Which leads to the question about which is a better prediction of later big league success, a player's AAA performance or his spring showing?Originally Posted by flyer85
A.There are arguments for AAA's being a better indicator because it is a much larger sample and is against "regular season" -- albeit minor league -- competition.
B.There are arguments for ST stats because they have come against major leaguers in addition to minor leaguers -- albeit from a much shorter playing time, and they are attained at the player's current age, maturity level, and experience -- unlike last season's "history".
For example, Denorfia's Florida numbers to date:
AB HR RBI AVG SLG
46 0 2 .283 .370
Are there some historical data to support either AAA or ST as being superior to the other as indicators?