Pena traded for Arroyo

[kyred14]

In a perfect world this would be my lineup

2B Freel
SS Lopez
1B Dunn
CF Griffey
RF Kearns
3B Encarnacion
C Larue
RF Denorfia

Of course it isn't a prefect world, so this is the kinda stuff we'll have to put up with quite often:

2B Womack
SS Lopez
CF Griffey
LF Dunn
3B Auirila
1B Hatteburg
RF Kearns
C Larue

Looks like a Jerry Narron wet dream.

[redsrule2500]

At first this didn't seem too bad, but you guys have changed my mind.

Wow the offseason trades this year were terrible. The worst is by far the Casey deal.

[KronoRed]

so is Dunn moving back to the OF?

Yep :thumbdown

[Spitball]

When I first hears about the trade, I assumed Freel would move to left. I wonder if Dunn has quietly (not through the press) expressed his strong preference for the outfield.

[WVRed]

I love hearing players' opinions on other players. Like when Kent Mercker said Eric Milton would win 15 game this season.

You can't write jokes like that.

Just like fans opinions on other players.

Opinions are just like, well, you know.

[TRF]

The return wasn't enough. plain and simple. I know GM's tend to overvalue pitching. That's why you have trades like Rob Bell for Mateo and EE. But in an offensive era with the cloud of steroids, a guy like WMP has a ton of value.

Tremendous power and never a hint that it is anything but natural. He's a beast. He's reported to have a tremendous work ethic. He has recognized the shortcomings in his game, which denotes some baseball IQ. And now he is going to be surrounded by an atmosphere of winning.

He was worth Arroyo AND a minor league arm. At worst it should have been Arroyo and a top prospect at a position of the Reds choice. I won't pretend to know what the Red Sox have, but surely they have something.

[buckeyenut]

Hoping that Krivsky can find a trade partner at the deadline is all well and good, but that would mean that Arroyo is actually more productive than he projects to be. If that's the case, the Reds won't trade him. By my estimation, the only way Arroyo becomes available is if he performs well below expectations and, at that point, he's worth less than what was spent on his initial acquisition.

Assumption here is that Reds won't trade him. With a new GM, that may not be a safe assumption. Let's see what happens.

Maybe he is playing chess and we are just assuming he is playing checkers.

[Falls City Beer]

FCB, this swap didn't positively affect the Reds projected Run Diff for 2006. In fact, they lose at least a game in a Win column if it plays out the way I suspect it will. If it were different and Arroyo were a better pitcher, you know as well as anyone that I'd be 100% behind the trade. As is, I can't do it.

Hoping that Krivsky can find a trade partner at the deadline is all well and good, but that would mean that Arroyo is actually more productive than he projects to be. If that's the case, the Reds won't trade him. By my estimation, the only way Arroyo becomes available is if he performs well below expectations and, at that point, he's worth less than what was spent on his initial acquisition.

You know me. I'm all for doing something when it needs to be done. That being said, if it's a linear move (and this one is), that move better add more than it subtracts in the grand scheme of things. This one doesn't and I expect that we'll need a minimum of 10 Runs added somewhere to even it out. So we hope for the next one that actually does what we need it to do.

To me, that's the tomorrow that never comes while we see linear move after linear move while hoping beyond hope that we're instead seeing only the first in a solid chain of trade wins in order to build some kind of talent cache.

Basically, this move is checkers when the Reds need to be playing chess.

If Krivsky's not thinking beyond this move, then I agree with you. It's obviously a checkers move.

But if he's got the guts to turn Arroyo or even Harang into super-high ceiling arms at the deadline, then it's a great move.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on whether a successful Arroyo or a successful Pena is worth more at the deadline. I'm not at all worried about losing 5-10 runs in the differential; in fact, I"m not all that sold that that's the way it will shake out, provided Encarnacion continues to grow at the rate he appears to be. Obviously, a ton of other factors affect that prediction (whom Narron plays, how often, etc).

[traderumor]

One thing that I was surprised by in reviewing some PECOTAs is that WMP was fourth in VORP on the offensive side at 24.1, just a tick above Kearns. Of course, Arroyo's 25.6 puts him at the top on the pitching side, just above Harang, which for comparison purposes, consider that Justin Germano, a potential filler that he replaces, projected at 6.8, so that is a dramatic addition to the rotation. However, concurrent with that is the yet to be replaced value of WMP. I would see this as more important to the impact of this trade more than anything else, is who and how WMP's replacement (right now Hatteberg, hopefully someone different before very long) fares.

[Johnny Footstool]

Just like fans opinions on other players.

Opinions are just like, well, you know.

True, but at least some fans are able to put together some intelligent reasons for their opinions. Players tend to formulate their opinions based on who "works the hardest" or who tells the funniest jokes in the locker room.

But if he's got the guts to turn Arroyo or even Harang into super-high ceiling arms at the deadline, then it's a great move.

Guts?

If Krivsky really had guts, he would have held out for a better return instead of acting like this was a No-Reserve auction on EBay. There was no real reason this trade had to be made, other than Krivsky getting trigger-happy.

BTW - If Arroyo could bring a "super-high ceiling" arm, don't you think the Red Sox would have dealt him for it? Or do you think his stock will improve after half a season in that pitchers' paradise that is the GABP?

[westofyou]

Digging up a thread from the past.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=38658

WMP is currently sitting in a strange place for a starting player in todays game, this place is the domain usually of middle infielders and guys who played during eras of diminished hitting and run production.

Of course I'm talking about the Mendoza line of On Base Percentage .300. For this season he's plopped at .295, for his career .301.

After 773 plate apperances in MLB WMP has 44 walks, or roughly 1 every 17.6 times he strolls to the plate. While it's not Shawon Dunston territory (31.3) it should be a red flag for many, even despite his 5.13 RC/27 this season and his 5.55 last year.

Most might retort that WMP has the ability to drive the ball at anytime and that walks shouldn't matter. While I agree that walks aren't the only thing that should drive a player I would feel better about WMP if his batting average was more Guillen or Anderson like.

Plate Coverage and bat on the ball skills compliment a slugger as does walks, making outs is still making outs and slugging a HR as often as you walk should only be rewarded when it gets down to the once every 12 times you step to to the plate.

Neither of these skills only make the payoff an extra base hit, which currently occurs in WMP once every 10 times he bats.

If the man didn't have the abnormal amount of home runs his game would be downright scary.

Below is the list of players who had as many PA's as WMP at the same age since 1950. with the same walk rate. The list is sorted by RC/27 and the ones on top tend to be the ones that bouyed their numbers with batting average, a tool that has yet to find it's way to WMP's Snap-On Tools drawers.

RUNS CREATED/GAME              RC/G      BB       AVG      OBA      SLG     RC/G    
1    Nomar Garciaparra          6.39       39     .298     .334     .527     1.22   
2    Juan Pierre                5.59       54     .323     .372     .392     0.24   
3    Shawn Green                5.38       54     .274     .324     .460     0.01   
4    Garry Maddox               5.23       38     .296     .325     .448     0.85   
5    Willie Wilson              5.20       45     .291     .332     .383     0.61   
6    Juan Samuel                5.05       32     .273     .308     .443     0.65   
7    Angel Berroa               5.04       39     .282     .334     .432     0.04   
8    Luis Polonia               4.97       53     .289     .336     .390     0.25   
9    Juan Encarnacion           4.71       24     .271     .304     .473     -.63   
10   Rich Coggins               4.67       58     .282     .331     .393     0.50   
11   Al Oliver                  4.66       56     .276     .328     .426     0.00   
12   Vernon Wells               4.60       36     .277     .308     .441     -.39   
13   Bert Campaneris            4.42       56     .266     .320     .380     0.14   
14   Fernando Tatis             4.42       50     .270     .319     .412     -.73   
15   Corey Patterson            4.32       43     .260     .293     .419     -.79   
16   Jeff Blauser               4.32       58     .260     .320     .395     -.10   
17   Tommie Agee                4.31       45     .262     .314     .425     0.19   
18   Jim Presley                4.21       50     .261     .301     .459     -.32   
19   Juan Uribe                 4.08       59     .258     .298     .408    -1.04   
20   Benito Santiago            4.07       42     .276     .304     .420     -.53   
21   Wilton Guerrero            4.06       22     .286     .305     .389    -1.04   
22   Michael Barrett            4.05       58     .264     .322     .384    -1.51   
23   Joe Pepitone               4.01       50     .258     .288     .434     -.44   
24   Bill Buckner               3.93       48     .283     .310     .367     -.46   
25   Warren Cromartie           3.93       37     .272     .310     .370     -.84   
26   Mike Ivie                  3.92       53     .268     .316     .384     -.48   
27   Ken Boswell                3.89       53     .268     .321     .364     -.22   
28   Shawon Dunston             3.89       40     .253     .288     .404     -.59   
29   Jose Guillen               3.89       58     .264     .303     .397    -1.30   
30   Joe Adcock                 3.79       48     .267     .311     .392    -1.36   
31   Rich Gedman                3.77       34     .271     .307     .392     -.62   
32   Mike Caruso                3.64       34     .278     .305     .343    -1.66   
33   Brian McRae                3.61       33     .266     .294     .379     -.84   
34   Jesus Alou                 3.60       26     .287     .312     .367     -.73   
35   Rey Quinones               3.50       50     .253     .302     .357    -1.32   
36   Bobby Valentine            3.45       47     .269     .309     .336     -.81   
37   Bobby Richardson           3.43       45     .272     .301     .332    -1.17   
38   Ollie Brown                3.35       58     .251     .307     .360     -.94   
39   Alex Gonzalez              3.33       37     .238     .273     .376    -2.21   
40   Reno Bertoia               3.31       55     .239     .297     .342    -1.33   
41   Harry Chiti                3.31       51     .239     .291     .368    -1.52   
42   Ozzie Guillen              3.27       46     .267     .287     .340    -1.45   
43   Mark Lewis                 3.23       40     .263     .298     .338    -1.20   
44   Barry Foote                3.17       52     .232     .278     .362    -1.30   
45   Ramon Santiago             3.10       46     .231     .297     .311    -1.88   
46   Ken Reitz                  3.03       34     .263     .287     .355    -1.41   
47   Billy Ripken               3.02       54     .239     .293     .294    -1.54   
48   Alex Trevino               3.00       47     .261     .307     .303    -1.47   
49   Dan Meyer                  2.99       44     .240     .280     .339    -1.15   
50   Tom Veryzer                2.97       51     .245     .295     .311    -1.15   
51   Clete Boyer                2.93       43     .227     .272     .331    -1.83   
52   Tito Fuentes               2.86       41     .238     .272     .326    -1.46   
53   Woody Woodward             2.81       53     .238     .286     .295    -1.57   
54   Cesar Izturis              2.77       41     .246     .270     .319    -2.31   
55   Jack Brohamer              2.76       59     .229     .278     .299    -1.23   
56   Don Kessinger              2.61       46     .246     .284     .275    -1.78   
57   Bob Didier                 2.55       54     .225     .281     .270    -1.93   
58   Hal Lanier                 2.33       42     .241     .263     .306    -2.04   
59   Jack Heidemann             2.16       48     .208     .260     .268    -2.24   
60   Luis Alvarado              2.01       34     .210     .245     .277    -2.11

If you were to take the batting average matrix and make it below .260 then the list would be only 23 players

RUNS CREATED/GAME              RC/G      BB       AVG      OBA      SLG     RC/G    
1    Juan Uribe                 4.08       59     .258     .298     .408    -1.04   
2    Joe Pepitone               4.01       50     .258     .288     .434     -.44   
3    Shawon Dunston             3.89       40     .253     .288     .404     -.59   
4    Rey Quinones               3.50       50     .253     .302     .357    -1.32   
5    Ollie Brown                3.35       58     .251     .307     .360     -.94   
6    Alex Gonzalez              3.33       37     .238     .273     .376    -2.21   
7    Reno Bertoia               3.31       55     .239     .297     .342    -1.33   
8    Harry Chiti                3.31       51     .239     .291     .368    -1.52   
9    Barry Foote                3.17       52     .232     .278     .362    -1.30   
10   Ramon Santiago             3.10       46     .231     .297     .311    -1.88   
11   Billy Ripken               3.02       54     .239     .293     .294    -1.54   
12   Dan Meyer                  2.99       44     .240     .280     .339    -1.15   
13   Tom Veryzer                2.97       51     .245     .295     .311    -1.15   
14   Clete Boyer                2.93       43     .227     .272     .331    -1.83   
15   Tito Fuentes               2.86       41     .238     .272     .326    -1.46   
16   Woody Woodward             2.81       53     .238     .286     .295    -1.57   
17   Cesar Izturis              2.77       41     .246     .270     .319    -2.31   
18   Jack Brohamer              2.76       59     .229     .278     .299    -1.23   
19   Don Kessinger              2.61       46     .246     .284     .275    -1.78   
20   Bob Didier                 2.55       54     .225     .281     .270    -1.93   
21   Hal Lanier                 2.33       42     .241     .263     .306    -2.04   
22   Jack Heidemann             2.16       48     .208     .260     .268    -2.24   
23   Luis Alvarado              2.01       34     .210     .245     .277    -2.11

If you make the list guys who had more than 40 HR's at this time then it would only be one

RUNS CREATED/GAME              RC/G      BB       AVG      OBA      SLG      HR     
1    Joe Pepitone               4.01       50     .258     .288     .434       62

Joe however needed 1200 plus PA's to achieve that during the 60's in a pitchers park.

Coupled with his defensive liabilities WMP is in my mind looking like a guy that should be moved ASAP while his power is still the part of his game that shines brightest.

It's a gamble the Reds should take before they move Dunn or Kearns, no skill is harder to teach than walks and after that obtaining hits.

Offensivly the goal is to not make outs and currently the goal should also be to leverage the present offense into some guys that help prevent outs. WMP is a chip that is not as great as Dunn or currently devalued as Kearns, yet his new car smell is still enough to knock some folks socks off.

But if the Reds squeeze him tight in hope of creating a diamond they could lose the chance to turn him into gold on the marketplace.

But then again that's the tune the Reds have been whistling since 1995 anyway.

[princeton]

If Krivsky really had guts, he would have held out for a better return instead of acting like this was a No-Reserve auction on EBay.

like The Brave Dan O'Brien, who wouldn't trade WMP when he was on one of those hot streaks?

If you want to call Krivsky foolish, be my guest, but he's certainly not been shy. There's not a GM in baseball that wants to have a guy that he traded ding up 50 HR's for the new team, and that's just the risk that Krivsky took.

it may not be all courage, as I suspect that Krivsky was averse to the risk that WMP continued to have the same productivity as his price tag increases.

but I think that he wanted to take the risk that Jr. stays healthy for a couple of seasons, while Kearns finally delivers, EdE develops, and FeLo remains cheap.

if so, then the team is "simply" a strong closer away from being interesting. They need a couple of middle gloves, too, but you can find those easily.

The WayneK mantra: health, development, closer... health, development, closer... health, development, closer....

[traderumor]

Guts?

If Krivsky really had guts, he would have held out for a better return instead of acting like this was a No-Reserve auction on EBay. There was no real reason this trade had to be made, other than Krivsky getting trigger-happy.

I look at a rotation that looks like this:

Harang
Claussen
Milton
Williams
Who Knows, but somebody's getting rocked

And now see:
Harang
Arroyo
Claussen
Milton
Williams

And I'm not missing WMPs bearded lady act quite yet. Of course, there was no reason this trade HAD to be made, but I'm not sure that a messed up roster like this one can afford waiting until trades HAVE to be made. I'm also not sure that is a valid judge of making a deal or not, either.

I see a trigger being pulled, but if I'm a GM looking at that first list and someone wants to pay me some performance for some potential that immediately improves a glaring weakness on my club, then I take the shot without reservation.

[flyer85]

like The Brave Dan O'Brien, who wouldn't trade WMP when he was on one of those hot streaks?

If you want to call Krivsky foolish, be my guest, but he's certainly not been shy.

neither was Ol' Leatherpants.

[Johnny Footstool]

like The Brave Dan O'Brien, who wouldn't trade WMP when he was on one of those hot streaks?

There has to be a middle ground between foolhardiness (Krivsky in this deal) and impotence (DanO in all deals).

As Puca pointed out on another thread, Arroyo is the kind of pitcher smart teams trade away, not trade for. The Red Sox exploited Krivsky's desperation with this deal.

Of course, there was no reason this trade HAD to be made, but I'm not sure that a messed up roster like this one can afford waiting until trades HAVE to be made. I'm also not sure that is a valid judge of making a deal or not, either.

Krivsky acted as if this was his only chance to trade Pena, and in his apparent desperation, he accepted what I think is less than market value in return. I'd say that's a valid judge of a trade and of a trader, at least at this point.