Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 31

Thread: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    Has the Reds last with 78 wins in a tightly packed division. Very interesting. I wonder how much it would change if they found a 1B(Shealy) and turned 2B over to Freel.

    NL Central W L RS RA BatDelta PitDelta
    Cardinals 86 76 748 703 +9 +31
    Cubs 85 77 725 690 -21 +60
    Brewers 84 78 742 713 +2 +26
    Astros 81 81 717 716 -17 +18
    Pirates 79 83 731 755 -7 -11
    Reds 78 84 746 778 +9 -34
    Last edited by flyer85; 03-29-2006 at 12:42 PM.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    24,874

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    I don't think the division shakes out like that at all. At all. This division just isn't that strong.

    Oh, the Reds may end up last, but no way do the teams cluster like that. There's not nearly that kind of roster parity in the Central.

  4. #3
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    I don't think the division shakes out like that at all. At all. This division just isn't that strong.

    Oh, the Reds may end up last, but no way do the teams cluster like that. There's not nearly that kind of roster parity in the Central.
    PECOTA clusters the entire league between 88 and 70 wins(not so the AL which goes from 94 to 61).

    Olney article today about how scouts have told them just aren't any real good teams in the NL(I tend to agree).
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  5. #4
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    24,874

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    I think the Cubs will count themselves lucky to win 75 games this season.

  6. #5
    Four Eyed Phenom
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    7

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    I agree. No way the Cubs finish second. If Houston collapses the way people say they will, I'd give second to the Brewers.

  7. #6
    Go Redlegs!!!!
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    280

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    The day the Brewers finish in 2nd place... I mean, wouldn't icicles come out of volcanos, etc?
    "Its easy to love a winner like LeafGuard." -Marty Brennaman commenting on the Reds pitching staff.

  8. #7
    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    St. Louis
    Posts
    3,515

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    Quote Originally Posted by Sabo4Life
    I agree. No way the Cubs finish second. If Houston collapses the way people say they will, I'd give second to the Brewers.
    I would too. The Cubs and Astros just don't look that strong. Especially since you never know how many innings Prior and Wood will pitch or if Clemens will return. The Brewers and Cardinals could fight for the division crown.

  9. #8
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    13,782

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    Provided they are healthy, the Cards will win at least 90 games. You can't deny that pitching staff.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  10. #9
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    Provided they are healthy, the Cards will win at least 90 games. You can't deny that pitching staff.
    could be offset by the offense(or lack of it) from Spivey, Molina, Taguchi, Encarnacion, etc).
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  11. #10
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    portland, oregon
    Posts
    14,742

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    that would make for an interesting divisional race
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  12. #11
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,898

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    I think that looks a lot like what I expect. You have to realize of course that PECOTA is running 1000's of iterations which means all of those are average values. In reality, a good chunk of the actual results will vary quite a bit from average, so you won't likely see everybody grouped up so much.

    That said, I think the division winner this year will be in the 90-92 range and that everybody will win 70 (except maybe the Pirates)
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    91

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    Has the Reds last with 78 wins in a tightly packed division. Very interesting. I wonder how much it would change if they found a 1B(Shealy) and turned 2B over to Freel.

    NL Central W L RS RA BatDelta PitDelta
    Cubs 85 77 725 690 -21 +60
    No. chance.

  14. #13
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    The Commonwealth
    Posts
    8,346

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    I think this division will be very very tight. Yes the Cards are the best, but I just think we'll have a huge cluster of teams. No team will run away and hide, and no team will fall out of it by May 1. I could absolutely see the final W-L totals ending up in that range, though maybe not those teams in particular.

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
    Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
    Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
    University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
    Cincinnati Bengals - None
    Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98

  15. #14
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    13,782

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    could be offset by the offense(or lack of it) from Spivey, Molina, Taguchi, Encarnacion, etc).
    We discussed that on another thread. They didn't have much production from RF, LF, or 2B last season, and they still blew away the rest of the league. I don't think they lost very much in terms of offense.

    EdE can equal the production they got from LF last season. Spivey is a slight downgrade. Bigbie is a huge downgrade. A healthy Scott Rolen offsets those shortcomings.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  16. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Redsland
    Posts
    830

    Re: PECOTA projected NL Central Standings

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    We discussed that on another thread. They didn't have much production from RF, LF, or 2B last season, and they still blew away the rest of the league. I don't think they lost very much in terms of offense.

    EdE can equal the production they got from LF last season. Spivey is a slight downgrade. Bigbie is a huge downgrade. A healthy Scott Rolen offsets those shortcomings.
    They still have the big three in the middle (albert, scott, jim) and David Eckstein is scrappy enough to lead of. They'll still score some runs.
    Weathers' W/L when I am attending (2009): 0-1


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25