Draft advice

[Red Leader]

Here are the stats for my 10 team head to head league:

R, H, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS
IP, W, L, SV, R, HR, BB, K, ERA, K/9

I'm got stuck with the 10th spot, so I will pick 10th and 11th in the draft.

Who should I be eyeing with those first two picks.

I was going to go with 1 pitcher (someone like Carpenter or Peavy) and a hitter, and was thinking about Utley. Is taking Utley 11th too high. Not a lot of depth at 2B this year, and Utley, IMO, is the best option.

Other players I'd consider 11th: David Wright, Bobby Abreu, Jason Bay, Miguel Cabrera.

Or should I skip drafting a pitcher because there's a lot of depth this year and take two hitters, maybe Wright/Abreu/Bay/or Cabrera and Utley?

For those of you who have drafted 10th this year what was your strategy, and did it work.

I also thought about TRYING to start runs, like picking Peavy with pick 10, Utley with pick 11 (in hopes other managers reached for a SP or 2B) and then following that up with picking a RP like Rivera, Lidge, or Nathan in the 3rd round and a catcher in round 4 (to start runs at those positions). Is that a good idea?

Any help appreciated.

[IowaRed]

I would go with 2 hitters but a case could be made for taking Peavy. Wright would be one of my picks and I would probably go with either Abreu or Bay. Based on your leagues categories, I would keep an eye on Helton and Hafner.

[Red Leader]

I would go with 2 hitters but a case could be made for taking Peavy. Wright would be one of my picks and I would probably go with either Abreu or Bay. Based on your leagues categories, I would keep an eye on Helton and Hafner.

Travis Hafner is one of my favorite players. I target him every year. Problem this year is that he isn't 1B eligible. I can only use him at a UTIL spot, which isn't terrible, I'm hoping that I can grab him in the 5th round, but since I don't draft until the last pick of the 5th round, that might be asking too much.

I like the idea of taking Wright and Bay, but I'm worried that if I go that route, I'll be hurting at certain positons: 2B, SS, C, RP, and SP. If you did go with Bay and Wright, which positions would you target in rounds 3-4 (I know, it depends on who's been taken), *thinking out loud now*, but if I came back with a 3rd round pick of Harden and a 4th round pick of Rollins or Jeter, I'd have to take a RP and a 1B in rounds 5-6. No? And by the time my 7-8th round picks roll around, most of the good 2nd basemen are gone.

I just hate taking Wright so high since there's a lot of depth at 3B and I can wait to get another player, whereas if I pick Wright, I'd most likely lose out on the top players at other positions. I like David Wright a lot, he's a great player and one I'd love to have, I just think I'm strapping myself if I pick him.

What about taking Bay / Abreu and Utley? Can you tell I'm nervous about having a crappy 2nd baseman? Then if I came back with Harden and Jeter/Rollins in the 3-4th and a 1B / RP in the 5-6th, I'd be ok, I think.

[IowaRed]

I tend to give less consideration to positional scarcity than most and try to go with the best available for the settings. That's why I would go with Wright and Bay, who are both likely to be available for the 10th and 11th pick. That's pretty high for Utley and there are a couple of 2B you can get later that should be pretty good i.e. Cano, Polanco

If you go with Bay/Wright, an SP and a SS would be reasonable unless somebody else had slipped through.

[Johnny Footstool]

When I get stuck with two picks on the low end of the draft, I always take the best overall player available, then the best position-valued player available.

I picked 11th in a 12 team league this season, and I took Bay with my first pick and Utley with my second. The league required CFs, so Bay got some extra position-value. Utley usually goes late in the second round, so I knew that he wouldn't be there next time around. I didn't feel bad about taking him with the 14th pick. BTW - the guy who picked 10th took Peavy in the first round.

You just need to decide if you're better at sniffing out good starting pitching or finding a position-valued sleeper in the middle rounds. I usually do a good job with SP, so I filled my need at 2B early.

[Red Leader]

When I get stuck with two picks on the low end of the draft, I always take the best overall player available, then the best position-valued player available.

I picked 11th in a 12 team league this season, and I took Bay with my first pick and Utley with my second. The league required CFs, so Bay got some extra position-value. Utley usually goes late in the second round, so I knew that he wouldn't be there next time around. I didn't feel bad about taking him with the 14th pick. BTW - the guy who picked 10th took Peavy in the first round.

You just need to decide if you're better at sniffing out good starting pitching or finding a position-valued sleeper in the middle rounds. I usually do a good job with SP, so I filled my need at 2B early.

Thanks, Johnny.

Yeah, see the problem this year is that I've never drafted any lower than 6th. Ever. That seems weird, but I've always had luck with draft positions (and this year our commish decided that the first name he pulled out of the hat would draft 1st, and the last name 10th. It's always been the reverse, 1st name picked picks 10th, last name picked picks 1st, so I SHOULD have had the 1st pick instead of the 10th). Anyway, I'm definately better at picking pitching than hitting.

The whole debate on Wright vs Utley in the 1st round. I'm figuring Wright will go .305/32/111/102/12. I'm figuring Utley at .290/31/116/108/19. Pretty close when it comes down to it. My thinking is that if Wright is a 1st round pick, than Utley might as well be since the numbers are so close, and he plays at a position that isn't as deep.

[jmbraun773]

I would hold out on Wright, mainly because there is a lot of depth at the 3rd base position, including an Adrian Beltre that has seem to fall in the drafts I have completed already. I always like taking a pitcher in the first round, because that way you know you are getting a stud.

I wouldn't worry too much about 2nd base there are quite a few options there: Cantu, Cano, Felipe Lopez, Castillo, Vidro, etc... They don't give you huge numbers but they hit for average, steal bases, give you a few homeruns.

How I usually try to put a team together is run producers on the corners of the infield, speed in the middle infield, one speedy outfielder (i.e. Pierre) along with two long ball hitters in the outfield. If I can I try to steal a catcher with some pop late in the draft.

I will usually draft a starting pitcher with my first pick, third pick. Relief pitcher in the 4th or 5th round.

This is how my last draft turned out....my picks in order:

Johan Santana (SP)
Alfonso Soriano (2B)
Roy Halladay (SP)
Juan Pierre (OF)
Joe Nathan (RP)
Chipper Jones (3B)
Vernon Wells (OF)
Jim Edmonds (OF)
Javy Lopez (C)
F. Cordero (RP)
Tim Hudson (SP)
Jim Thome (1B)
Clint Barmes (SS)
Adrian Beltre (3B)
Jake Westbrook (SP)
Lyle Overbay (1B)
Ronnie Belliard (2B)
J. Jones (OF)
David Eckstein (SS)
Michael Barrett (C)
Tim Wakefield (SP)
David Dellucci (OF)

[Red Leader]

Alright. Although nothing is set in stone, because anything and everything could happen during the draft, I'm going to go into the draft hoping to get:

Bay in the first (OF)
Wright with the 2nd pick (3B)
Peavy, Carpenter, or Oswalt in the 3rd (SP)
and V. Martinez in the 4th (C)
I'll then come back with a RP, and a 1B in the 5th and 6th.

How's that sound? I'm pretty convinced on the 1st four picks that that's the way to go. I'm hoping V. Martinez lasts until my pick at the end of rd 3.

[HotCorner]

Alright. Although nothing is set in stone, because anything and everything could happen during the draft, I'm going to go into the draft hoping to get:

Bay in the first (OF)
Wright with the 2nd pick (3B)
Peavy, Carpenter, or Oswalt in the 3rd (SP)
and V. Martinez in the 4th (C)
I'll then come back with a RP, and a 1B in the 5th and 6th.

How's that sound? I'm pretty convinced on the 1st four picks that that's the way to go. I'm hoping V. Martinez lasts until my pick at the end of rd 3.

Nice strategy. Personally I value Martinez more due to the lack of depth at the catching position compared to OF or infielders.

[Johnny Footstool]

I wouldn't worry too much about 2nd base there are quite a few options there: Cantu, Cano, Felipe Lopez, Castillo, Vidro, etc... They don't give you huge numbers but they hit for average, steal bases, give you a few homeruns.

That's the thing about Utley -- he will give you great numbers across the board whereas most other 2B's have big holes in their games. He's in the neighborhood .300/30/100 with 75 walks, 100 runs and a dozen steals. He'll be a very good contributor to every category in Red Leader's league. So will David Wright, but 3B is quite a bit deeper.

Felipe Lopez is probably the second-best option if you don't go after Utley. After that, you might as well wait until the end of the draft and get Ronnie Belliard.

[jmbraun773]

Bay in the first (OF)
Wright with the 2nd pick (3B)
Peavy, Carpenter, or Oswalt in the 3rd (SP)
and V. Martinez in the 4th (C)
I'll then come back with a RP, and a 1B in the 5th and 6th.

Looks to be a pretty good strategy. I would think you would be able to get V. Martinez in the 4th.

[Red Leader]

That's the thing about Utley -- he will give you great numbers across the board whereas most other 2B's have big holes in their games. He's in the neighborhood .300/30/100 with 75 walks, 100 runs and a dozen steals. He'll be a very good contributor to every category in Red Leader's league. So will David Wright, but 3B is quite a bit deeper.

Felipe Lopez is probably the second-best option if you don't go after Utley. After that, you might as well wait until the end of the draft and get Ronnie Belliard.

Dang it, Johnny. Now you got me thinking about taking Utley with the 1st pick in the 2nd round, and waiting to draft a 3B later in the draft since the postion is deeper. It makes sense to me. Their numbers are nearly identical last year, and both of their numbers should improve, although I'd imagine Utley's numbers go up more since he really wasn't a full time player until maybe late April last year.

1st rd (10) Bay
2nd rd (11) Utley
3rd rd (30) Peavy, Carpenter, or Oswalt
4th rd (31) V. Martinez, or 1B if Martinez is gone
5th rd (50) RP or 1B, or 3B
6th rd (51) RP or 1B, or 3B

[HotCorner]

Player A

AVG .286 | HR 28 | RBI 117 | OBP .311 | SLG .497

vs.

Player B

AVG .291 | HR 28 | RBI 105 | OBP .376 | SLG .540

Both play the same position. Who would you select?

[Red Leader]

With Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus likely falling because of health concerns, Adrian Beltre, Melvin Mora, Hank Blalock, and to some extent Eric Chavez falling because of bad years last year, A-Rod going early (thus either team 1 or 2 won't need another 3B), and Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones picking up eligibility at the position, 3B is definately deeper than 2B. Not to mention Wright could be taken before I pick #10.

The wrench to this whole thing could be if a top 5 player like Santana, Teixeira, Ortiz, or Derrek Lee fall to the 10th spot. Then, I'm going to have to re-evaluate everything on the fly.

[Red Leader]

Player A

AVG .286 | HR 28 | RBI 117 | OBP .311 | SLG .497

vs.

Player B

AVG .291 | HR 28 | RBI 105 | OBP .376 | SLG .540

Both play the same position. Who would you select?

Doesn't seem like player A has as good of OBP skills and has a lower SLG%, although I'd have to look at his past and how old he is to see if that's what history says he is or if he is still adjusting. But without any knowledge of either of them, or their past, Player B.