Pena traded for Arroyo

[Crash Davis]

Well, if Pena's going to make the Reds look stupid, it likely won't be in 2006. Between Ortiz, Ramirez, and Nixon, Pena's going to have a hell of a time getting much playing time without an injury.

I bet it will be '06. He'll get ABs vs. all lefties by subbing for Nixon or Crisp. If half his ABs come against lefties, his percentage numbers are going to look very nice.

Which of the following is more likely to happen? Trot Nixon gets less than 400 at bats due to an injury and platoon issues. Or Wily Mo Pena gets at least 400 at bats through platoon, injury and offdays.

Hmmm. 50/50.

[Caveat Emperor]

I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.

I think Choi would be a great pickup for the Reds and would certainly be able to do some damage in this ballpark.

The added benefit of going after a guy like him is that you can use his 81 home dates to pump his numbers up and then flip him again later to restock more prospects.

[M2]

Ok, endulge me here then. What were Arroyo's K numbers, say, thru July last year?

He was at 5.25 K/9 at the ASB last season. Hardly gangbusters, but largely due to the 109 IP he'd thrown up until that point. The guy had some learning to do in terms of pitching with fatigue. His AAA K rate, amassed over 460.2 IP, was 7.48. So I think a certain amount of rebound is to be expected.

It should be noted that his pre-ASB numbers in addition to that K/9 were a 4.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .712 OPS against. He doesn't need to whiff folks like Kerry Wood to be effective. With a better seasonal stamina he should be able to drag his K:BB back towards 3:1 (certainly north of 2.5:1). If he's in that range, the Reds will have themselves a solid pitcher.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'd rather seem him target Ryan Shealy now. He could hit circles around Hee Seop Choi, and the Rockies say they're going to bury him in AAA again after the outfield experiment didn't take.

Another excellent idea. Shealy could probably be had without having to give up a boatload. Shealy looks like a Travis Hafner-lite. I would forgive Krivsky for the Pena deal if he can acquire a Shealy, Pena, or Choi.

[gonelong]

I'll go on record as liking this deal. Pena might grow up to be a monster, but by the time he does, you'll have to pay heftily for it anyway. If you are the Reds you need contracts that allow the guys to at least earn their money if not be a relative bargain.

I think BA will earn his $$, and quite possibly perform well enough for us to consider his contract a bargain. While he is being inserted as the #2 guy in the rotation right now, hopefully he will be the #4 guy next year as Claussen steps his game up a a bit and the Reds go out and get another guy.

2007
#1 Pickup
#2 AH
#3 BC
#4 BA
#5 Dave Williams/Matt Belisle/Homer Bailey/etc.

To me this move was made with an eye on 2007/2008, and IMO, that is where the Reds need to be looking.

GL

/of course, this deal doesn't work for the Reds unless it is part of a larger plan. On its own, the deal isn't all that exciting.

[johngalt]

Something had to give, and it did here.

Will Bronson Arroyo become a very good pitcher for us? I don't know.

Will Wily Mo Pena become a superstar in Boston? I don't know.

Does this improve our rotation and, in turn, our bullpen? Yes.

Does improving the pitching staff improve our chances to win? Yes.

[M2]

In the long run, finding a 1B shouldn't be a major ordeal (in fact, he might be named Adam Dunn). These are transitional times and change doesn't always come in a tidy package. Anyway, the good news is 1B is the easiest hole to plug.

[Kc61]

If this had to be done, then I would hope that it opens a regular spot for Freel. Doesn't seem like it since Narron says (in article on Reds website) that Hatteberg now moves in at first and Dunn back to left field.

At this stage of his career, can/should Hatteberg be a regular first baseman?

[Cedric]

Should? Hell no. Should Tony Womack even be on the roster though? The more things change with the Reds the more they stay the same.

[lollipopcurve]

In the long run, finding a 1B shouldn't be a major ordeal (in fact, he might be named Adam Dunn). These are transitional times and change doesn't always come in a tidy package. Anyway, the good news is 1B is the easiest hole to plug

Yep. They may even find the answer very inexpensively in-house with Votto in a year or two.

[Aronchis]

This may just be one moves of many. I don't think Krivsky had much love for Pena, nor thought he will be a superstar. In otherwords the guy got rid of the dude before he had no trade value at all. Unlike Kearns who they still believe can garner some better offers by improved production.

So we got a serviceable starter for a bad defensive, overrated bat. That is the Krivsky view. Of course the Pro-Pena people are going to cry over it. They believe the guy either had 1)more value than Arroyo2)or was a future superstar.

Evaluations..................

[westofyou]

I have a hard time loving guys who have trouble fielding any OF position, K every 3 ab's walk every 17 and have never hit above .280 at any level.

[westofyou]

Tony Womack = Terry Pendelton in 1997.

He'll cut his own throat before he cuts the Reds throats.

[oneupper]

I don't know what to think about this. Over a year ago, when the Kearns or Peña debate was at the apex...I was all for trading WMP and keeping AK.
After watching them in 2005...my feelings changed.

WMP's winter ball numbers gave him enough value to be traded for something, I guess. There was some expectation to if he had, in effect, become more plate disciplined. Now the Red Sox will find out (although this move looks like Manny replacement therapy).

BA? The guy was DFA'd by the Pirates before the Sox took him. Who knows?

I hope I'm wrong, but AK will give us a lot of opposite field singles, to make Narron happy, but not much to please the Redzoners.

So, I'm neutral on the deal. What I DO like is that Krivsky is showing that he is willing to make some moves and will try to get what he can to balance the club. I'd expect to see a LOT more player rotation than we have seen in the past. So don't get too enamoured with your 2006 Cincinnati Reds...they may not be around for long.

[Roy Tucker]

I think the $$$ and MLB-readiness of Arroyo came into play as well.

He is signed for a relatively cheap contract that fits with the Reds' fiscal miserliness. And, he can pitch *now* at the MLB level. The Reds don't have to wait for him to mature through the minors.