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Thread: Pena traded for Arroyo

  1. #196
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    I'm not to happy about this.

    I'm going to reserve judgement to see what happens, but on the surface I'm kinda ticked at this move.
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski

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  3. #197
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron
    If Narron uses that batting order he should be fired.
    I'd agree but our new GM LOVES "old school" Narron.
    Go Gators!

  4. #198
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Eh, I guess I'll quit yawning over this deal and give my take

    IMO, this all depends what K/9 ratio Arroyo gives us. If he gives us that 7+ mark he put up in 2004, then I like the trade. If he gives us a sub 5 mark that he put up in 2005, then I'm not a fan of the trade.

    This is where just having excellent scouts working alongside numbers folks come into play ... basically where having an outstanding front office comes into play. If I'm working for a team and I'm analyzing Arroyo, I want to know whether 2004 is the norm or if 2005 is the norm (or vice versa, if 2004 was a fluke or not).

    Arroyo's got good control, has shown that he can keep the ball in the yard fairly well and has pitched well on the road while with the Sawks. The magic number is just that K/9 mark because he's been BABIP lucky while with Boston.

    Our defense is so bad that if he gives us a 4-5 K/9 mark, I think he'll get torched here with our gloves behind him. If he gives us that 7+ mark he put up in 2004, then I think he can pitch like Harang. The problem is I don't know which one is more likely than the other; we can only hope Krivsky knows.

    All I do know is I've never been a fan of Wily Mo Pena. I thought the Reds should have been playing him every day just so he could put up that magic mark of 35+ bombs over a full season and put the team in position to seriously rape another team when dealing him. In fact, when Casey was dealt this offseason my hope was that the Reds would play Pena every day this season to increase his trade value so we could get rid of him and net a solid return.

    At best, I think Pena's upside is Alfonso Soriano, and I HATE Alfonso Soriano. Pena's an absolute out mosheen, and with his OBP empty power, teams will shoot themselves in the foot batting him in the middle of the lineup. The Sawks are smart; when they start Pena they'll bury him at the end of the lineup. The Reds, on the other hand, would have been prone to putting him in a spot where he cripples big inning potential created by our better hitters.

    I guess in the end, I'm glad Pena's gone. I'm not yet convinced if the timing and return we got is about as good as he could fetch us, but I am glad he's gone. In the end, Arroyo's K/9 number will answer the question of the timing/return of the deal.
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  5. #199
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Well count me in the negative camp. Not because Arroyo was the return, but because that return lacked another arm. A decent arm from High A or AA would have done it for me. The Reds needed cash for a 3.5 mil contract? ridiculous. Orroyo is ok, and could go Harang at the same time Claussen should. And if Harang also takes a logical step forwar, or even if he is only marginally better, the front 3 looks decent.

    But Orroyo isn't enough. The Reds knew it and settled for 1.5 mil. they should have started with Papelbon (sp?), moved to Lester with their eyes firmly targeting a pitcher at High A or AA. This move MAY improve the rotation, but the problem is bigger than this year's rotation.

    Gardner and Pauley both with shoulder injuries. No clear stud pitching prospect even sniffing the majors. Homer Bailey isn't a stud until he dominates a league. The backups for the rotation are Belisle, Basham, Koz, Lizard, Germano, Gosling. Intimidating ain't it.

    Add to this the Reds lose offense by making Hatteberg the starter at 1B. more blech.

    I'm ok with Orroyo, but the return was not enough by half.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #200
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Ridiculous to trade Pena and then start Hatteberg, absolutely ridiculous, teams that love to lose do stuff like that.
    For me that's a non-issue. The Reds can do anything stupid they wish with the lineup for next two or three months. The bigger issue is that the club might have three average or better starting pitchers in town for the next three years to assemble a team around. Suddenly there might be enough pitching oxygen in the Reds atmosphere to sustain a living team. Will that happen in 2006? Probably not. No one said massive change would be quick or easy.

    The bright side for those bemoaning the temporary appearance of Hatteberg and Womack is that neither will last long if he's awful. I'd like the Reds not to have learn the hard way on these seemingly fundamental lineup issues too, but far more important to me today is that when I tick off the number of Reds pitchers who should be of use on a major league ballclub I now have to use one more finger.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  7. #201
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Put with those who aren't a big fan of the trade, but don't hate it. It's not that I think they could have done "better" but different. I think as far as established major league pitchers, Arroyo was probably the best you were going to get. But as others have said, I would have preferred a high minor leaguer with upside instead of a 29 innings eater who's likely seen his best days already. But I think it will help the team this year and maybe next, assuming Arroyo doesn't self destruct.

    I have a hard time opining on any trade of WMP as it is because he's such an enigma to me. For those people who have the ability to watch a guy like WMP and reasonably predict how he's going to turn out. I'm not one of those guys. I honestly have no clue whether or not wily mo will turn into a monster or out of the league. But I don't agree with the Ron Gant comp. I really believe WMP is going to be feast or famine. He's either going Sammy Sosa or Willie Greene. I don't think there's a middle ground with him.
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  8. #202
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    I agree that the suckitude of Womack and Hatteberg in the everyday lineup will eventually lead to them being replaced. It's not a non issue, but more a temporary one.

    Not getting two arms for a 23 year old POWER HITTER coming of a hot winter campaign, when said POWER HITTER is going to a perk that will favor said power is an issue.

    I don't make any great claim to know who the Reds should have targeted, but pile 'O cash shouldn't have been on the list.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #203
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    Well count me in the negative camp. Not because Arroyo was the return, but because that return lacked another arm. A decent arm from High A or AA would have done it for me. The Reds needed cash for a 3.5 mil contract? ridiculous. Orroyo is ok, and could go Harang at the same time Claussen should. And if Harang also takes a logical step forwar, or even if he is only marginally better, the front 3 looks decent.

    But Orroyo isn't enough. The Reds knew it and settled for 1.5 mil. they should have started with Papelbon (sp?), moved to Lester with their eyes firmly targeting a pitcher at High A or AA. This move MAY improve the rotation, but the problem is bigger than this year's rotation.

    Gardner and Pauley both with shoulder injuries. No clear stud pitching prospect even sniffing the majors. Homer Bailey isn't a stud until he dominates a league. The backups for the rotation are Belisle, Basham, Koz, Lizard, Germano, Gosling. Intimidating ain't it.

    Add to this the Reds lose offense by making Hatteberg the starter at 1B. more blech.

    I'm ok with Orroyo, but the return was not enough by half.
    That 1.5 had nothing to do about "settling", but everything to do why this trade was completed. Any prospect thrown in, would have been thrown in.

  10. #204
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    What this deal really seems to do for Boston is give them a platoon bat vs. lefties for Nixon and a potential LF in case Manny goes off the deep end. Bat him 6th behind Varitek and he could drive in 110 runs hitting .240 with 40 bombs over 600 AB. Pena also doesn't cost them an arm and a leg. And they get it for somebody they were gonna use as a middle reliever. Unless Arroyo goes off and has an all-star season, I can't see how the Sox lose this one.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #205
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Arroyo has been far better against righties than against lefties. In the NL Central, I think that's going to be a significant plus. How it plays in GAB, I don't know.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  12. #206
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    Unless Arroyo goes off and has an all-star season, I can't see how the Sox lose this one.
    I actually think this deal could be win-win. Pena could club the ball for the Sox and Arroyo could give the Reds three solid years on the mound. I imagine both franchises would be happy with that kind of return.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  13. #207
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    The bigger issue is that the club might have three average or better starting pitchers in town for the next three years to assemble a team around.
    I think that's the key. Arroyo is superior to chumps like Ortiz, Wilson, and the various assortment of bargain bin arms the reds have run out there in recent years. Harang-Claussen-Arroyo has a chance to be a decent--not great, but decent--1, 2, 3 for the Reds. That might be enough around which to build a competitive team. It's also an option that Pena did not give.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  14. #208
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    Arroyo has been far better against righties than against lefties. In the NL Central, I think that's going to be a significant plus. How it plays in GAB, I don't know.
    That's the thing that probably ought to worry folks about Arroyo instead of a K rate that should bounce back. Arroyo's fundamental weakness is that lefties tag him a bit. Keeping LHBs in line will be his biggest challenge in 2006 and beyond.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #209
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis
    That 1.5 had nothing to do about "settling", but everything to do why this trade was completed. Any prospect thrown in, would have been thrown in.
    Indeed. I don't get all of this harumphing about the Reds not getting another arm. What makes anyone think the thrown-in arm would have been of any quality? This is Wily Mo we're talking about, not Dunn or even Junior. There was a limit to what he was going to get us. Perhaps the reds could have gotten an established big leaguer along with a minor leaguer with some upside, or they could have gone only for prospects and gotten 1-2 arms that may pay dividends down the road.

    Most likely, Krivsky looked at the rotation that the Reds were looking to run out there in April, didn't like what he saw, and went looking for an established player who can step in, be effective and be dependable. Arroyo fit the bill, and he's signed to a reasonable contract for 3 years. Like M2 said, I think this trade could be win-win for both teams.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  16. #210
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: Pena traded for Arroyo

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I actually think this deal could be win-win. Pena could club the ball for the Sox and Arroyo could give the Reds three solid years on the mound. I imagine both franchises would be happy with that kind of return.
    I am leaning that way as well M2...I hope this works out for both teams.
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski


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