Pena traded for Arroyo

[OldXOhio]

For what it's worth, Arroyo's ST ERA is a splendid 10.03 in 11.2 innings.

Worth almost next to nothing. Pay more attention to his last few outings of the spring rather than his first ones.

[Red Leader]

Another idea. Take your lumps with what you have in the rotation this year, and trade WMP to Cleveland for Guillermo Mota (a closer for this year's Reds..who could be moved at the deadline for other prospects) and prospect Fausto Carmona. The Indians were said to be interested as well.

[registerthis]

I never said that Arroyo wasn't on par with Pena at Pena's present value. The point is why not give Pena a chance to increase his value? Who Pena could get now is irrelevant to me.

Perhaps it was "I find it VERY hard to believe that Bronson frickin Arroyo is the best you could get for Pena" that led me to believe that you were comparing the current value of the two players. If you were shocked that WMP today could only net the Reds Arroyo, I merely asked what you believed would have been a fair return.

I think that Pena is being consistently overvalued--and has been for a couple of years. Comparing the two, I think this trade makes sense for the Reds. It's certainly not the doomsday event some here are claiming it to be.

[Johnny Footstool]

Mainly he got tired from pitching more than he ever has before. Arroyo gets Ks off of movement and control. Like I said, now that he's climbed the wall once he'll be better prepared for it in 2006 and I fully expect his K rate to rise. It probably won't get back to his 2004 level of 7.15, but it won't be down around the 4.38 from last year. I'd expect something closer to 6.00 and Arroyo can be plenty effective in that range.

He must have been pretty tired in April, then.

Looks like he warmed up *a little* in May and June, then went to sleep in July and never really woke up.

Month  IP     K
April  32.2  15
May    30.1  20
June   32.0  23
July   42.1  12
Aug.   30.0  15
Sept.  38.0  15

His K rates were already weak at the beginning of the year, and he only approached a K/9 rate of 6.0 for two months out of the whole season. Not good.

[REDREAD]

To me unless you get a long term return for Wily Mo you don't trade a 24 year old slugger for a journeyman.
.

Hi Dave,

I agree with you in principle, but we have to remember that the Reds only had control of Pena for 3 more years anyhow (same as the length on Arroyo's contract).

Also, if Pena had a monster year, they might be forced to trade him.
I think Arroyo is more of a "long term" guy than Pena for that reason (Arroyo has cost certainty).

Arroyo fills a huge need. The upgrade from Germano/Gosling to Arroyo is significant. I'm not sure that the downgrade from Pena to Hattenberg/Freel/whoever is going to even be noticed.

Also, let's keep in mind that Pena might make no significant progress this year or next. The fact that he's only 24 is a double edged sword. It means he still has potential, but it also means it might take him a few more years to reach that potential.

Now, I can see how some posters made the arguement that we have lost in terms of total talent, but this a trade that needed to be done.

[Heath]

The guy nobody mentions is smith288 who is going to have to re-do the RedsZone.com "Away" board theme AGAIN.

But seriously, I'm ok with the deal. I have a feeling the Willy Mo's gonna get sticker shock when he sees the Green Monster and he's gonna have 200k's this summer. After he botches a few routine plays in the OF in a pennant race, Red Sox nation will blow their collective stacks. After that, Willy Mo's due for a DH career that might rival Steve Balboni's.

I figure Arroyo's a little better than the Gosling/Germano pair.

I'll be alright with this for a while -

[penantboundreds]

I like the trade for the point of it, pitching, pitching, pitching, but I would have preferred to send Wily Mo and Cash for a good AAA or AA pitcher who is said to come into his own and contribute to a major league club in the next 2 seasons. I think we need to think like this, Harang and Claussen will be in their prime in 2-3 years, Homer Bailey will be on the club and will be a very electrifying pitcher, and then if we would have traded for one more prospect that could (should) turn out to be a major league quality pitcher. Then in 2008 we could trade for one #3-4 pitcher and we would have a quality line-up. While saying this you have to think, if you can get something trade value for Griffey at the trade deadline this year, I think you do it.....we should be thinking 2-3 years from now. Reds fans have seen the club struggle long enough, we can do it for 2-3 more years so we can have a studly team come 2008. I know this was kind of a rumble of the tongue but I kept getting thoughts throughout.

[SirFelixCat]

Mainly he got tired from pitching more than he ever has before. Arroyo gets Ks off of movement and control. Like I said, now that he's climbed the wall once he'll be better prepared for it in 2006 and I fully expect his K rate to rise. It probably won't get back to his 2004 level of 7.15, but it won't be down around the 4.38 from last year. I'd expect something closer to 6.00 and Arroyo can be plenty effective in that range.

Ok, endulge me here then. What were Arroyo's K numbers, say, thru July last year?

[Crash Davis]

Also, if Pena had a monster year, they might be forced to trade him.
I think Arroyo is more of a "long term" guy than Pena for that reason (Arroyo has cost certainty).

It's so sad that recent Reds' ownership/management has made you feel this way about your baseball team. It's a warped mindset, and it doesn't have to be that way.

If Wily Mo has a "monster" year, you don't trade him because of his potential arbitration numbers. You use him as a building block.

You've been brainwashed by the cycle of irrelevance this organization has been going through.

[indy_dave00]

Oh well I guess perhaps we can be entertained by which hair do Bronson Arroyo will have each start . On of the only real things I've noticed watching him is he likes to change his hair style - maybe he'll use the beaded corn roll look on opening day.

Sorry I just can't help but think Matt Clement was a better option if the Bosox wanted Pena.

Hopefully you'll see me on here several times this summer eating crow when Bronson Arroyo is winning start after start , while Wily Mo is learning from Manny Ramirez and David Ortez on the Sox bench.

I think with Manny and Big Poppy there you may see Wily Mo blossom quickly.

[OnBaseMachine]

I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.

Trade for Chris Young. The D-Backs are loaded with outfield prospects and would most likely part with him.

[Doc. Scott]

Well, if Pena's going to make the Reds look stupid, it likely won't be in 2006. Between Ortiz, Ramirez, and Nixon, Pena's going to have a hell of a time getting much playing time without an injury.

[Cedric]

So Narron has now came out and said Hatteberg is gonna play everday. This is sickening. Just watch how Womack get's used now with Freel being used in a main OF sub role.

Get ready for a GREAT season.

[Crash Davis]

I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.

Trade for Chris Young. The D-Backs are loaded with outfield prospects and would most likely part with him.

I'd rather seem him target Ryan Shealy now. He could hit circles around Hee Seop Choi, and the Rockies say they're going to bury him in AAA again after the outfield experiment didn't take.

[Red Leader]

I would love to see Krivsky target Hee Seop Choi now. He can be had for cheap, and I really think he could have a breakout season in the Great American Ballpark. Or sign Carlos Pena if the Tigers do release him.

Trade for Chris Young. The D-Backs are loaded with outfield prospects and would most likely part with him.

All excellent ideas.

Now that we've traded WMP for a SP to upgrade the pitching and forced Hatteberg into a full time role, we need to make another move to correct the one that just left us with Hatteberg as a full time player. Tony Womack already has a solution on hand, the Reds just refuse to use it.