Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
Guess what? You just allowed 100 fewer runs in 2006 than you did in 2005. Voila! I'm not saying that it IS going to happen. However, I think you can pretty easily see how the staff shaves 100 runs off it's total, collectively, without anybody performing drastically over expectations. All we need is for them not to suck quite as hard.
Not quiet, because you've also shaved off about 300 IP that the Reds will need to finish out the season. Your example only covers about 127 games and your run totals add up to 615 runs scored. That gives us a difference of 174 runs. The Reds will have to give those extra 300 innings to pitchers with a 5.20 ERA or better to reduce their runs allowed by 111. I don't have your faith that the Reds can do it.

For starters, Milton will have to reduce his RA by about three runs per game or pitch 244 innings to get the 5.20 ERA your using. Arroyo will probably have 200 IP instead of the 153 your using. That alone bumps his RA from 80 to 104. Don't forget, Paul Wilson and Grant Balfour are lingering somewhere in the shadows awaiting their opportunity to add to the runs allowed totals.

Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
If you read the full PECOTA predictions article over at BP, it basically makes the same point about our pitching luck. If we become pitching "lucky" rather than pitching "unlucky" we could easily swing 10 or 12 games.
I did read the article and Nate Silver sounded less than optimistic in my opinion. I'd like to be more enthusiastic about the upcoming season but I fully expect the pitching to suck just as hard as it has the past couple of seasons.