he wouldn't have. When you're as pitching starved as this organization is you have to make a few "bold" moves.

Until Wayne Krivski makes me believe otherwise, this is the best he could get for Wily Mo Pena.

Westofyou said on the other board something that I completely agree with. He said next year at this point Arroyo hopefully will be our 4th starter rather than our 2nd starter.