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Thread: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

  1. #1
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    Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    Ok fellas, I wanna hear it. I drafted Dunn way early in my fantasy draft. He was ranked 13th overall by ESPN. What are his numbers gonna look like? Most important what will his average be? I feel if he can hit .270 he'll have a career year.

    Here goes: .267, 106 runs, 50 HR, 113 RBI, 6 SB


    I think he gets off to a horrid slow start out of the gates with alot of K's then has an excellent May-September.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    .280 BA
    .430 OBP
    .595 SLG
    1.025 OPS
    49 Homeruns
    134 walks(Reds record)

    Dunn generally gets off to a great start in April and then struggles badly in May. Look at his last three May's. Big dip in average and some power. Still a solid OBP in two of the three.

    2003

    April-.253/.382/.627-1.009 OPS

    May-.193/.274/.518-.792 OPS

    2004

    April-.328/.538/.750-1.288 OPS 28 bb/24 k(possibly the best month in Reds history, or at least top 3)

    May-.191/.345/.372-.717 OPS

    2005

    April-.292/.427/.694-1.121 OPS

    May-.200/.392/.495-.887 OPS

    For some odd reason, Dunn's batting average and power numbers have dropped off in May the last two seasons. Let's take a look at what his batting average would have looked like the last two seasons minus the month of May:

    2004-.281

    2005-.257(keep in mind he played most of the year with a fractured hand)

    So, if Dunn gets off to one of his normal hot April's and can hit around .240 or so in Aprl, then I could see him having a solid batting average in the .280 area. I went with an optomisic choice of .280.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    I think he's a lock for 50 Homeruns this year. I really do. The thing i love most about Adam Dunn is that the son of a gun plays every day. I mean it just seems like come rain or shine, the tough texan gets out there and faces the music. I really like that about his game, he's a throwback of sorts in that aspect. If he can just play 150 games this season he's gonna hit 50.

  5. #4
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    No one is ever a lock for 50 HR's.

    TMBS, I think he'll do it too.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    Alright so I'm not alone!

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    If Dunn has any protection (meaning men on base ahead of him or real hitters behind him) and pitchers can't simply pitch around him, he'll put that many more balls in to play and 50 homers comes naturally -- without a big upswing in his contact rate. If he hits .270 or above, I think 50 homers is a very real possibility. Let's just hope Narron is smart enough to never bat him lower than 4th.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    If he's 5th again i expect years like the past.

    I'd really love to see him work in the 3 spot.
    Go Gators!

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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    3rd or fourth would really make this guy happy. Why is that so hard for a ML caliber manager?

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    I could see him batting lower (5th) against lefties, but if he's anywhere but 3rd or 4th vs righties, Narron has major problems. One advantage of batting him 4th or 5th rather than 3rd is that he's more likely to either:

    a.) bat in the first inning with men on base = rbi opportunity
    b.) lead off the 2nd inning where his superior OBP becomes more valuable (as opposed to with 2 outs in the first)

    I really think 4th is the perfect spot for Dunn. Because of his penchant for taking a walk, I'm not sure I'd want him up with 2 outs in the first and nobody on.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-28-2006 at 11:26 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    Ahem.

    Projections fellas, Projections

  12. #11
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    .250 52 homers 110 RBIS..3 sac flys.
    Go Gators!

  13. #12
    OCS Prez Cant Touch This's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    .285
    74 HRs
    79 RBIs.
    175 Ks
    130 BBs

    Cincinnati comes to life in September, not because of a playoff chase, but because it becomes home to the new single-season HR record in addition to the all-time hits leader. Cincy: We sure can hit. What's this glove thingy?
    A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no holes is a danish. -- Zen Philosopher Basho

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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Cant Touch This
    .285
    74 HRs
    79 RBIs.
    175 Ks
    130 BBs

    Cincinnati comes to life in September, not because of a playoff chase, but because it becomes home to the new single-season HR record in addition to the all-time hits leader. Cincy: We sure can hit. What's this glove thingy?
    That'd be quite an impressive feat to hit .285 with 74 homeruns yet only drive in 79 runs.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

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    OCS Prez Cant Touch This's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    That's right. 74 solo shots and 5 sac flies. That's unrealistic, I know....he'd never hit 5 sac flies.
    A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no holes is a danish. -- Zen Philosopher Basho

    www.OnCampusSports.com -- college sports covered by college students

  16. #15
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's 2006 Numbers Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by KearnsyEars
    3rd or fourth would really make this guy happy. Why is that so hard for a ML caliber manager?
    The Reds need a ML caliber manager. Boone wasn't one, Miley wasn't one, and Narron doesn't appear to be one.
    I would bat Dunn second, followed by Kearns or EE, with Junior batting cleanup. Freel would lead off. Lopez would bat fifth, followed by either EE or Kearns. Womack would sell concessions.
    Oh...projections? I really have no idea, but why not? .291 average, 57 HR, 126 RBI.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."


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